October Report Cards, Part 2

Note: Records are prior to games on November 1st.

Nashville Predators (6-5-2)
Grade: C
Would it really be Nashville Predators hockey if we weren't talking about a sputtering offense and a pretty good defense? Seems like every year the Predators insist on trying to win every game 2-1 and all anyone ever talks about is how tough they are to play against. They need to work on maintaining leads in the next few games, as they blew a 3-0 first period lead in Phoenix the other night, losing 5-4 in a shootout.

New Jersey Devils (3-5-4)
Grade: D
Hard to make an argument for a group that's lost nine of 12 games so far and is towards the bottom of the NHL in scoring while also in the bottom half in defense. Given the dearth of offensive talent on this team, the power play has been pretty good, coupled with an average penalty kill. The signing of Ryane Clowe has not worked out for this team, as I expected.

New York Islanders (4-5-3)
Grade: C-
I still believe that the Islanders are a better team than their record indicates and what they've shown so far this season. They're putting the puck in the net and have been good on special teams so far, but last night's 57-shot effort in Ottawa aside they're not winning that battle and they haven't been able to keep the puck out of their net.

New York Rangers (5-7-0)
Grade: C-
They get a bit of a pass due to all the injuries they've sustained thus far, but they still haven't been playing good hockey. The offense hasn't hit its stride yet, though that's to be expected when it has yet to be at full strength. The special teams have been pretty good so far but the Rangers are the NHL's worst team at 5 on 5 this season.

Ottawa Senators (4-6-2)
Grade: D+
Yikes, there are a number of defensive issues with this team. They were already 28th in the NHL in shot differential before last night's -26 against the Islanders. Goal scoring hasn't been a problem for the Senators and they've also been pretty good 5 on 5 and on the penalty kill, so I expect them to turn it around soon. They just have to avoid the defensive breakdowns and sustain the forecheck better.

Philadelphia Flyers (3-8-0)
Grade: F-
Yes, the Flyers get an F-, the worst possible grade on this scale. Their grade is even worse than the Sabres, Panthers, and Oilers because Philadelphia was expected to have a bounce back year. They've been beaten soundly all over the ice and some of their best players haven't shown up yet this season. Not that it factors into their grade, but last night's 7-0 loss at home to Washington is a microcosm of the laughable failure this team has suffered.

Phoenix Coyotes (9-3-2)
Grade: B+
Phoenix is looking like a serious contender out west, and the shocking thing to me is that they're tied for third in the NHL in scoring. The defense hasn't been as sharp as we're used to seeing under head coach Dave Tippett, but aside from that they are firing on all cylinders. They have the most points by defensemen in the NHL, and the trio of Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Derek Morris, and Keith Yandle has combined for eight goals and 23 assists through the team's first 14 games.

Pittsburgh Penguins (9-4-0)
Grade: A-
Props to the Penguins for being the class of a bad division so far, because even with Evgeni Malkin's recent scoring drought they're still winning games. Jussi Jokinen has been on fire with six goals in October. Marc-Andre Fleury has been good, and it's really helped this team get settled in through the first month. The penalty kill has been a bit weak so far, but there's plenty of season left for that to improve.

San Jose Sharks (10-1-2)
Grade: A+
The Sharks are the NHL's best team through October, though fans in Colorado and St. Louis could easily make cases for their teams. Rookie Tomas Hertl has cooled off after his ridiculous start to the season, but now Joe Pavelski has the hot stick and it goes to show that their depth is their biggest weapon. Antti Niemi has been a brick wall in net, but I wonder if he's getting overused early on.

St. Louis Blues (7-1-2)
Grade: A
A light schedule in October has seen the Blues play just ten games (not including last night's win over Florida), but that hasn't stopped them from making quite an impression in the early going. If you haven't seen this team play yet, you need to fix that problem. Over the years I've never thought of the Blues as a particularly fun team to watch, but this season they are making me tune in regularly with their inspired play at both ends of the ice.

Tampa Bay Lightning (8-4-0)
Grade: B+
They've been impressive so far, but this is once again a stereotypical Lightning start to a season. They're always the team that comes out of the gate hot, but then as time goes on their defensive issues catch up to them and they fall back into the pack. All of their metrics look good except for the shot differential, where they've been outshot by 1.4 per game through the end of October. They need to get that number positive.

Toronto Maple Leafs (10-4-0)
Grade: A-
I had a feeling that the Leafs would be a solid team this season, but I didn't expect a 10-4 run through the first month of the season. There's a huge red flag with this team, though, and it's possession. The Leafs have been terrible in the faceoff circle and are 29th in the league in shot differential. However, they have won every game in which they outshot their opponent, and they are 4-2 in games that they have trailed after either the first or second period.

