The recent memory of Stars fans is not currently a good one. Dallas has missed the playoffs for five straight seasons now, and they have also undergone an ownership change, a general manager change, and two coaching changes in that time period. The Stars recently rebranded, dropping what were without a doubt the most boring and ugly jerseys in the league in favor of some sharp looking sweaters (see logo above, it's the new one), and they are certainly hoping that with a new look comes a new winning attitude. They were busy in the offseason, addressing their biggest need by bringing in centermen Tyler Seguin and Rich Peverley in a trade with Boston that sent Loui Eriksson to the Bruins, and signing former Oilers captain Shawn Horcoff. They are now, however, not so deep on the wings, but centers are a more valuable commodity.The Stars will be a better team than they were last year.
Projected Forward Lines:
Jamie Benn - Tyler Seguin - Rich Peverley
Ray Whitney - Cody Eakin - Valeri Nichushkin
Erik Cole - Shawn Horcoff - Alex Chiasson
Ryan Garbutt - Vernon Fiddler - Antoine Roussel
Chris Mueller - Lane MacDermid
For the first time since their last playoff appearance, Dallas looks like they're strong down the middle. Seguin will get the 1C role he so desperately coveted in Boston but could not get because of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci, who were far too good to drop on their depth chart. He'll play alongside captain Benn and his teammate from Boston, Peverley. Youth abounds on the right side, with rookies Nichushkin and Chiasson likely to see big roles in their first full seasons. Each one is playing with veterans on his line, so mentoring will be key for guys like Whitney, Horcoff, Cole, and Fiddler. You probably won't see more than Benn and Seguin top the 60-point mark, but there will be plenty of depth scoring with this group. This is a forward group that will find ways to win games, and it will probably be different heroes each time. The most obvious flaw here is consistency, because they can't simply rely on the top line to win games.
Projected Defensive Pairings:
Alex Goligoski - Brenden Dillon
Sergei Gonchar - Stephane Robidas
Kevin Connauton - Trevor Daley
Aaron Rome
This defense will be a factor in the offensive zone for sure. Goligoski and Gonchar are the bombers from the point, and they will each score their fair share of goals. The top pair is pretty well set in stone, but past that it's a toss up. Gonchar will be on the second pairing, but I wonder who he'll wind up playing with. My (complete) guess is Robidas, as he is a good two-way defenseman that will complement Gonchar's more offensive style. Connauton appears ready to step up and make the team as well. He'll be competing with Rome and Jamie Oleksiak for a spot on the team and playing time. Daley provides both a veteran presence and surprising scoring touch to the group, and he'll find a home on the third pair.
Goaltending:
Kari Lehtonen
Dan Ellis
Lehtonen, when healthy, can be one of the best goalies in the NHL. It's great for Dallas, then, that he's been relatively injury-free for the last three years. Ellis was brought in to be the backup, a spot previously held by Richard Bachman, who is now in Edmonton. Lehtonen saw a drop in his stat totals last season, going 16-15-3 with a 2.66 GAA and a .916 save percentage. He should have better offensive support this season, and if he puts up numbers like the ones above again the Stars will need to score plenty to win games. Lehtonen is now the highest-paid player on the team after signing a five-year, $29.5 million contract, and he needs to play like he's deserving of that contract for this team to snap the playoff drought.
Special Teams:
With greater forward depth and Gonchar quarterbacking the power play, their 17% success rate will go up. The Stars were inconsistent with the man advantage last year and in today's NHL you have to be able to punish teams when they take penalties. What makes Dallas a potentially dangerous team with the man advantage this year is that they might be able to wheel out two full units where every player can score. One thing that Dallas has to get better at is discipline. They had the third-most penalty kills (179) in the NHL and were -8 on total special teams chances a season ago. The penalty kill was decent with an 81% success rate, but it's tough to keep your guys fresh when you're killing almost four penalties per game. Having a deeper group of centers should help in this area, with Fiddler and Horcoff getting the bulk of the work.
X-Factor:
Seguin's displeasure with being the 3rd line center is what got him traded out of Boston. Now that he's the man in Dallas, he has to prove that he's capable of being a #1 at this level. He's getting paid to be the best player on this team, and anything less than a career year from him has to be seen as a disappointment. He and Benn have to be the best players for the Stars on a nightly basis if they're going to contend for a playoff spot. They might both have to be point-per-game players this year, especially early on while the kids are still getting up to speed.
The Stars will make the playoffs if...
... the defense and Lehtonen can shoulder the load on nights that the offense doesn't produce, the right wing position doesn't prove to be a liability, and Seguin plays up to his contract. With the move to the Central Division comes all-new opponents for the Stars, and aside from Chicago and St. Louis they have very beatable opponents. It's going to be a race for third involving everyone else in that division, and winning that battle will be huge because I believe that the Pacific will get both wild cards and therefore five teams into the playoffs. If guys like Chiasson and Nichushkin stick and put up 40-45 points, the Stars will have a much better chance of ending their playoff drought.
The Stars will miss the playoffs if...
... Lehtonen gets injured, they fail to find secondary scoring, and Benn or Seguin gets injured. Dallas has a ton of uncertainties heading into this season, and they will not be consistent in the early going. They cannot afford injuries to the forwards or Lehtonen this season. Losing a defenseman wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, as it is their deepest position. Healthy or not, Dallas has to improve their discipline, the power play, and get the rookies up to speed as soon as possible in order to get where they want to be.
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