30 Teams, 30 Days - New Jersey Devils

What an offseason it has been for the New Jersey Devils. Their best player "retired" (I'm not going to rant on it; if I do it'll be a waste of everyone's time), they let arguably their second-best player, David Clarkson, walk in free agency. They made a splash at the draft when they traded the 9th overall pick to Vancouver for Corey Schneider. They went out and signed other team's throwaways, like Jaromir Jagr, Ryane Clowe, Rostislav Olesz, and Andrei Loktionov. They also got Michael Ryder in the hopes that he can replace much of all that lost scoring. Lots of questions surround the Devils this year. Losing two of the best players from an already subpar team while adding guys who either haven't panned out thus far or are on the tail end of their careers (except Schneider, who is neither of those and should do well this season) doesn't exactly sound like a recipe for success. However, I've seen quite a few mediocre teams make miracles for themselves in my years as a hockey fan, so maybe this team has one in them.

Projected Forward Lines:

Adam Henrique - Travis Zajac - Michael Ryder
Ryane Clowe - Patrik Elias - Jaromir Jagr
Stephen Gionta - Dainius Zubrus - Steve Bernier
Mattias Tedenby - Andrei Loktionov - Krys Barch
Rostislav Olesz - Ryan Carter

I like Henrique on the top line over Elias because in my mind, it's time to pass the torch. The old guard in New Jersey has had a great run, I don't think anyone in their right mind would deny that; but it's time to move on. The Devils drafted Henrique to be a top line player, and with now two full seasons under his belt, it's time to put him in that role and see how he does. He'll have talented veterans in Zajac and Ryder to work with, so Henrique will be able to fill either the sniper or playmaker role in this situation. The rest of the forward group holds many questions and few answers. What can Jagr do at 41? Can Clowe bounce back? Do the Devils have more than 1 1/2 scoring lines? How will they play defensively? Point being, I'm not sold on this group of forwards.

Projected Defensive Pairings:

Adam Larsson - Anton Volchenkov
Andy Greene - Bryce Salvador
Marek Zidlicky - Mark Fayne
Peter Harrold

The blueline is unchanged from last year, and that's not so bad considering they finished in the top half of the league in goals against last year (13th, 2.54 per game). These guys play a responsible game and rarely make egregious mistakes. This an aging group; Fayne and Larsson are the only defensemen listed here who are younger than 30. However, defensemen usually age more gracefully than forwards. One would have to wonder where the offense will come from on this unit. Zidlicky led them with 19 points last season, Greene was second with 16. Next in line? Fayne and Larsson with six apiece. Someone needs to step up, the Devils are hurting offensively enough as it is.

Goaltending:

Corey Schneider
Martin Brodeur

You're probably calling me a blasphemer for listing Schneider as the starter. He probably won't be the starter on opening night, but he's going to play more games than Brodeur and will be the #1 goalie by season's end. The Devils have 22 back-to-backs this season, and Schneider will probably play at least once during all of them. Add in instances where he gets both starts and other opportunities to rest Marty, and I believe Schneider plays more than 41 games. While it may not be the most consistent solution, it's still a better goaltending tandem than most teams in the NHL.

Special Teams:

New Jersey was tied for 20th in the NHL on the power play last season, finishing with a pedestrian 15.9% conversion rate. This year, sans Kovalchuk and Clarkson and adding Jagr and Ryder, I'd say it's a wash. This will be another season of inconsistency and dry spells from the man advantage unit. They did win the penalty battle though, going +7 last year, so that's something to try to replicate this year. The usually excellent penalty kill slipped a bit in the shortened season, finishing at 81.1%, which tied for 15th in the NHL with the rival Rangers. The Devils have historically been a good defensive team, so I'll say that last year deserves a mulligan and they'll be right back at the top of the PK charts this season.

X-Factor:

I think the answer to this category is a question. How many, if any, of the moves they made this offseason work out? I'm not just talking about the guys they signed, either. I'm also including the decision to not offer Clarkson a new contract in this section. Call me a skeptic, but I'm not sure that anyone besides Ryder pans out for the Devils. Ryder should get his usual 30 goals and be a productive player in other areas as well, but that doesn't replace Kovalchuk and Clarkson. Not even close. Here's hoping that a change of scenery is what Loktionov needs, though. He couldn't find a spot on the Kings' roster so it'll be greatly beneficial to him if he can stick with the Devils.

The Devils will make the playoffs if...

... they pull their usual "we've been written off, nobody's expecting us to get here" act. There really aren't any other conditions here. The Devils are one of those teams that have winning down to a science, no matter who is on the roster. The only difference for them from year to year is whether or not the formula works. The division gets tougher with the additions of Washington, Columbus, and Carolina, but New Jersey has a history of finding ways to win. I'm not saying they're going to make the playoffs, but don't be surprised if they sneak in.

The Devils will miss the playoffs if...

... we see a season where the most talented teams rise to the top. On paper, this is a 7th or last place team in the Metropolitan Division. I don't like them more than any other team in this division, save for possibly Carolina now that Joni Pitkanen has been ruled out for the entire season. Washington got stronger after signing Grabovski, Philadelphia can't be as injury-riddled as they were a year ago, the Isles and Jackets are in the process of establishing themselves as perennial contenders, and the Rangers and Penguins are far better in nearly every area of the game... it's going to be an uphill battle for the Devils this year. It's crazy to say that when you consider that this team was in the Stanley Cup Finals just two years ago, but that's the cyclical nature of the modern NHL.

