October Report Cards, Part 2

Note: Records are prior to games on November 1st.

Nashville Predators (6-5-2)
Grade: C
Would it really be Nashville Predators hockey if we weren't talking about a sputtering offense and a pretty good defense? Seems like every year the Predators insist on trying to win every game 2-1 and all anyone ever talks about is how tough they are to play against. They need to work on maintaining leads in the next few games, as they blew a 3-0 first period lead in Phoenix the other night, losing 5-4 in a shootout.

New Jersey Devils (3-5-4)
Grade: D
Hard to make an argument for a group that's lost nine of 12 games so far and is towards the bottom of the NHL in scoring while also in the bottom half in defense. Given the dearth of offensive talent on this team, the power play has been pretty good, coupled with an average penalty kill. The signing of Ryane Clowe has not worked out for this team, as I expected.

New York Islanders (4-5-3)
Grade: C-
I still believe that the Islanders are a better team than their record indicates and what they've shown so far this season. They're putting the puck in the net and have been good on special teams so far, but last night's 57-shot effort in Ottawa aside they're not winning that battle and they haven't been able to keep the puck out of their net.

New York Rangers (5-7-0)
Grade: C-
They get a bit of a pass due to all the injuries they've sustained thus far, but they still haven't been playing good hockey. The offense hasn't hit its stride yet, though that's to be expected when it has yet to be at full strength. The special teams have been pretty good so far but the Rangers are the NHL's worst team at 5 on 5 this season.

Ottawa Senators (4-6-2)
Grade: D+
Yikes, there are a number of defensive issues with this team. They were already 28th in the NHL in shot differential before last night's -26 against the Islanders. Goal scoring hasn't been a problem for the Senators and they've also been pretty good 5 on 5 and on the penalty kill, so I expect them to turn it around soon. They just have to avoid the defensive breakdowns and sustain the forecheck better.

Philadelphia Flyers (3-8-0)
Grade: F-
Yes, the Flyers get an F-, the worst possible grade on this scale. Their grade is even worse than the Sabres, Panthers, and Oilers because Philadelphia was expected to have a bounce back year. They've been beaten soundly all over the ice and some of their best players haven't shown up yet this season. Not that it factors into their grade, but last night's 7-0 loss at home to Washington is a microcosm of the laughable failure this team has suffered.

Phoenix Coyotes (9-3-2)
Grade: B+
Phoenix is looking like a serious contender out west, and the shocking thing to me is that they're tied for third in the NHL in scoring. The defense hasn't been as sharp as we're used to seeing under head coach Dave Tippett, but aside from that they are firing on all cylinders. They have the most points by defensemen in the NHL, and the trio of Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Derek Morris, and Keith Yandle has combined for eight goals and 23 assists through the team's first 14 games.

Pittsburgh Penguins (9-4-0)
Grade: A-
Props to the Penguins for being the class of a bad division so far, because even with Evgeni Malkin's recent scoring drought they're still winning games. Jussi Jokinen has been on fire with six goals in October. Marc-Andre Fleury has been good, and it's really helped this team get settled in through the first month. The penalty kill has been a bit weak so far, but there's plenty of season left for that to improve.

San Jose Sharks (10-1-2)
Grade: A+
The Sharks are the NHL's best team through October, though fans in Colorado and St. Louis could easily make cases for their teams. Rookie Tomas Hertl has cooled off after his ridiculous start to the season, but now Joe Pavelski has the hot stick and it goes to show that their depth is their biggest weapon. Antti Niemi has been a brick wall in net, but I wonder if he's getting overused early on.

St. Louis Blues (7-1-2)
Grade: A
A light schedule in October has seen the Blues play just ten games (not including last night's win over Florida), but that hasn't stopped them from making quite an impression in the early going. If you haven't seen this team play yet, you need to fix that problem. Over the years I've never thought of the Blues as a particularly fun team to watch, but this season they are making me tune in regularly with their inspired play at both ends of the ice.

Tampa Bay Lightning (8-4-0)
Grade: B+
They've been impressive so far, but this is once again a stereotypical Lightning start to a season. They're always the team that comes out of the gate hot, but then as time goes on their defensive issues catch up to them and they fall back into the pack. All of their metrics look good except for the shot differential, where they've been outshot by 1.4 per game through the end of October. They need to get that number positive.

Toronto Maple Leafs (10-4-0)
Grade: A-
I had a feeling that the Leafs would be a solid team this season, but I didn't expect a 10-4 run through the first month of the season. There's a huge red flag with this team, though, and it's possession. The Leafs have been terrible in the faceoff circle and are 29th in the league in shot differential. However, they have won every game in which they outshot their opponent, and they are 4-2 in games that they have trailed after either the first or second period.

Vancouver Canucks (9-5-1)
Grade: B
This grade would be higher if John Tortorella hadn't already made their power play as horrible as he did the Rangers' during his tenure in New York. They're getting scoring from many sources, but not all at once and it has left them in the middle of the NHL in scoring. The penalty kill has been very stingy so far and Roberto Luongo is off to a nice start. They're headed in the right direction.

Washington Capitals (5-7-0)
Grade: C-
They don't deserve a higher grade than this for their play in October, but they get an A++ for their 7-0 win in Philadelphia last night (and it was without Ovechkin too). The problem for the Caps is even strength play; they're a minus in that department and it's led to their sub-.500 record even though their power play and penalty kill rank third and second, respectively.

