I think if there's one phrase that personifies the San Jose Sharks, it's "wait 'til next year!" Every season, it seems that the Sharks are showing such great promise and skill as they charge up the conference standings, and yet once they reach the playoffs they can't finish the job and take home the Stanley Cup. Last year's version of the team played solid hockey, entered the playoffs as the 6th seed in the Western Conference, and looked like a darkhorse after they swept Vancouver in the first round. They fought valiantly in the next series but ultimately could not close out the rival Kings, losing in seven games. Changes were minor for the Sharks, who let T.J. Galiardi and Thomas Greiss go and signed Tyler Kennedy. They'll also be without top-six mainstay Martin Havlat to start the season, as he recovers from offseason surgery. The Sharks are shooting for their 10th straight playoff appearance this year, and it's going to take another solid effort to get there.
Projected Forward Lines:
Patrick Marleau - Logan Couture - Brent Burns
Martin Havlat - Joe Thornton - Tommy Wingels
Tomas Hertl - Joe Pavelski - Tyler Kennedy
Raffi Torres - Andrew Desjardins - Adam Burish
James Sheppard - Bracken Kearns
The loss of Havlat leaves the Sharks paper-thin on the wings and also necessitates secondary scoring from the bottom six. Hertl is coming over from the Czech Republic this year and could figure into the Sharks plans sooner than expected. He might have to fill an important role this season as opposed to playing on the third line and cutting his teeth, but based on his two good seasons with Slavia Praha, the 19-year old should be ready to contribute. Couture is once again going to be counted on to improve his production, just like every year in his career thus far. This is his team now, and he has to become the leader on and off the ice. Burns will begin his first full season as a winger, and it's safe to say that the Sharks are expecting at least 20 goals from him. Even with an injury to the defense, Burns should stay on the top forward line, as the Sharks defense has enough depth to withstand the loss of one player. It's crazy to say that the forward unit might be the weakest piece of this roster, but the general lack of depth and question marks on the wings are troubling.
Projected Defensive Pairings:
Matt Irwin - Dan Boyle
Marc-Edouard Vlasic - Justin Braun
Scott Hannan - Brad Stuart
Jason Demers
This unit can cover a lot of bases for the Sharks. Boyle and Irwin will work the power play, Hannan is their bruising shutdown defenseman, Vlasic is an elite skater who can make up for any lapses with his speed, Stuart brings experience, and Braun has size and can help clear the front of the net. Their 7th defenseman, Demers, would be in the lineup on most teams. This unit will be a strength for the Sharks, and they'll have to be especially stout early in the year while the forwards sort themselves out. They normally answer the bell when needed, and I think this year will be no different.
Goaltending:
Antti Niemi
Alex Stalock
Niemi had a hell of a season in 2012-13: 24-12-6, 2.16 GAA, .924 save percentage. Those numbers were enough to get him a Vezina nomination. He didn't win, but let that serve as an extra bit of motivation for the Finnish netminder heading into this season. He may have to work extra this year, because his backup (Stalock) only has three games of NHL experience. Niemi is used to a large workload, appearing in 43 out of a possible 48 games last year and starting all 11 games in the playoffs. He should play well again this season, but I wonder if he'll burn out at the end of the season.
Special Teams:
Few words go together better than "deadly" and "San Jose Sharks power play" - they finished at 20.1%, which put them in a tie for 7th in the NHL with the Oilers. They usually use four forwards on the first unit, with a front line of Marleau-Thornton-Couture and Pavelski-Boyle on the points. If Havlat is able to come back from injury and plays well, he could see time on the second unit with Burns, Irwin, and perhaps Wingels and Vlasic. The Sharks were equally good on the penalty kill, finishing 6th in the league at 85%. They were also +22 on the special teams differential, so they were trending in the right direction last season.
X-Factor:
The wing depth. How well will it hold up, if it does, and can they get scoring from the rookie Hertl and other unexpected sources? There will be a lot of pressure on the top line, Thornton, and Pavelski to steady the ship through the first couple of months. We may see the Sharks score five goals on one night but then get shutout the next. No matter how it gets done, the most important thing that this team needs to find in the early stages of the season is consistency on offense. The defense and goaltending will hold up and keep them in games, but sooner or later someone other than the big guns will have to start scoring.
The Sharks will make the playoffs if...
... they find the offense they need, the defense continues to play well, and the special teams remain lights out. This Sharks team looks vulnerable on paper. They have a good nucleus of forwards in place, they have a quality backend and a Stanley Cup winner in net, but they're an injury or two away from struggling. San Jose is really a better version of Dallas right now, with depth down the middle, a goal scoring winger, but not a whole lot else up front. They play in a tough division and they will get the best shot from opponents every night, given their success, but somehow the Sharks always seem to find a way to make the playoffs.
The Sharks will miss the playoffs if...
... the defense plays surprisingly poor, they suffer an extended slow start to the season, and Niemi gets burnt out because he isn't being rested enough. I could make a case against every team in the Pacific when it comes to making the playoffs. Well, maybe not Los Angeles. Anyway, the Sharks' window of opportunity for a Cup with this group is just about closed. They're rapidly approaching the time where they may have to blow up the forwards and rebuild around Couture, but they could also steal a page from the Red Wings' playbook and simply try to find the right guys for their system and build that way. Realignment does them no favors, with Dallas moving out and the western Canadian teams coming in. The Sharks are capable of running their streak to ten, but it certainly won't be easy.
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