Vancouver Canucks (9-5-1)
Grade: B
This grade would be higher if John Tortorella hadn't already made their power play as horrible as he did the Rangers' during his tenure in New York. They're getting scoring from many sources, but not all at once and it has left them in the middle of the NHL in scoring. The penalty kill has been very stingy so far and Roberto Luongo is off to a nice start. They're headed in the right direction.

Washington Capitals (5-7-0)
Grade: C-
They don't deserve a higher grade than this for their play in October, but they get an A++ for their 7-0 win in Philadelphia last night (and it was without Ovechkin too). The problem for the Caps is even strength play; they're a minus in that department and it's led to their sub-.500 record even though their power play and penalty kill rank third and second, respectively.

Winnipeg Jets (5-7-2)
Grade: D
I think it's time to end things with Ondrej Pavelec. He's a bad goalie, and Al Montoya has played wonderfully in his limited playing time so far. Stands to reason that they should give Montoya more starts, right? The offense has not produced so far, the new acquisitions have not fit into the lineup well and the power play has been punchless. Their 44.1% on faceoffs is the second-worst in the league, only ahead of Calgary.

Parting Shots - Week 2

We've got some things to discuss this week, so let's get right to it.

- What the hell is wrong with the Rangers? A 1-4-0 start to the season has seen them allow the most goals per game (5, and yes, you're reading that right) in the NHL while only scoring nine total. There have been injuries, namely Carl Hagelin missing all action thus far and Rick Nash's recent concussion, but this is still a mess. The new coach and system aren't getting through to the team just yet, as there are players constantly out of position and failing to execute. GM Glen Sather tried to shake things up today by placing Arron Asham and Martin Biron on waivers, but I'm not sure that's the answer and either way, those aren't the guys who should be buried in the minors. Brian Boyle and Taylor Pyatt are much more deserving of that fate. With four games still to go on the Rangers' nine-game road trip, they'll do well to finish strong and open up the home slate on a win streak.

- Suspensions abound this week. Brad Stuart got three games for concussing Nash, Alex Edler got three games for a high hit on Tomas Hertl (the crown jewel of my fantasy team), and Patrick Kaleta picked up two games (and potentially more) for his high hit on Jack Johnson. In my estimation, the punishments fit the crimes, but at some point we need to find a better way to legislate these headshots out of the game. If an official feels that the head was targeted in a hit, I think there should be no less than a ten-minute misconduct, in addition to whatever Shanahan and the league office want to do about it.

- Another week in the books, and we're down to four teams that are either undefeated or have no regulation losses, all of them in the Western Conference. Colorado and San Jose (each 5-0-0) lead the way in their respective divisions, with St. Louis (4-0-0) and Calgary (3-0-2) not far behind. I don't think anyone's surprised that the Sharks and Blues are on hot streaks to start the year, but the Avs and Flames are a different story. I picked them to finish in last place in their divisions, yet here they are two weeks in and playing great hockey. If you can believe it, Colorado has been winning with defense. They have yet to allow multiple goals in a game and have conceded just four so far this season. Calgary, a team I thought would have trouble scoring, has been playing very well offensively. They've tallied at least three goals in each of their five outings this season, and have scored 18 total.

- Can we all agree now that the Flyers aren't a good team and injuries were not the sole reason for their playoff miss last year? They're 1-5-0 through six games and have scored eight goals. They have all their top players in the lineup, and they're healthy, yet the production still isn't there. The team defense has been below average as well. An average of 31.3 shots against per game (20th in the NHL) is not going to get it done when the offense isn't scoring. Their 7.4% power play (28th) isn't helping matters, either. They've already fired their head coach, but they should've fired the GM. Maybe now that wheel will start turning in the front office.

- Obligatory mention that the Sharks are outshooting their opponents by nearly 20 shots per game. I'll let that sink in for you readers and leave it there.

- And now for the fantasy league update. The hometown teams are both 2-0, with my team still leading the league in scoring and George in 2nd. Four other teams are unbeaten, with no guarantees that the number will shrink as none of the 2-0 teams face each other this week. Should be an interesting week of hockey, looking forward to enjoying it!

30 Teams, 30 Days - New York Rangers

After the great success of the 2011-12 season, it's hard not to feel like last year was a bit of a disappointment. The Rangers struggled through their same old offensive and power play problems, got solid play from a defense that was without Marc Staal for a while, received the usual greatness from Henrik Lundqvist, and made the playoffs. After a thrilling seven-game series win in the first round against Washington, the Rangers looked outmatched and outcoached in the second round, losing in five to Boston. In the offseason, the Rangers weren't too busy. They decided not to buy out Brad Richards even though it probably would have been the smarter choice. They signed Benoit Pouliot and Dominic Moore, and made trades for Justin Falk and Danny Kristo. There's only one move left to make, and that's to get RFA Derek Stepan signed. Having a new coach in Alain Vigneault should bring a more offensive philosophy to this team and I'm excited to see what they can do this season.

