October Report Cards, Part 2

Note: Records are prior to games on November 1st.

Nashville Predators (6-5-2)
Grade: C
Would it really be Nashville Predators hockey if we weren't talking about a sputtering offense and a pretty good defense? Seems like every year the Predators insist on trying to win every game 2-1 and all anyone ever talks about is how tough they are to play against. They need to work on maintaining leads in the next few games, as they blew a 3-0 first period lead in Phoenix the other night, losing 5-4 in a shootout.

New Jersey Devils (3-5-4)
Grade: D
Hard to make an argument for a group that's lost nine of 12 games so far and is towards the bottom of the NHL in scoring while also in the bottom half in defense. Given the dearth of offensive talent on this team, the power play has been pretty good, coupled with an average penalty kill. The signing of Ryane Clowe has not worked out for this team, as I expected.

New York Islanders (4-5-3)
Grade: C-
I still believe that the Islanders are a better team than their record indicates and what they've shown so far this season. They're putting the puck in the net and have been good on special teams so far, but last night's 57-shot effort in Ottawa aside they're not winning that battle and they haven't been able to keep the puck out of their net.

New York Rangers (5-7-0)
Grade: C-
They get a bit of a pass due to all the injuries they've sustained thus far, but they still haven't been playing good hockey. The offense hasn't hit its stride yet, though that's to be expected when it has yet to be at full strength. The special teams have been pretty good so far but the Rangers are the NHL's worst team at 5 on 5 this season.

Ottawa Senators (4-6-2)
Grade: D+
Yikes, there are a number of defensive issues with this team. They were already 28th in the NHL in shot differential before last night's -26 against the Islanders. Goal scoring hasn't been a problem for the Senators and they've also been pretty good 5 on 5 and on the penalty kill, so I expect them to turn it around soon. They just have to avoid the defensive breakdowns and sustain the forecheck better.

Philadelphia Flyers (3-8-0)
Grade: F-
Yes, the Flyers get an F-, the worst possible grade on this scale. Their grade is even worse than the Sabres, Panthers, and Oilers because Philadelphia was expected to have a bounce back year. They've been beaten soundly all over the ice and some of their best players haven't shown up yet this season. Not that it factors into their grade, but last night's 7-0 loss at home to Washington is a microcosm of the laughable failure this team has suffered.

Phoenix Coyotes (9-3-2)
Grade: B+
Phoenix is looking like a serious contender out west, and the shocking thing to me is that they're tied for third in the NHL in scoring. The defense hasn't been as sharp as we're used to seeing under head coach Dave Tippett, but aside from that they are firing on all cylinders. They have the most points by defensemen in the NHL, and the trio of Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Derek Morris, and Keith Yandle has combined for eight goals and 23 assists through the team's first 14 games.

Pittsburgh Penguins (9-4-0)
Grade: A-
Props to the Penguins for being the class of a bad division so far, because even with Evgeni Malkin's recent scoring drought they're still winning games. Jussi Jokinen has been on fire with six goals in October. Marc-Andre Fleury has been good, and it's really helped this team get settled in through the first month. The penalty kill has been a bit weak so far, but there's plenty of season left for that to improve.

San Jose Sharks (10-1-2)
Grade: A+
The Sharks are the NHL's best team through October, though fans in Colorado and St. Louis could easily make cases for their teams. Rookie Tomas Hertl has cooled off after his ridiculous start to the season, but now Joe Pavelski has the hot stick and it goes to show that their depth is their biggest weapon. Antti Niemi has been a brick wall in net, but I wonder if he's getting overused early on.

St. Louis Blues (7-1-2)
Grade: A
A light schedule in October has seen the Blues play just ten games (not including last night's win over Florida), but that hasn't stopped them from making quite an impression in the early going. If you haven't seen this team play yet, you need to fix that problem. Over the years I've never thought of the Blues as a particularly fun team to watch, but this season they are making me tune in regularly with their inspired play at both ends of the ice.

Tampa Bay Lightning (8-4-0)
Grade: B+
They've been impressive so far, but this is once again a stereotypical Lightning start to a season. They're always the team that comes out of the gate hot, but then as time goes on their defensive issues catch up to them and they fall back into the pack. All of their metrics look good except for the shot differential, where they've been outshot by 1.4 per game through the end of October. They need to get that number positive.

