One word can be used to classify this offseason for the Ottawa Senators: shocking. Daniel Alfredsson, the captain who had been there forever and was a key cog in many memorable seasons in Canada's capital, walked in free agency and signed with Detroit. The front office didn't wait long to replace him, however, completing a blockbuster trade that sent Jakob Silfverberg and Stefan Noesen to Anaheim for perennial 30-goal scorer Bobby Ryan. They then made a couple of smaller additions, signing forward Clarke McArthur and defenseman Joe Corvo, who is now on his second stint with the team. Some would say that the Senators overachieved last year, having been without Jason Spezza and Erik Karlsson for extended periods with injuries. I say that this is a very deep squad with a brilliant head coach in Paul McLean, who can get results no matter who is on the ice.
Projected Forward Lines:
Milan Michalek - Jason Spezza - Bobby Ryan
Cory Conacher - Kyle Turris - Clarke McArthur
Colin Greening - Mika Zibanejad - Zack Smith
Erik Condra - Jean-Gabriel Pageau - Chris Neil
Jim O'Brien - Matt Kassian
The offense was not s strength for the Senators last year, as they averaged only 2.33 goals per game (27th in the NHL). However, a lot of that drop in production can be blamed on the injuries to Spezza and Karlsson. They're the two biggest facilitators for this team and having them both back healthy this year should pay huge dividends. The right side looks revamped with Ryan and McArthur taking over the top two spots with the departures of Alfredsson and Silfverberg. The bottom six looks strong as well and should give Ottawa the scoring depth it needs to succeed, all while providing the physical aspects as well. If you don't believe me, look up their line brawl against Montreal from last year's playoffs. Definitely one of the best hockey fights I've ever seen, and the Sens went 5 for 5 on the fights. If depth down the middle is what wins in today's NHL, then I like Ottawa's chances with Turris, Zibanejad, and Pageau in tow.
Projected Defensive Pairings:
Marc Methot - Erik Karlsson
Jared Cowen - Patrick Wiercioch
Chris Phillips - Joe Corvo
Eric Gryba
The defense was almost as stingy as it gets last year, their 2.08 goals against per game ranking second only to Chicago (2.02) and this year, at full strength, they look to continue their stellar play. Cowen and Wiercioch are growing into solid players and a real formidable second pairing. Cowen's size and physicality match perfectly with Wiercioch's booming shot and puck moving ability. Phillips is the longest-tenured member of the defense, having played his entire career in Ottawa. He'll always have a spot on this team. Any questions regarding Karlsson's health were answered in the playoffs, where he posted eight points in ten games. Ottawa rarely gets stuck in its own end, which is more than can be said about most teams in the NHL.
Goaltending:
Craig Anderson
Robin Lehner
Anderson surely would have won the Vezina Trophy last year if he didn't get hurt. He was 12-9-2 in 24 games, with a 1.69 GAA and a .941 save percentage, numbers that are unheard of even in the contemporary NHL, where offense is way down from the 1980's and early 1990's. I don't think that anyone in their right mind would expect him to duplicate those numbers from last year, but expectations are now through the roof for a guy who hasn't been able to string together consecutive solid seasons. With this type of depth and potential offensive production in front of him, I don't see why he can't have another strong season. He's a very different player from the guy that broke into the NHL with Chicago and took a lot of lumps early in his career.
Special Teams:
Ottawa finished 20th on the power play last year, posting a 15.9% success rate. Having to play without Karlsson contributed heavily to that, because he is their best offensive player at times. The benefit that the Senators have over other teams is their forward depth, as it allows them to mix and match players on the power play units to see what sticks. Ottawa was -10 on the special teams differential last year, but that didn't prove to be a problem as they were the #1 penalty kill in the NHL at 88%. They were able to stifle opponents while shorthanded, even when they were without Anderson in net. With most of the team coming back from last year's success, this unit should again be an area of strength.
X-Factor:
Health is the biggest opponent of this team. They can't have Spezza, Anderson, and Karlsson getting hurt again, and really can't afford injuries to guys like Michalek, Ryan, or Methot, either. I realize that this goes against what I said before about the Sens' depth, but nobody wants to lose their best players for any games, let alone chunks at a time. If they can avoid the injury bug, they have a chance to make a real deep playoff run this year.
The Senators will make the playoffs if...
... they stay healthy, the offense improves, and the defense plays similarly to last season. Ottawa is a young team with a lot of talent on both ends of the ice, and they'll be scary if they put it all together. They're big, fast, deep, and balanced. The offensive production will pick up as long as key guys don't get hurt, and it needs to because you can't expect your defense to be as good as it was last season on a yearly basis. That would be too much pressure on the backend, and while I believe they're up to the task it's always nice to give them a breather with a 4+ goal game every now and then.
The Senators will miss the playoffs if...
... basically, the wheels fall off. Of the three Canadian teams in the Atlantic Division who will be fighting for playoff berths, Ottawa is the best of them and is therefore the best bet to at least land the third automatic bid. Injuries and regression in all areas of the game are the only things that could derail this team's playoff hopes, as they played great hockey last year even without key players. The front office's move to get Ryan was brilliant for a team that realizes that it can win now with this roster. They have a fairly big window to win, too; only five players who should make the roster are 30 or more years old, so there are years of opportunity awaiting this team.
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