Projected Forward Lines:

Carl Hagelin - Derek Stepan - Rick Nash
Chris Kreider - Derrick Brassard - Ryan Callahan
Mats Zuccarello - Brad Richards - Brian Boyle
Benoit Pouliot - Dominic Moore - Derek Dorsett
Taylor Pyatt - Arron Asham

Something that the Rangers lacked after trading for Rick Nash last offseason were energy players on the lower lines. The subsequent trade that sent Marian Gaborik to Columbus remedied that a bit, as Derek Dorsett has helped fill that role thus far. I'm still not sure they fully replaced what they lost, but they did get a faceoff specialist in Moore and Pouliot, who can do a little bit of everything. They still might need to make a trade to get Stepan signed, but for now Brassard looks like he can hold the fort down just fine. He was brilliant after coming over with Dorsett in the trade for Gaborik, and has looked strong so far in the preseason. Left wing is a bit weak overall, with only Kreider providing size and step up efforts needed from Hagelin and Zuccarello this year. Nash and Callahan will be called upon to score goals, and I think they'll do just fine there.

Projected Defensive Pairings:

Ryan McDonagh - Dan Girardi
Marc Staal - Anton Stralman
John Moore - Michael Del Zotto
Justin Falk

Assuming Staal is 100% and can play big minutes, this defensive unit should be fine. Though Stralman and Del Zotto are puck movers, the Rangers still lack a true power play general on the backend. Del Zotto was an adventure last year in his own end, and he needs to have a bounce back season in order to keep his roster spot. With a new coaching philosophy in place, I wonder if we're going to see the Rangers' defensemen sacrificing their bodies to block shots as often as they did under John Tortorella. Of course, when you have a guy like Lundqvist in net, I think the better option is to just let him do his job. John Moore should see more ice time this season and looks to improve on his performance from last year, which was impressive given his youth and inexperience.

Goaltending:

Henrik Lundqvist
Martin Biron

The NHL's best goaltender returns in a contract year with abundant uncertainty regarding his future in New York. I think that when all is said and done, a contract gets signed and he stays with the Rangers. As for what to expect this season, the more offensive approach should mean that the puck isn't in the Rangers' defensive zone as much, which can only mean good things for Lundqvist and backup Biron. Playing in the offensive zone means you can't get scored on. Hopefully Lundqvist won't have to play 70 games this season, as every year he's touched 70 he's either burned out in the playoffs or the Rangers failed to get there. I think that 65 would be the optimal number here, with Biron seeing the rest of the starts.

Special Teams:

I know that the Rangers don't possess the worst power play in the league, but man were they infuriating to watch under John Tortorella. Too much passing and cycling, not enough motion, not enough shooting, and not nearly enough scoring. The Rangers were 23rd in the NHL at 15.7% efficiency. That number should and must climb under Vigneault. Teams aren't afraid of taking penalties against the Rangers because they know they won't pay for it. The Rangers were also unusually average on the penalty kill, placing 15th at 81.1%. Having guys like Moore and Pouliot in the fold should help raise that number. Discipline was not an issue for the Rangers last year, as they were shorthanded the 8th-fewest times and were +5 on the differential.

X-Factor:

How will Vigneault's system work with this team? He doesn't have players like the Sedins in New York, but he does have a better version of Ryan Kesler in Nash. If there's suddenly a major offensive boost with the same level of play defensively, the Rangers might put themselves in the Stanley Cup discussion. Of course, they're going to need big seasons from Brassard, Nash, Callahan, basically the entire top six, but I believe they can thrive under Vigneault. The power play has to be better as well. They can't just whip the puck around on a cycle for two minutes and expect to succeed that way. It just won't work. As the old adage goes, good things happen when you get pucks to the net. The Rangers would do well to follow that advice.

The Rangers will make the playoffs if...

... the necessary improvements are made, the defense continues to be sturdy, and the best players play like the best players. The Rangers are a pretty safe bet to reach the postseason this year, not because they're so much better than last year but because the rest of their division didn't improve enough to surpass them. They have the best goalie in the league, a very solid defense, and enough skill players up front to make noise. This team is built from the net out, which hasn't necessarily been the Stanley Cup formula of recent years but with a guy like The King in net, you could be forgiven for structuring the team that way.

The Rangers will miss the playoffs if...

... Lundqvist doesn't get enough rest, the offense continues to struggle, and the bottom pairing regresses. I won't sit here and say that I think the Rangers will come out of the gate firing on all cylinders. They have a new coach, a new system to learn, and a nine-game road trip to start the year. They aren't going to be playing their best hockey early on. However, by season's end, I believe they'll be a force in the Metropolitan Division. They have the tools to make a deep playoff run, the only thing left to do now is put it all together.