Toronto Maple Leafs (10-4-0)
Grade: A-
I had a feeling that the Leafs would be a solid team this season, but I didn't expect a 10-4 run through the first month of the season. There's a huge red flag with this team, though, and it's possession. The Leafs have been terrible in the faceoff circle and are 29th in the league in shot differential. However, they have won every game in which they outshot their opponent, and they are 4-2 in games that they have trailed after either the first or second period.

Vancouver Canucks (9-5-1)
Grade: B
This grade would be higher if John Tortorella hadn't already made their power play as horrible as he did the Rangers' during his tenure in New York. They're getting scoring from many sources, but not all at once and it has left them in the middle of the NHL in scoring. The penalty kill has been very stingy so far and Roberto Luongo is off to a nice start. They're headed in the right direction.

Washington Capitals (5-7-0)
Grade: C-
They don't deserve a higher grade than this for their play in October, but they get an A++ for their 7-0 win in Philadelphia last night (and it was without Ovechkin too). The problem for the Caps is even strength play; they're a minus in that department and it's led to their sub-.500 record even though their power play and penalty kill rank third and second, respectively.

Winnipeg Jets (5-7-2)
Grade: D
I think it's time to end things with Ondrej Pavelec. He's a bad goalie, and Al Montoya has played wonderfully in his limited playing time so far. Stands to reason that they should give Montoya more starts, right? The offense has not produced so far, the new acquisitions have not fit into the lineup well and the power play has been punchless. Their 44.1% on faceoffs is the second-worst in the league, only ahead of Calgary.

30 Teams, 30 Days - New Jersey Devils

What an offseason it has been for the New Jersey Devils. Their best player "retired" (I'm not going to rant on it; if I do it'll be a waste of everyone's time), they let arguably their second-best player, David Clarkson, walk in free agency. They made a splash at the draft when they traded the 9th overall pick to Vancouver for Corey Schneider. They went out and signed other team's throwaways, like Jaromir Jagr, Ryane Clowe, Rostislav Olesz, and Andrei Loktionov. They also got Michael Ryder in the hopes that he can replace much of all that lost scoring. Lots of questions surround the Devils this year. Losing two of the best players from an already subpar team while adding guys who either haven't panned out thus far or are on the tail end of their careers (except Schneider, who is neither of those and should do well this season) doesn't exactly sound like a recipe for success. However, I've seen quite a few mediocre teams make miracles for themselves in my years as a hockey fan, so maybe this team has one in them.

Projected Forward Lines:

Adam Henrique - Travis Zajac - Michael Ryder
Ryane Clowe - Patrik Elias - Jaromir Jagr
Stephen Gionta - Dainius Zubrus - Steve Bernier
Mattias Tedenby - Andrei Loktionov - Krys Barch
Rostislav Olesz - Ryan Carter

I like Henrique on the top line over Elias because in my mind, it's time to pass the torch. The old guard in New Jersey has had a great run, I don't think anyone in their right mind would deny that; but it's time to move on. The Devils drafted Henrique to be a top line player, and with now two full seasons under his belt, it's time to put him in that role and see how he does. He'll have talented veterans in Zajac and Ryder to work with, so Henrique will be able to fill either the sniper or playmaker role in this situation. The rest of the forward group holds many questions and few answers. What can Jagr do at 41? Can Clowe bounce back? Do the Devils have more than 1 1/2 scoring lines? How will they play defensively? Point being, I'm not sold on this group of forwards.

Projected Defensive Pairings:

Adam Larsson - Anton Volchenkov
Andy Greene - Bryce Salvador
Marek Zidlicky - Mark Fayne
Peter Harrold

The blueline is unchanged from last year, and that's not so bad considering they finished in the top half of the league in goals against last year (13th, 2.54 per game). These guys play a responsible game and rarely make egregious mistakes. This an aging group; Fayne and Larsson are the only defensemen listed here who are younger than 30. However, defensemen usually age more gracefully than forwards. One would have to wonder where the offense will come from on this unit. Zidlicky led them with 19 points last season, Greene was second with 16. Next in line? Fayne and Larsson with six apiece. Someone needs to step up, the Devils are hurting offensively enough as it is.

Goaltending:

Corey Schneider
Martin Brodeur

You're probably calling me a blasphemer for listing Schneider as the starter. He probably won't be the starter on opening night, but he's going to play more games than Brodeur and will be the #1 goalie by season's end. The Devils have 22 back-to-backs this season, and Schneider will probably play at least once during all of them. Add in instances where he gets both starts and other opportunities to rest Marty, and I believe Schneider plays more than 41 games. While it may not be the most consistent solution, it's still a better goaltending tandem than most teams in the NHL.

