Very little went right for the Avalanche last year, as they were only able to manage 39 points, putting them in last place in the Western Conference. The Draft Lottery was kind to them, however, granting them the #1 pick. However, instead of fulfilling a need by drafting Seth Jones, they went with more offense and picked center Nathan MacKinnon. It was a truly puzzling move that may prove to pay off, but until then the jury is out on Colorado's draft strategy, opting to use five of its seven picks on defensemen but not taking Jones at #1. Colorado brought back an old friend in Alex Tanguay when they received him and Cory Sarich from Calgary in exchange for David Jones and Shane O'Brien. They also signed Andre Benoit for defensive depth. Aside from that, last year's roster is largely unchanged, save for the big hole left by the departure of Milan Hejduk, who may or may not be retiring.
Project Forward Lines:
Ryan O'Reilly - Matt Duchene - Gabriel Landeskog
Alex Tanguay - Paul Stastny - P-A Parenteau
Jamie McGinn - Nathan MacKinnon - Steve Downie
Cody McLeod - John Mitchell - Mark Olver
Patrick Bordeleau - Brad Malone
Goals will not be a problem for the Colorado forwards this season. This is a loaded top nine when healthy, but health has not been the Avs' strong suit lately. Downie only appeared in two games last season before suffering a torn ACL. The now-departed Hejduk missed 19 games. Stastny missed eight. Landeskog missed 12. Colorado has to avoid the injury bug this year if they want to succeed. Barring injuries, there is a huge amount of potential in this group and I expect to see marked improvement in the offensive numbers this season. They are deep down the middle and have a variety of skills on the wings. Parenteau will be a distributor and should figure big time on the power play. Duchene can do a little bit of everything. The rest of the forwards have to step up, though. Parenteau and Duchene each had 43 points last season, but no one else had more than 24 (Stastny, McGinn was next with 22). The work in the offensive end combined with the talent level needs to show results, or else it might be time to blow it up and rebuild around Landeskog, Duchene, and MacKinnon.
Projected Defensive Pairings:
Jan Hejda - Tyson Barrie
Ryan Wilson - Erik Johnson
Matt Hunwick - Cory Sarich
Andre Benoit
It's no secret that bad defense negatively impacts the offense, and Colorado was pretty terrible without the puck last year. Colorado only made small changes to the lower pairings, acquiring Sarich and signing Benoit while trading O'Brien and letting Greg Zanon walk in free agency. Looking at the group they plan to send out on opening night, it's really only marginally better than it was last year. There isn't much reason to expect improvement from the defense this year. Who quarterbacks the power play? Who kills penalties? Who can be relied on for big third period minutes? Seth Jones could have done one or more of those things if Colorado had drafted him first overall, but instead they passed and went with MacKinnon. This group has to be better at getting out of their own zone and not allowing chances; giving up over 31 shots per game is not going to get the job done.
Goaltending:
Semyon Varlamov
Jean-Sebastien Giguere
In all fairness, Varlamov was hung out to dry a bunch last year, but he did regress badly and he still hasn't come close to playing at the level he was showing in Washington. His goals against was above 3 (ouch), his save percentage was only .903 (double ouch), and he was 11-21-3 (somebody call a doctor) in 35 starts. The blame falls equally on him and the defense, in my estimation. At 36 years old, Giguere is beginning to approach the end of his career, but he's definitely one of the best backups in the league. I'm sure if you asked him, he'd say he still thinks he can be a starter in the NHL. Then again, if you ask him after a loss you might get a response similar to this tirade that occurred late last season following a 3-1 loss to Calgary at the Pepsi Center (it's well worth the read). I think his words struck the correct chords, but sometimes work ethic just isn't enough and I think in this case the defense's problem is talent.
Special Teams:
Colorado was not the most disciplined team last year, taking 12.5 PIM per game (22nd). Furthermore, they were -43 in total special teams opportunities, which was the worst in the NHL. The conversion rates of their power play (24th) and their PK (T-20th) didn't help matters either. That has to get cleaned up as soon as possible. They're another one of those teams that on paper look like they should have a top 5 power play, but said result simply hasn't happened yet. They were, however, tied for 9th in 2011-12. They can plug almost anyone in on the power play, but the penalty kill is concerning. Mitchell and McGinn will be killing, but past that I'm not sure who the Avs put in on their second unit. The same goes for the defense, where it should be Hejda and Sarich on the first team, but an unknown on the second. Wilson and Hunwick? I'm not sure. It would seem that training camp and the preseason will deliver answers to my questions, so we'll have to wait and see.
X-Factor:
The biggest variable in Colorado's formula for success is mistakes. Can they play well enough in their own end to cut the number down drastically? Based on the lineup changes, I say they'll be better, but not good enough. When I watched them play last season, I saw a team that was disjointed, even discombobulated in its own zone. I refuse to call them lazy or unmotivated or whatever word you would attribute to this sort of thing, but they didn't make the right plays often last year. Having a new coach will hopefully bring about positive change, and the fact that it's Patrick Roy can't hurt. I suppose that he's the X-Factor here. How quickly can he bring about a new mentality and a new culture for this team?
The Avalanche will make the playoffs if...
... the defense bails out the front office's idiotic decision to pass on Jones, Varlamov plays like he did in Washington and the forwards stay healthy. Make no mistake; this division is definitely weak enough for Colorado to make a move. After Chicago and St. Louis, it's wide open in the Central. The rest of the field has their strengths, but they also have damning flaws. Colorado is not without theirs, but if they score enough goals and play responsibly, a surprise playoff berth is not completely out of the question. Having a new coach and likely a new system will help, as the defense would be hard pressed to do worse than last year. If it all comes together, they could be a bubble team.
The Avalanche will miss the playoffs if...
... there are more growing pains than expected in Roy's first year behind the bench, the defense continues to make grievous errors in their own end, and Varlamov can't find his form again. It's difficult for me to say that Colorado is anything more than slightly better this year, based on their relative lack of changes to the lineup. However, if this front office feels they can win with this group of forwards (they absolutely can) and this defense (they definitely cannot), then let's see what happens. It all adds up to a team that will be breathtaking to watch on offense, but utterly infuriating in their own end. I hope Colorado fans have good health insurance, because this is the NHL's version of the Cardiac Kids.
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