Vancouver fans finally got what they wanted this offseason, which is a resolution to the goaltending saga between Roberto Luongo, Corey Schneider, and the front office. However, they didn't get the result that they were expecting, as it was Schneider that was traded, not Luongo. The Canucks sent Schneider to New Jersey for the 9th overall pick, which they used to select center Bo Horvat. There were other changes for the Canucks, as Mason Raymond, Derek Roy, and Maxim Lapierre walked in free agency. They added depth forwards Brad Richardson and Mike Santorelli. The biggest change for the Canucks is behind the bench, with John Tortorella taking over. I have to wonder if his defensive style will hinder the offensive weapons that Vancouver has.
Projected Forward Lines:
Daniel Sedin - Henrik Sedin - Alex Burrows
David Booth - Ryan Kesler - Jannik Hansen
Chris Higgins - Brad Richardson - Zack Kassian
Benn Ferriero - Mike Santorelli - Dale Weise
Tom Sestitio - Zach Hamill
One look at this group and you wonder when this team became gutted on the right side. Burrows is a talented player who will score goals, but you're going to have either a defensive forward like Hansen or Kassian, who has 11 goals in his 83-game career. Clearly not the ideal situation for the Canucks, as you expect more offensive numbers from your second right winger. Vancouver should be better defensively than last year, and they were pretty good at that end of the ice (2.40 goals against per game, tied for 9th in the NHL). Secondary scoring might be a concern for this team, but we'll have to see how they begin the regular season before raising the red flags.
Projected Defensive Pairings:
Alex Edler - Kevin Bieksa
Dan Hamhuis - Jason Garrison
Yannick Weber - Chris Tanev
Frank Corrado
John Tortorella has really taken a liking to Alex Edler's skills and style of play, and so I believe he will land on the top pairing with the bruising, plays-bigger-than-he-is Bieksa. Garrison's big shot will help the Canucks score from the back and on the power play as well. The bottom pairing could be a bit of a revolving door, with Weber, Tanev, and Corrado all deserving of playing time this year. Hamhuis is a steady, responsible player who makes smart decisions on the ice. Overall, this is a balanced, solid defensive unit that will win its share of games for the Canucks.
Goaltending:
Roberto Luongo
Eddie Lack
Here's the part where I'm supposed to say that the Canucks traded the wrong goalie, that Schneider is better, and that Lack is going to get lit up in the games he plays. I'm not going to say any of those things. Why? Well, here are my opinions: it didn't matter which goalie they traded as long as the controversy got resolved, we don't know yet if Schneider is better than Luongo in a starter role, and I don't think Lack will have too much trouble adjusting to the speed of the NHL game. I'll know after the season ends whether the Canucks made the right move, but it has to feel good for Luongo to not have to look over his shoulder anymore.
Special Teams:
Vancouver was subpar on the power play at 15.8%, which was 22nd in the NHL. I can't imagine that having John Tortorella and Mike Sullivan behind the bench will improve those numbers, but I've seen crazier things happen. Vancouver just doesn't have enough flexibility with their forward depth to give opponents different looks. The Canucks were a -4 on the differential last year, but their penalty kill was a strong suit for them. Successful 84% of the time when shorthanded, Vancouver had the 8th-best kill in the NHL. They'll need to sustain that success in order to make a better showing than last season, when they got swept out of the first round by San Jose.
X-Factor:
A coaching change is always an interesting situation for a team, because we get to see how they'll play under the new system and find out if there are players who thrive or suffer due to it. I think that will be the biggest determining factor of a successful season for Vancouver. They have to make the adjustment to Tortorella's system, and it's really the forwards who have to make the biggest commitment to it. The Sedin twins will have to play on both ends of the ice and block shots, something that was not commonplace under Alain Vigneault.
The Canucks will make the playoffs if...
... Luongo and the defense can carry the team for stretches at a time, the offense doesn't completely disappear under Tortorella, and the depth players provide enough help to keep them afloat. These aren't your older brother's Canucks anymore. They no longer can go out on the ice every night and look dominant. This is a team that has slipped back into the pack, and will have to play an elevated level of hockey to distinguish themselves again. When comparing them to the rest of the division, they're a tough team to peg. There's the potential for a high finish, but also the danger that their playoff fate will remain uncertain until the end of the year.
The Canucks will miss the playoffs if...
... the offense can't get it going, Luongo looks old, and the bottom six is a black hole when it comes to scoring. Moving into the Pacific Division has done them no favors. They'll have to face the upper crust of that division more often this year and whether they make the playoffs will be determined by their play in those games. They went 11-6-1 against their Northwest foes last year, but just 6-7-2 against the Pacific, and now the Coyotes are greatly improved from what we saw a season ago. It's going to be a fight for the Canucks this year, no doubt about it.
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