Special Teams:

New Jersey was tied for 20th in the NHL on the power play last season, finishing with a pedestrian 15.9% conversion rate. This year, sans Kovalchuk and Clarkson and adding Jagr and Ryder, I'd say it's a wash. This will be another season of inconsistency and dry spells from the man advantage unit. They did win the penalty battle though, going +7 last year, so that's something to try to replicate this year. The usually excellent penalty kill slipped a bit in the shortened season, finishing at 81.1%, which tied for 15th in the NHL with the rival Rangers. The Devils have historically been a good defensive team, so I'll say that last year deserves a mulligan and they'll be right back at the top of the PK charts this season.

X-Factor:

I think the answer to this category is a question. How many, if any, of the moves they made this offseason work out? I'm not just talking about the guys they signed, either. I'm also including the decision to not offer Clarkson a new contract in this section. Call me a skeptic, but I'm not sure that anyone besides Ryder pans out for the Devils. Ryder should get his usual 30 goals and be a productive player in other areas as well, but that doesn't replace Kovalchuk and Clarkson. Not even close. Here's hoping that a change of scenery is what Loktionov needs, though. He couldn't find a spot on the Kings' roster so it'll be greatly beneficial to him if he can stick with the Devils.

The Devils will make the playoffs if...

... they pull their usual "we've been written off, nobody's expecting us to get here" act. There really aren't any other conditions here. The Devils are one of those teams that have winning down to a science, no matter who is on the roster. The only difference for them from year to year is whether or not the formula works. The division gets tougher with the additions of Washington, Columbus, and Carolina, but New Jersey has a history of finding ways to win. I'm not saying they're going to make the playoffs, but don't be surprised if they sneak in.

The Devils will miss the playoffs if...

... we see a season where the most talented teams rise to the top. On paper, this is a 7th or last place team in the Metropolitan Division. I don't like them more than any other team in this division, save for possibly Carolina now that Joni Pitkanen has been ruled out for the entire season. Washington got stronger after signing Grabovski, Philadelphia can't be as injury-riddled as they were a year ago, the Isles and Jackets are in the process of establishing themselves as perennial contenders, and the Rangers and Penguins are far better in nearly every area of the game... it's going to be an uphill battle for the Devils this year. It's crazy to say that when you consider that this team was in the Stanley Cup Finals just two years ago, but that's the cyclical nature of the modern NHL.

Rumor Mill: Top FA Signed, Jagr To Retire After Season?

According to TSN, free agent center Mikhail Grabovski has signed a one-year deal with the Washington Capitals. The move comes as little surprise, as Washington needs centers and Grabovski will be able to fill a top-six role for them. A television outlet in Grabovski's native Belarus, ONT, said that the contract is worth $3 million. I believe this is a good signing for Washington, and they were able to get him at a very reasonable price too. He'll be able to produce right away and in a spot where he'll be comfortable.

Another interesting news story revolves around Jaromir Jagr. He recently hinted on his Facebook page that this season will be his last, and because of that he declared that he "can't be too risky."I'm not exactly sure what that means, but that can't sound very good to Devils fans, who are hoping that their team can overcome major offseason losses from a mediocre squad and return to the playoffs.

Jaromir Jagr Isn't The Answer In New Jersey

There's little doubt in the minds of hockey fans that Jaromir Jagr has had a brilliant career. He currently ranks eighth on the all-time scoring list, with 1,688 points. He is one of only twelve players to top the 1,000 assist mark, and he is tenth in goals with 681. The man is no doubt a first-ballot Hall of Famer. After a rather cryptic and confusing video was posted on Jagr's Facebook page, one in which he said that his future in the NHL was "black", he has decided to continue his career after signing a 1-year, $2 million contract with the New Jersey Devils.

As for the contract itself, the deal is really worth $4 million, but Jagr only gets that figure if he plays in 45 games next season. It's a number he should reach easily, barring a catastrophic injury. Since performance bonuses count against the cap (teams are allowed to go over the cap by 7.5%, or $4,822,500 for next season, in performance bonuses), it allows the Devils some leeway on their bottom line should Jagr get hurt and miss substantial time.

