Before you read this article, I want you to think back to the beginning of last season. Try to remember the way the Capitals started the season. It may not be easy to recall the fact that Washington was a comedy of errors in their 2-8-1 start that left them in last place in the Southeast Division. They were dead in the water at that point, and lesser squads would have given up. However, the Caps stormed back after that, going 15-2-2 in their final 19 regular season games and went on to win the weak Southeast Division. They lost a hard-fought series to the Rangers that went the full seven games, but for this team, it's a building block towards potential future success. Their offseason was looking pretty dicey after losing Mike Ribeiro to Phoenix in free agency, but then they went out and signed Mikhail Grabovski in the hopes that he is a worthy replacement.
Projected Forward Lines:
Marcus Johansson - Nicklas Backstrom - Alex Ovechkin
Martin Erat - Mikhail Grabovski - Troy Brouwer
Jason Chimera - Brooks Laich - Eric Fehr
Tom Wilson - Jay Beagle - Joel Ward
Aaron Volpatti - Mathieu Perreault
That top six becomes quite a bit more dangerous when Johansson is moved from center to the left side, a position of weakness for the Caps. The addition of Grabovski means that the Capitals are very strong down the middle, and what was looking like a potential hole in the absence of Ribeiro is now filled by Grabovski. The biggest question I have regarding the Grabovski signing is whether or not he can fill Ribeiro's shoes on the power play. Man advantage situations are where Ribeiro truly excels, and it'll be interesting to see if Washington can perform well again without him. The Capitals have no shortness of tough guys in the lineup, with the third line acting as a traditional checking line and the fourth containing defensive forwards.
Projected Defensive Pairings:
Karl Alzner - Mike Green
Dmitri Orlov - John Carlson
John Erskine - Steve Oleksy
Jack Hillen
Carlson is probably the Caps' best defenseman overall, but Alzner and Green have been playing together long enough that coach Adam Oates isn't going to split them. The loss of Schultz this offseason means more playing time for somebody, and I think it'll be Orlov. Washington still believes that he can be a factor on their roster after he missed most of last season with an upper-body injury. The bottom pair will be a committee of the three men listed and Thomas Kundratek, but I believe that Oleksy and Erskine will get the lion's share of the minutes between them, due to their size.
Goaltending:
Braden Holtby
Michael Neuvirth
Is Washington finally ready to give Holtby the keys to the car after questions surrounded him heading into last year? Judging by his 23-12-1 record and .920 save percentage, I would say that answer is a resounding "yes." His 2.58 GAA was probably a bit higher than the team would like, but keep in mind that the goaltending situation was completely awful for Washington in the first quarter of last year. Neuvirth remains a capable goalie and I believe that he'll find another starting job somewhere once his contract runs out after the 2014-15 season, if not sooner via trade or something.
Special Teams:
If you wanted to watch power play excellence, all you had to do was flip the Caps games on last year. They posted an absolutely obscene 26.8% conversion rate with the man advantage, which was the best in the NHL. They didn't quite reach that number in their series with the Rangers, logging an 18.8% clip there. They had little trouble getting that unit on the ice last year, averaging a little less than 3.5 chances per game. They finished +1 on the special teams differential. However, it's the penalty kill that has to make marked improvements this year, as they finished with a 77.9% success rate, good for 27th in the NHL. Their discipline needs to be better on the road, as they were the fourth-most shorthanded team in road tilts last year. Fix that, and I believe they'll right the ship.
X-Factor:
Can Grabovski replace Ribeiro? It was really the only major development for Washington this offseason, and fans are eager to see what Grabovski can do now that he's gotten a change of scenery. I think he's capable of topping Ribeiro's goal total from last year (which projected to 22 over a full 82-game schedule), but I don't think he gets as many assists (Ribeiro was on pace for 61 last year) and I definitely don't think he matches Ribeiro's skills on the power play. It's probably an upgrade in the long run due to the ages of the players, but I'm not so sure that the move makes them better this season.
The Capitals will make the playoffs if...
... they avoid another bad start, the goalies play the way they should, and enough depth scoring is found to take pressure off of Ovechkin's line. I'll be honest, I thought the Caps had little to no chance of making the playoffs this year when Ribeiro left. Now that they signed Grabovski, they're back in the discussion. They still have to go through the rigorous Metropolitan Division; gone are the days of fattening up on the Southeast's patsies en route to bloated point totals and playoff seeds that were better than the talent on the roster. Every night will be a battle for this team and I think they're up to the task.
The Capitals will miss the playoffs if...
... we see the exact same start as last year, Grabovski doesn't pan out, and the younger defensemen show some cracks in their game. The Metropolitan Division is tough to handicap this year, because a few teams got better, a few teams got worse, and it adds up to a logjam in the standings after Pittsburgh. It's going to be a tight race all year long, and so the Caps absolutely cannot afford to come out of the gate flat again, like last year. Columbus proved a year go how an awful start can bury you, and the Caps should be counting their blessings that they had a bunch of scrubs to beat up (aside from the Jets) in their division last year. They don't have that luxury anymore.
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