How Ilya Kovalchuk Screwed New Jersey

If you're like me, you were shocked to learn of Ilya Kovalchuk's sudden retirement from the NHL, at age 30. If you haven't heard about it yet... well, sorry for the lack of a spoiler alert, but yes, it's true. Kovalchuk left 12 years and $77 million out of his original 15-year, $102 million contract on the table because he simply wants to return home to Russia and play in the KHL. He turned down being "the guy" in Newark, just so he can go home and half ass his way to being one of, if not the best player that the KHL has ever seen. Don't get me wrong, the KHL has some talent, but let's be real, it's not on the NHL's level. There are many (the bulk being Devils fans, I would assume) who are sad to see him go. By most accounts, he's an exciting player to watch, always a threat to score, and has good offensive vision, but he's quite the liability in his own end. And I'll grant all of that. What's my reaction to Kovalchuk leaving for Mother Russia?

Good riddance.

Had this come about before free agency started, or right after the end of the season, I'd have understood. However, let's look at what New Jersey has done so far this offseason:

• They inexplicably signed Marek Zidlicky to a 1-year deal worth $3 million. I heard plenty of Devils fans calling for Zidlicky's head by the end of this past season. He can still skate well and he moves the puck, but the Devils have a loaded defense corps in their farm system. In what's looking like a rebuilding year, it's time to give the kids a crack at the big show.
• In what was undoubtedly their best move so far, the Devils picked up Michael Ryder for 2 years and $7 million total. Ryder only appeared in 27 games for Montreal this past season, but he was on pace for 30 goals and 63 points over an 82-game season. He'll be called upon to replace the possibly fluky season that David Clarkson had two seasons ago, when he scored 30 goals in 80 games (note: he did score 15 in 48 games this past season, but I'm not banking on another 30 from him... not on Toronto), and I think Ryder can do the job adequately. He's still a productive player.
• They gave the following gem of a contract to Ryane Clowe: 5 years, $24.25 million. We're talking about a guy who had as many concussions (three) as he did goals this past season, and all three of his goals came after the trade deadline, when the Sharks dealt him to the Rangers. What boggles my mind is that they let Clarkson walk, I'm guessing because they didn't think he was worth the money that Toronto gave him (7 years at $5.25 million per), yet they hand Clowe a fat contract after the guy completely wasted his contract year.
• They traded the #9 overall pick in the recent draft (which became Bo Horvat, a center out of the OHL) to Vancouver in exchange for Corey Schneider. Good on them to get their "goaltender of the future" situation sorted out, even though it cost them a top pick in one of the deepest drafts we've seen in a long time. There's also the issue of them not having a first round pick in next year's draft (more on that in a bit), but still, I believe it was a move they had to make. 
• Not finished yet, the Devils inked the remarkably unspectacular Rostislav Olesz to a 1-year, $1 million contract. Olesz had his most productive campaign for Florida in the 2009-10 season, posting 29 points in 78 games. He hasn't played many meaningful minutes since then and has played in the AHL for the better part of the last two seasons. However, he should get a crack at making the team, since it's a one-way contract.

Given all of these occurrences, Kovalchuk's retirement coming about now, as opposed to a month ago, has to be considered a dagger to the Devils' hopes of contention next season and beyond. While it does free up $6.55 million in cap room per season, we're talking about the team that ranked 21st in attendance a season ago. The Devils have been in dire straits financially for a few years now, and with a volatile ownership situation to boot. They did turn a profit this year, but owner Jeff Vanderbeek missed a $3 million interest payment in April and the company that operates the Prudential Center, Devils Arena, owes $170 million to lenders. For the record, I can't see them moving out of New Jersey, but I digress. Kovalchuk puts asses in seats - that much is obvious. Without him, and Marty Brodeur likely done after next season, the cupboard's pretty bare in Newark. We're looking at a nucleus of Elias, Schneider, Zajac, Henrique (if he re-signs), Zubrus, Ryder, and Clowe, with more aging defensemen than I'd like to count. You could certainly do worse than that in terms of a roster, but that bunch doesn't exactly scream "playoffs".  Plus, and this is possibly the worst of all, the Devils don't have a first round pick in next year's draft. Why? Because they circumvented the salary cap when they tried to sign Kovalchuk the first time, and they deferred the league's penalty of docking a first rounder in any one draft from 2011-2014 until now. Not only that, but on paper, this roster might produce a pick in the top five. In the short-term, they're boned unless new investors come along or the team is sold outright.

However, if they can weather the storm, I believe that the Devils will be better off in the long run. They won't have to worry about Kovalchuk playing zero defense on a nightly basis, nor do they have to worry about him pulling any more dick moves like this. The extra cap space, theoretically, means that they can go out and get some free agent talent in the future, or make a trade for a big contract without worrying about having to dump salary the other way. Given the way GM Lou Lamoriello has spent money so far, though, I wouldn't count on much in the realm of intelligence on that front. They'll be able to build around Adam Henrique and their young defense, along with Schneider, and probably get back to playing the type of hockey that we're all used to seeing: gritty, defensive, and bend-but-don't-break. Even in the ludicrously-stacked Patrick Division (I'm calling the divisions by their old names until the NHL says otherwise), the Devils can still be competitive. It's going to be a few years before we can think about calling them contenders again, but the NHL has a flow to it, and the Devils will be back someday.

Let's hope that they learned a lesson from this, and that's to always be wary of signing and/or drafting Russian players. Between Radulov, the Kostitsyns, and now Kovalchuk, the threat of defection to the KHL is as prevalent as ever.