The Carolina Hurricanes were sitting pretty on top of the now-defunct Southeast Division on March 3rd. They entered the second half of their home and home with the Florida Panthers at 11-8-1, leading their weak division on the back of a hot offense. However, in that game against Florida, Cam Ward suffered a season-ending injury. The Canes never recovered after winning that game, going 7-17-3 the rest of the way and finishing well out of the playoffs. There were other injuries as well, Jeff Skinner went down for a while as did most of their defensemen. Their awful end to the season has made many people forget about the way they started, which means expectations will be low on Tobacco Road; just the way they like them. Carolina got bigger and stronger on defense this offseason, signing Mike Komisarek and trading for Andrej Sekera. They also signed Aaron Palushaj and Nathan Gerbe to bolster their forward unit. This year, playing in a tougher division, Carolina is out to prove they can win with their current roster.
Projected Forward Lines:
Jiri Tlusty - Eric Staal - Alexander Semin
Jeff Skinner - Jordan Staal - Patrick Dwyer
Tuomo Ruutu - Elias Lindholm - Nathan Gerbe
Zac Dalpe - Riley Nash - Drayson Bowman
Kevin Westgarth - Aaron Palushaj
Without a doubt, this team can score goals and they do so in bunches. The top six can go toe to toe with most teams in the NHL and the bottom half features some intriguing players. Rookie Elias Lindholm will be given every opportunity to make the team and play big minutes. He is ready for the NHL and should have a productive maiden voyage through the 82-game slate. The Staal brothers will once again lead the attack and with players who can put the puck in the net like Tlusty, Skinner, and Semin, the duo figure to have a large assist total by season's end. The fourth line is more of an energy line that is still developing, and they can always play Westgarth for his solid enforcer skills and gain an added edge. It could also help to discourage opposing teams from taking runs at the star players, and perhaps they will be healthier for it. The one question I have about this group centers around whether or not they can play well enough defensively to help Ward. It will be something to keep an eye on early in the season.
Projected Defensive Pairings:
Tim Gleason - Justin Faulk
Joni Pitkanen - Andrej Sekera
Mike Komisarek - Jay Harrison
Brett Bellemore
After shedding their purely offensive defensemen when they traded Jamie McBain and let Joe Corvo and Marc-Andre Bergeron walk in free agency, the Canes went with more defensively responsible players in Sekera and Komisarek. Gleason is still the leader on the backend, and Faulk will see more ice time now that he's on the top pairing. Unlike the forward group, the defense corps is not very deep. The rash of injuries that destroyed their defense last season cannot happen again if they want to contend for a playoff spot. Carolina was 29th in goals against last season, and while losing multiple top defensemen and Ward had a hand in that, they still have to play better in 2013-14.
Goaltending:
Cam Ward
Anton Khudobin
Carolina ended its revolving door situation at the #2 goaltender spot when they signed Anton Khudobin to back up Ward. Khudobin is 14-5-1 in 21 games in the NHL, with a 2.03 GAA and a .933 save percentage for his career. He will no longer have the benefit of playing with Boston's top-notch defense in front of him, so this season presents a new challenge and opportunity for him. If he excels in Carolina, he could parlay that into a starting job elsewhere once the season ends, thanks to his one-year contract. Cam Ward will make his return to the starting job after last season ended with an injury. He was a rookie back in 2006 when he took over for Martin Gerber in the playoffs and led them to the Stanley Cup and hopes to recapture that success. He and Eric Staal are the only players on the roster who were on that championship team, so they more than anyone know how to win in Raleigh.
Special Teams:
With so many talented offensive players, it seems a bit off that Carolina finished 27th on the power play last season (14.7%). That number should rise to at least the league average (18.1%), if not higher, barring injuries. Having better all-around defensemen will also help prevent them from allowing shorthanded goals. Carolina allowed four last season, which was tied for 7th-most. It's certain that Faulk and Pitkanen will quarterback the two units, but given the rest of their defensemen the Canes might consider going with four forwards on one or both units to increase scoring. The penalty kill was equally bad last year, finishing 28th in the league with a lowly 77.6% kill rate. Carolina won the penalty battle with opponents a season ago, finishing +4 in total special teams chances. This is a reasonably disciplined team overall, so expect the Canes to be smart about their style of play and not take dumb penalties in key situations.
X-Factor:
The key to this team's success is without a doubt the defense. They were both bad and prone to injury last season. The overall makeup looks different this year, with Sekera and Komisarek providing responsibility in their own zone. A season ago the Canes had too many defensemen who were focused on offense and it showed. Health is potentially a bigger concern than talent level here; for all their shortcomings last season, it was more troubling that so many of them missed action. Gleason missed six games last year, Faulk missed ten, and Pitkanen missed 26. The silver lining with the injuries is that a number of fresh faces saw time in the NHL, but none of them other than Bellemore figures to be a factor this season.
The Hurricanes will make the playoffs if...
... the defense plays much better and stays healthy, Cam Ward is lights out in net, and the offense produces better than it did last season. Make no mistake, the Canes have an uphill battle in the Metropolitan Division. The Penguins, Rangers, and Islanders all appear strong this season, and with other playoff hopefuls in Columbus, Philadelphia, and Washington, it seems that Carolina has their work cut out for them. However, they proved that when healthy, they can play with the big boys, as evidenced by their fast start last season. Their record might not reflect the quality of play this year, since they see teams like Pittsburgh and the two New York squads more often, but the Hurricanes are not to be written off. They will figure in the playoff discussion in some form this year.
The Hurricanes will miss the playoffs if...
... there are more injuries to the defense, the offense struggles, and there are a number of mistakes in their own end. Pitkanen may not be ready for opening night, as he is still recovering from the broken ankle he suffered near the end of last season. If he can't go, Carolina would have to look to the free agent market or possibly make a trade. Ron Hainsey, Ian White, and Ryan Whitney are still out there waiting to be signed. None of them are truly ideal options for Carolina, but in this particular situation beggars can't be choosers. Losing Pitkanen for an extended period would severely hinder the power play and would leave them with few options in terms of puck moving defensemen, and that spells trouble for their playoff hopes.
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