Winnipeg Jets (5-7-2)
Grade: D
I think it's time to end things with Ondrej Pavelec. He's a bad goalie, and Al Montoya has played wonderfully in his limited playing time so far. Stands to reason that they should give Montoya more starts, right? The offense has not produced so far, the new acquisitions have not fit into the lineup well and the power play has been punchless. Their 44.1% on faceoffs is the second-worst in the league, only ahead of Calgary.

30 Teams, 30 Days - Tampa Bay Lightning

Take away the fact that the Lightning had the first and second highest scorers in the league last year, and their season was pretty terrible. Martin St. Louis took home the Art Ross trophy with 60 points in the shortened season (a 102.5 point pace over a full 82 games) and Steven Stamkos was not far behind, registering 57 points. This offseason, Tampa shocked its fanbase when it bought out captain Vincent Lecavalier and replaced him with... Valterri Filppula. They also allowed backup goalie Mathieu Garon and depth forward Benoit Pouliot to walk in free agency. In a new division that will prove to be much tougher than the old Southeast was, the Lightning face an uphill battle this year. The offense can keep them in games, but they can't stop anyone, either.

Projected Forward Lines:

Ryan Malone - Steven Stamkos - Martin St. Louis
Jonathan Drouin - Valterri Filppula - Teddy Purcell
Alex Killorn - Nate Thompson - Richard Panik
Tom Pyatt - Dana Tyrell - B.J. Crombeen
Tyler Johnson - Pierre-Cedric Labrie

If Drouin winds up on the top line, it'll be a scary one for opponents to face. As it stands, I like Malone there for now due to his experience. Purcell gives the Lightning another 60-point scorer that other teams will have to respect, and pairing him with a distributor like Filppula could cause a rise in goals for him. The bottom six is sort of a work in progress, but the team likes the way Killorn is progressing and so do I. Panik begins his first full season in the NHL with raised expectations, and if nothing else his name must be fun to say for broadcast teams (I really should do an all-name team for the NHL). Crombeen and Labrie provide protection for the top guys with their toughness and readiness to drop the gloves.

Projected Defensive Pairings:

Victor Hedman - Sami Salo
Matthew Carle - Radko Gudas
Eric Brewer - Keith Aulie
Andrej Sustr

I wonder if this defense will ever get better. When your "fix" to a defense that is only that in name is to bring in more offensive defensemen like Salo and Carle in recent years, you aren't going to see improvement in the stats that matter. Tampa Bay finished 26th in the NHL in goals against per game (3.06) and 20th in shots against per game (30.2), so this defense needs to make dramatic improvements this year if they're going to have a chance to be in the playoff picture. However, this is also a work in progress, and we'll probably wind up seeing the same porous "defense" we're used to seeing from Tampa Bay.

Goaltending:

Ben Bishop
Anders Lindback

Well, at least they have two goaltenders who cover a lot of net! Bishop is 6'7", and Lindback is 6'6". Lindback didn't play very well as the starter last season, prompting the trade for Bishop that sent Cory Conacher and a 4th-round pick to Ottawa. Bishop stepped in and performed nicely, so he probably has the inside track on the starting job at the time of this post. I'm guessing we're going to see a 1A and 1B situation here, but that doesn't mean you should draft either of them in fantasy. The team in front of these guys is not nearly responsible enough defensively to provide significant help. It's going to take a Herculean effort from one or both of them to get this team into the playoff chase.

Special Teams:

The Lightning finished with a respectable 19% power play success rate, good for 13th in the NHL and that might improve with Drouin in tow. Expect Salo to shoulder much of the load when it comes to being the field general out there, and with Stamkos, St. Louis, Drouin, Purcell, Malone, and Killorn likely comprising the power play units, he has scorers to feed the puck to. The Lightning were +8 on the differential last year but were not successful on the penalty kill, finishing 19th in the NHL at 80.6%. The lower percentage can easily be attributed to a general lack of defensive skill, but we'll see if it can improve.

X-Factor:

Can one of the goalies put the team on his back and steal games? That's the burning question surrounding the Lightning. We know they'll score goals. We know they'll be awful defensively. We don't know if either Bishop or Lindback are good enough to stand on their heads when called upon. If one or both can get their numbers in line with the upper-tier goalies (not even talking about Lundqvist, more like Elliott or Hiller), then I'd consider it a success. Whether that translates to wins remains to be seen.

The Lightning will make the playoffs if...

... they discover how to play defense, the top line posts outrageous scoring totals, and the goalies play like brick walls. It's going to take a lot for this team to make the playoffs. Too many teams to climb over and there's a large gap between where I believe they'll finish and the team one spot above them. They don't have the luxury of beating up on weak Southeast Division anymore (well, they can still do that to Florida) and so they're going to have to play up to the competition on most nights. For a team that looks like it's a year or two away, this is the reality.

The Lightning will miss the playoffs if...

... their level of play is the same or close to what it was last year. It really is that simple. Too many mistakes, too many shots against, too many pucks in their net. While it would be nice to see them surprise and factor into the playoff race, I don't see it happening this year. They would be better served spending time on seeing what works and shaping their roster for the future.