That much is fine with what the Devils did. They got a serviceable player for a good price in a free agency year where teams, including the Devils themselves, are wildly overspending for marginal players. I still don't like the signing, and I don't think it does the Devils any favors this season. Here are my reasons:

1. Jagr doesn't fill their biggest positional need. Jagr plays the right side, which is a position that the Devils aren't exactly stacked at, but they did sign Michael Ryder to be a goal-scoring RW. Look over to the other wing. Want to know who their best left wing is right now? Ryane Clowe. Yes, that Ryane Clowe, who posted three goals and three concussions in time split between the Sharks and Rangers last season. Now, Jagr could play alongside Clowe and Travis Zajac and have a nice season... or he could have those same linemates and not produce. He could also be slotted in the second line with fellow countryman Patrik Elias and what at this point looks like a revolving door on the left side (could be Rostislav Olesz; I think they'd be better served with giving Stefan Matteau a shot). Again, feast or famine. It simply isn't a good fit for either party from this aspect.
2. He isn't the same player anymore. Let's be real, folks - this isn't 1996. Jagr's nearing the end of his career, and the Devils should have spent that money on younger free agents, because this is a team in rebuilding mode. Jagr's no longer a 100-point guy. Hell, he isn't even a point per game guy. I think he can give the Devils about 50 points, which isn't bad, but it's nothing to call home about. Furthermore, it certainly doesn't replace Ilya Kovalchuk's production, and I'm not sure it even replaces David Clarkson. Now, if Jagr and Clowe were one player with their combined talents, that would be sufficient to replace Clarkson. As it stands, they're getting a player who needs to have short shifts, can't play much defense, and hogs the puck at times. The Jagr of old was a complete player.
3. This isn't exactly a team on the cusp of a Cup. At this point in his career, Jagr is best utilized playing for a team that he can put over the top. Had the Devils made a deal for Jagr at the 2012 trade deadline, we might be talking about how they were the champions that year and not the Kings. Right now, after Zach Parise, Kovalchuk, and Clarkson all bolted in about a year's time? I don't think it makes sense. Keep in mind that they lost the latter two guys from a team that finished last in the Atlantic. At the time of this post, I'm not sure I consider the Devils to be better than any team in the newly-formed Metropolitan Division. What does this mean for Jagr? It means that he's likely going to be dealt at the deadline, once again being a rent-a-player for a contender, just as he was for Boston last season. 

Now, you could argue that there are positives in this. It could be said that Jagr might help mentor the young talent and make them better. It's possible, but the Devils already have a core of older guys (plus Zajac) to do that. Of course, Jagr does provide scoring on a team that sorely lacks it. I feel that they still sorely lack it, as Ryder might be their only bonafide sniper, but it can't hurt them offensively. Lastly, neither side has much to lose; the Devils only have to pay half the contract if Jagr gets hurt, can always trade him, and Jagr would be welcomed on almost any team regardless of his level of play because he's so experienced. 

What all this adds up to is that the Devils are getting a hockey legend who is now a shell of his former self, which is still a slightly above average top six forward. He'll help them, but not enough to make a substantial jump in the standings (read: playoffs) and he's already my top pick to get dealt at next season's trade deadline. I sure hope Lou Lamoriello thinks it was worth it after next season.

How Ilya Kovalchuk Screwed New Jersey

If you're like me, you were shocked to learn of Ilya Kovalchuk's sudden retirement from the NHL, at age 30. If you haven't heard about it yet... well, sorry for the lack of a spoiler alert, but yes, it's true. Kovalchuk left 12 years and $77 million out of his original 15-year, $102 million contract on the table because he simply wants to return home to Russia and play in the KHL. He turned down being "the guy" in Newark, just so he can go home and half ass his way to being one of, if not the best player that the KHL has ever seen. Don't get me wrong, the KHL has some talent, but let's be real, it's not on the NHL's level. There are many (the bulk being Devils fans, I would assume) who are sad to see him go. By most accounts, he's an exciting player to watch, always a threat to score, and has good offensive vision, but he's quite the liability in his own end. And I'll grant all of that. What's my reaction to Kovalchuk leaving for Mother Russia?

Good riddance.

