After the 2011-12 season, when the Phoenix Coyotes did the unthinkable - win not just one playoff series, their first since moving to the desert from Winnipeg, but two, they couldn't sustain that success amid injuries and a sputtering offense that couldn't get it going in the shortened season. They want to recapture the success from that memorable run, where they won the Pacific Division title and then knocked off Chicago in six games before dominating Nashville in a five-game series win. The run ended in the Western Conference Finals at the hands of the hated Los Angeles Kings. Now, with a true top center finally on the roster in Mike Ribeiro, a healthy Mike Smith, and most of the roster back from last year's team, the Coyotes appear poised to return to the playoffs.
Projected Forward Lines:
Mikkel Boedker - Mike Ribeiro - Radim Vrbata
Lauri Korpikoski - Martin Hanzal - Shane Doan
Chris Brown - Antoine Vermette - David Moss
Rob Klinkhammer - Kyle Chipchura - Brandon Yip
Brandon McMillan - Paul Bissonette
This is about as good a top six as Phoenix has had since Keith Tkachuk, Jeremy Roenick, Tony Amonte, and Cliff Ronning were in town. This group will be much better on offense with Ribeiro's skill and passing ability. Expect a jump in goals from the top line and power play unit and Ribeiro's presence is the reason why I believe that Boedker will have a breakout season. The second line has a good mix of size and speed with Korpikoski, Hanzal, and captain Doan. Vermette is good enough to be on the top six, and could shift to wing if the team feels they need his abilities on the second line. The fourth line is a gritty energy line that will see different players frequently, as coach Dave Tippett should rotate McMillan and Bissonette in as needed. All in all, this looks like a good forward group.
Projected Defensive Pairings:
Oliver Ekman-Larsson - Zbynek Michalek
Derek Morris - Keith Yandle
David Schlemko - Michael Stone
Rostislav Klesla
Klesla will be back in the lineup once he returns from the nasty concussion he suffered last week at the hands of Jordan Nolan of the Kings. For now, it'll be Schlemko and Stone on the bottom pair, but there is still a battle for those last to slots between them, David Rundblad, Chris Summers, and Brandon Gormley. More injuries would get them into the lineup, and they're capable players who can fill holes as needed. Ekman-Larsson has developed into a complete player and he is close to being a top-tier defenseman in the NHL. Don't be surprise if he garners some votes for the Norris Trophy this season. Michalek and Morris are the veterans of the group, and former All-Star Yandle is the best puck mover on the team and should produce offensively. This is a balanced backend that will provide quality defense and respectable offense.
Goaltending:
Mike Smith
Thomas Greiss
Based off of what he did two years ago, we all know what Smith is capable of, and his injury-riddled campaign last year saw a dip in his numbers. He needs the team in front of him to keep play in the other end and block more shots, because the Coyotes averaged 30.6 shots against per game last year, 21st in the league. They actually outshot opponents by .3 per game last year, and that number needs to increase so that Smith can stay fresh. Having a significant upgrade at the backup position will be a huge help as well. Greiss has experience at the World Championships and the Olympics for Germany, and has been a serviceable backup for the Sharks the past few years. Expect at least 20 games from Greiss this year to keep Smith from wearing down.
Special Teams:
Phoenix was once again anemic on the power play, finishing 25th in the NHL at 14.8%. They should find much more success with Ribeiro in the lineup, who helped key Washington's league-best unit last year. Having Vrbata healthy will be significant too, as he missed 14 games last year. He's their best pure shooter and should be right at home with Ribeiro feeding him. Yandle and Ekman-Larsson should also play big roles on the power play, the former with his vision and the latter with his booming slap shot. One thing that coach Tippett always preaches to his teams is discipline, and the Coyotes lacked that at times. They were even on the differential last year, but that's still 169 times shorthanded. Their usually solid penalty kill had some cracks last year, finishing 22nd at 79.9%. Bringing in Yip in free agency should help the PK, and they have capable defensemen in Michalek and Morris to fill roles when shorthanded.
X-Factor:
I think the area that would most help this team reach new heights is secondary scoring. The top line is going to be productive now that Ribeiro's in town, but what about the other units? Doan has been a model of consistency in his career and is good for 55-60 points on an annual basis, but can Hanzal and Korpikoski step up and produce more offensively? If not, can they find someone who can? Do they put other wingers with Ribeiro to try and get them going? The only thing holding them back is offense. If they find it, the sky's the limit.
The Coyotes will make the playoffs if...
... offense is found past the first line, Smith returns to the form he showed two seasons ago, and the defense continues to be stingy. The organization loves to say that they play "hockey the hard way." I can't disagree with them, as many of the Coyotes' wins involve tight, one-goal margins coupled with impressive stands by the defense late in the third period. This group is capable of lighting the lamp more often now and as we learned from their run two years ago, this is a scary team when the offense is clicking. Smith has to be better this year, and he should be as long as the forward lines drive possession. Making the playoffs is a tall order in the NHL, but this team is up to it.
The Coyotes will miss the playoffs if...
... the offense struggles again, Smith can't find his game or gets hurt again, and the special teams don't improve. Phoenix is one of those teams that can be really good but they also can't afford to beat themselves, and they did that last year by failing to capitalize on opportunities and letting too many shots through. They have to play a more opportunistic game this season if they want to return to the postseason. With Vancouver and Edmonton now in their division, the Coyotes will have to raise their game. I believe that they'll get back to the playoffs, but as they say, anything can happen.
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