After the great success of the 2011-12 season, it's hard not to feel like last year was a bit of a disappointment. The Rangers struggled through their same old offensive and power play problems, got solid play from a defense that was without Marc Staal for a while, received the usual greatness from Henrik Lundqvist, and made the playoffs. After a thrilling seven-game series win in the first round against Washington, the Rangers looked outmatched and outcoached in the second round, losing in five to Boston. In the offseason, the Rangers weren't too busy. They decided not to buy out Brad Richards even though it probably would have been the smarter choice. They signed Benoit Pouliot and Dominic Moore, and made trades for Justin Falk and Danny Kristo. There's only one move left to make, and that's to get RFA Derek Stepan signed. Having a new coach in Alain Vigneault should bring a more offensive philosophy to this team and I'm excited to see what they can do this season.
Projected Forward Lines:
Carl Hagelin - Derek Stepan - Rick Nash
Chris Kreider - Derrick Brassard - Ryan Callahan
Mats Zuccarello - Brad Richards - Brian Boyle
Benoit Pouliot - Dominic Moore - Derek Dorsett
Taylor Pyatt - Arron Asham
Something that the Rangers lacked after trading for Rick Nash last offseason were energy players on the lower lines. The subsequent trade that sent Marian Gaborik to Columbus remedied that a bit, as Derek Dorsett has helped fill that role thus far. I'm still not sure they fully replaced what they lost, but they did get a faceoff specialist in Moore and Pouliot, who can do a little bit of everything. They still might need to make a trade to get Stepan signed, but for now Brassard looks like he can hold the fort down just fine. He was brilliant after coming over with Dorsett in the trade for Gaborik, and has looked strong so far in the preseason. Left wing is a bit weak overall, with only Kreider providing size and step up efforts needed from Hagelin and Zuccarello this year. Nash and Callahan will be called upon to score goals, and I think they'll do just fine there.
Projected Defensive Pairings:
Ryan McDonagh - Dan Girardi
Marc Staal - Anton Stralman
John Moore - Michael Del Zotto
Justin Falk
Assuming Staal is 100% and can play big minutes, this defensive unit should be fine. Though Stralman and Del Zotto are puck movers, the Rangers still lack a true power play general on the backend. Del Zotto was an adventure last year in his own end, and he needs to have a bounce back season in order to keep his roster spot. With a new coaching philosophy in place, I wonder if we're going to see the Rangers' defensemen sacrificing their bodies to block shots as often as they did under John Tortorella. Of course, when you have a guy like Lundqvist in net, I think the better option is to just let him do his job. John Moore should see more ice time this season and looks to improve on his performance from last year, which was impressive given his youth and inexperience.
Goaltending:
Henrik Lundqvist
Martin Biron
The NHL's best goaltender returns in a contract year with abundant uncertainty regarding his future in New York. I think that when all is said and done, a contract gets signed and he stays with the Rangers. As for what to expect this season, the more offensive approach should mean that the puck isn't in the Rangers' defensive zone as much, which can only mean good things for Lundqvist and backup Biron. Playing in the offensive zone means you can't get scored on. Hopefully Lundqvist won't have to play 70 games this season, as every year he's touched 70 he's either burned out in the playoffs or the Rangers failed to get there. I think that 65 would be the optimal number here, with Biron seeing the rest of the starts.
Special Teams:
I know that the Rangers don't possess the worst power play in the league, but man were they infuriating to watch under John Tortorella. Too much passing and cycling, not enough motion, not enough shooting, and not nearly enough scoring. The Rangers were 23rd in the NHL at 15.7% efficiency. That number should and must climb under Vigneault. Teams aren't afraid of taking penalties against the Rangers because they know they won't pay for it. The Rangers were also unusually average on the penalty kill, placing 15th at 81.1%. Having guys like Moore and Pouliot in the fold should help raise that number. Discipline was not an issue for the Rangers last year, as they were shorthanded the 8th-fewest times and were +5 on the differential.
X-Factor:
How will Vigneault's system work with this team? He doesn't have players like the Sedins in New York, but he does have a better version of Ryan Kesler in Nash. If there's suddenly a major offensive boost with the same level of play defensively, the Rangers might put themselves in the Stanley Cup discussion. Of course, they're going to need big seasons from Brassard, Nash, Callahan, basically the entire top six, but I believe they can thrive under Vigneault. The power play has to be better as well. They can't just whip the puck around on a cycle for two minutes and expect to succeed that way. It just won't work. As the old adage goes, good things happen when you get pucks to the net. The Rangers would do well to follow that advice.
The Rangers will make the playoffs if...
... the necessary improvements are made, the defense continues to be sturdy, and the best players play like the best players. The Rangers are a pretty safe bet to reach the postseason this year, not because they're so much better than last year but because the rest of their division didn't improve enough to surpass them. They have the best goalie in the league, a very solid defense, and enough skill players up front to make noise. This team is built from the net out, which hasn't necessarily been the Stanley Cup formula of recent years but with a guy like The King in net, you could be forgiven for structuring the team that way.
The Rangers will miss the playoffs if...
... Lundqvist doesn't get enough rest, the offense continues to struggle, and the bottom pairing regresses. I won't sit here and say that I think the Rangers will come out of the gate firing on all cylinders. They have a new coach, a new system to learn, and a nine-game road trip to start the year. They aren't going to be playing their best hockey early on. However, by season's end, I believe they'll be a force in the Metropolitan Division. They have the tools to make a deep playoff run, the only thing left to do now is put it all together.
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