Had this come about before free agency started, or right after the end of the season, I'd have understood. However, let's look at what New Jersey has done so far this offseason:

• They inexplicably signed Marek Zidlicky to a 1-year deal worth $3 million. I heard plenty of Devils fans calling for Zidlicky's head by the end of this past season. He can still skate well and he moves the puck, but the Devils have a loaded defense corps in their farm system. In what's looking like a rebuilding year, it's time to give the kids a crack at the big show.
• In what was undoubtedly their best move so far, the Devils picked up Michael Ryder for 2 years and $7 million total. Ryder only appeared in 27 games for Montreal this past season, but he was on pace for 30 goals and 63 points over an 82-game season. He'll be called upon to replace the possibly fluky season that David Clarkson had two seasons ago, when he scored 30 goals in 80 games (note: he did score 15 in 48 games this past season, but I'm not banking on another 30 from him... not on Toronto), and I think Ryder can do the job adequately. He's still a productive player.
• They gave the following gem of a contract to Ryane Clowe: 5 years, $24.25 million. We're talking about a guy who had as many concussions (three) as he did goals this past season, and all three of his goals came after the trade deadline, when the Sharks dealt him to the Rangers. What boggles my mind is that they let Clarkson walk, I'm guessing because they didn't think he was worth the money that Toronto gave him (7 years at $5.25 million per), yet they hand Clowe a fat contract after the guy completely wasted his contract year.
• They traded the #9 overall pick in the recent draft (which became Bo Horvat, a center out of the OHL) to Vancouver in exchange for Corey Schneider. Good on them to get their "goaltender of the future" situation sorted out, even though it cost them a top pick in one of the deepest drafts we've seen in a long time. There's also the issue of them not having a first round pick in next year's draft (more on that in a bit), but still, I believe it was a move they had to make. 
• Not finished yet, the Devils inked the remarkably unspectacular Rostislav Olesz to a 1-year, $1 million contract. Olesz had his most productive campaign for Florida in the 2009-10 season, posting 29 points in 78 games. He hasn't played many meaningful minutes since then and has played in the AHL for the better part of the last two seasons. However, he should get a crack at making the team, since it's a one-way contract.

Given all of these occurrences, Kovalchuk's retirement coming about now, as opposed to a month ago, has to be considered a dagger to the Devils' hopes of contention next season and beyond. While it does free up $6.55 million in cap room per season, we're talking about the team that ranked 21st in attendance a season ago. The Devils have been in dire straits financially for a few years now, and with a volatile ownership situation to boot. They did turn a profit this year, but owner Jeff Vanderbeek missed a $3 million interest payment in April and the company that operates the Prudential Center, Devils Arena, owes $170 million to lenders. For the record, I can't see them moving out of New Jersey, but I digress. Kovalchuk puts asses in seats - that much is obvious. Without him, and Marty Brodeur likely done after next season, the cupboard's pretty bare in Newark. We're looking at a nucleus of Elias, Schneider, Zajac, Henrique (if he re-signs), Zubrus, Ryder, and Clowe, with more aging defensemen than I'd like to count. You could certainly do worse than that in terms of a roster, but that bunch doesn't exactly scream "playoffs".  Plus, and this is possibly the worst of all, the Devils don't have a first round pick in next year's draft. Why? Because they circumvented the salary cap when they tried to sign Kovalchuk the first time, and they deferred the league's penalty of docking a first rounder in any one draft from 2011-2014 until now. Not only that, but on paper, this roster might produce a pick in the top five. In the short-term, they're boned unless new investors come along or the team is sold outright.

However, if they can weather the storm, I believe that the Devils will be better off in the long run. They won't have to worry about Kovalchuk playing zero defense on a nightly basis, nor do they have to worry about him pulling any more dick moves like this. The extra cap space, theoretically, means that they can go out and get some free agent talent in the future, or make a trade for a big contract without worrying about having to dump salary the other way. Given the way GM Lou Lamoriello has spent money so far, though, I wouldn't count on much in the realm of intelligence on that front. They'll be able to build around Adam Henrique and their young defense, along with Schneider, and probably get back to playing the type of hockey that we're all used to seeing: gritty, defensive, and bend-but-don't-break. Even in the ludicrously-stacked Patrick Division (I'm calling the divisions by their old names until the NHL says otherwise), the Devils can still be competitive. It's going to be a few years before we can think about calling them contenders again, but the NHL has a flow to it, and the Devils will be back someday.

Let's hope that they learned a lesson from this, and that's to always be wary of signing and/or drafting Russian players. Between Radulov, the Kostitsyns, and now Kovalchuk, the threat of defection to the KHL is as prevalent as ever.