Based on the way Pittsburgh steamrolled the rest of the Eastern Conference last year, you would think that they would have done the same in the playoffs. After getting all they could handle from the Islanders in the first round and then making short work of the Senators in the Conference Semifinals, they came into the Eastern Conference Finals against Boston on a hot streak. What happened next could not have been predicted - the Penguins scored just two goals en route to a sweep at the hands of the Bruins. There was some slight retooling done this offseason. They brought in Matt D'Agostini to bolster the forward depth and brought back Rob Scuderi to help the defense. They let a number of players walk in free agency, including Jarome Iginla, Douglas Murray, Brenden Morrow, Tyler Kennedy, Matt Cooke, and Mark Eaton. What's left is a Penguins team with the same top-tier core, but surrounding parts that might need time to take shape.
Projected Forward Lines:
Chris Kunitz - Sidney Crosby - Pascal Dupuis
Beau Bennett - Evgeni Malkin - James Neal
Jussi Jokinen - Brandon Sutter - Matt D'Agostini
Tanner Glass - Joe Vitale - Craig Adams
Dustin Jeffrey - Andrew Ebbett
Bennett is the notable addition to the top six, as he will get the first chance to play alongside Malkin and Neal. Kunitz and Dupuis will again have inflated stats from being on Crosby's line, so consider them in fantasy if you're looking for forward help. The bottom six has some depth, with Jokinen providing secondary scoring and Sutter helping with faceoffs. As always, Crosby and Malkin will drive this team's ship, and provided they remain healthy the Penguins will be a force. I have to question the defensive merits of the forward group, as their constant attacking has left them open to poor defense in years' past.
Projected Defensive Pairings:
Rob Scuderi - Kris Letang
Paul Martin - Brooks Orpik
Simon Despres - Matt Niskanen
Derek Engelland
When Letang isn't an adventure in his own end, he's a top defenseman in this league. Scuderi will go right on the top pairing and should provide more stability for a defense that finished 12th in goals against but had trouble at times and really looked bad in the playoffs. Martin rediscovered his game last year and looked much better than in 2011-12, when he was a complete disaster. Niskanen's name has come up a bunch of trade rumors, and the Penguins might deal him to get under the cap. For now, he remains in the lineup. Engelland will play when they want an added physical edge.
Goaltending:
Marc-Andre Fleury
Tomas Vokoun
This is sort of a contract year for Fleury, but not in the sense that the term usually implies. One would have to think that if Fleury's awful performance in the playoffs carries over to this regular season and he struggles, that Pittsburgh will buy him out after the season and he'll be looking for a job somewhere else. Vokoun took over during the first round series win over the Islanders and played admirably, but at age 37 he isn't likely to get the starting job here or for another contender. The Penguins are capable of playing good team defense, but Fleury has to hold up his end of the bargain too.
Special Teams:
Pittsburgh's lethality on the power play continued last year. They finished 2nd in the NHL with a 24.6% conversion rate, topped only by Washington. They can roll out a lot of weaponry on the man advantage, with Letang quarterbacking things from the point. I'm not sure they have a second defenseman who can take on those duties, so we may see them use four forwards on the other unit. Pittsburgh was +3 on the special teams differential, but they have to do better when killing penalties. Finishing 25th in the NHL at 79.6% isn't going to cut it this season. They have to be better during scrambles, because they got victimized a few times late in the season on them.
X-Factor:
It has to be Marc-Andre Fleury. How will he respond after getting blasted in the playoffs again? Will see the goalie who we know is capable of winning the Vezina Trophy? Or will we see the man who gave up multiple soft goals en route to getting benched? Pittsburgh is a playoff team no matter who is in net, the success or failure of Fleury will be what determines how far they will go in the playoffs. GM Ray Shero has put together a Cup or bust roster here, so anything less than going the distance is a disappointment.
The Penguins will make the playoffs if...
... nothing goes tragically wrong, Crosby and Malkin aren't both injured for extended periods of time, and everyone does their job. Look, the Metropolitan Division is stout. It's filled with good offenses, defenses, and goaltenders. However, the Penguins are clearly a cut above the rest of the pack. Few teams can match their skill and depth, and even fewer can keep players like Crosby and Malkin off the scoresheet. This is a strong offensive team that knows how to win, and they'll use their talents to secure a playoff spot for sure.
The Penguins will miss the playoffs if...
... good one.
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