Quick, who would you say is the team with the most momentum heading into the 2013-14 season? Chicago and Boston would both be perfectly valid answers, but I'm going to go with Columbus. Last year, the Blue Jackets proved that a bad start can kill your season; so much so that their 4-12-4 start could not be saved, even by a torrid 20-5-3 finish. Columbus finished tied for the final playoff spot in the West, but lost out to Minnesota on the non-shootout wins tiebreaker. This season marks a couple of new beginnings for Columbus in terms of a new conference (Eastern) and a new division (Metropolitan). They'll find the level of play to be roughly even with their old Central rivals, so the Jackets shouldn't suffer much, if at all, due to competition. They made a big splash this offseason when they signed Nathan Horton to a seven year deal worth $37.1 million, though Horton is out for a while after undergoing shoulder surgery in June. Columbus will once again be backstopped by defending Vezina winner Sergei Bobrovsky, and folks around the league are anxious to see if he can duplicate last year's performance.
Projected Forward Lines:
R.J. Umberger - Artem Anisimov - Marian Gaborik
Cam Atkinson - Ryan Johansen - Nathan Norton
Matt Calvert - Brandon Dubinsky - Nick Foligno
Blake Comeau - Mark Letestu - Jared Boll
Derek MacKenzie - Jack Skille
Unless you live in New York or Columbus, there are not a lot of household names on this roster. Off the top of my head, I can name seven players listed in this article who have played for either the Rangers or the Islanders: Anisimov, Gaborik, Dubinsky, Comeau, Wisniewski, Tyutin, and Erixon. I used to jokingly refer to the Jackets' forward group as "Rangers West", but now that the two teams play in the same division the moniker has become obsolete. Looking at this team, they have a number of talented forwards up top, and they're backed by bruisers at the bottom. Dubinsky, Boll, and Foligno are all heavy hitters, and the Jackets can always dress Skille and/or MacKenzie for some added punch. It'll be interesting to see who fills the right wing spot occupied by Horton in his absence. I'm going to go with Calvert, because he has sick hands and can create his own shot.
Projected Defensive Pairings:
Jack Johnson - James Wisniewski
Fedor Tyutin - Nikita Nikitin
Tim Erixon - Dalton Prout
Cody Goloubef
No changes from the end of last season to report here. This is the same group that played well down the stretch, en route to finishing in a three-way tie for 9th in goals allowed. There is a good combination of puck movers and stay-at-home guys here, but they all get involved when in the offensive zone. This solid two-way play on the blueline is something that many teams lack, so it alone proves to be an edge for the Jackets on some nights. There has also been a lot of talk about whether top prospect Ryan Murray will make the team out of training camp; I think he'd be better served playing a full season in the AHL first. Make him a top pairing guy for Springfield so that he learns how to play in that role, then send him up to the big club next year and let him run wild.
Goaltending:
Sergei Bobrovsky
Curtis McElhinney
How do you improve on a Vezina-winning campaign? By silencing the doubters and haters who are all saying that it was a fluke. That is what Bobrovsky hopes to do this season, and he might have to in order to see the playoffs this season. Columbus was ranked 25th in goal scoring last season, so if the offense doesn't make strides this year he's going to have to duplicate his success. The fact that he put up such great numbers (21-11-6, 2.00 GAA, .932 save %) while the Blue Jackets allowed roughly 30 shots on goal per game makes it all the more amazing. The man could use some help from the team in front of him is all I'm saying. McElhinney will be the backup for Columbus, and this will be his first time playing in a Jackets uniform, having spent last season in Springfield.
Special Teams:
One area of the game that the Jackets must look to for improvement is the power play. They were 28th a season ago, and once Horton returns from injury I think that they'll be a more productive unit. The problem for Columbus is that you could say their power play is a poor man's version of Washington's, in that everybody knows where the puck is going for the shot (in this case, Gaborik) and there aren't many other options besides that. They will have to find other outlets for shots and goals to keep opposing PK units honest. The Jackets were good at staying out of the penalty box, as they were shorthanded three times per game on average. They were also +11 in the special teams chances battle, and were the 11th-best team on the penalty kill last season. They should be strong on the kill again this year, with their entire defense returning giving continuity.
X-Factor:
There are two, in my mind: whether or not Bobrovsky can continue his elite level of play and how Horton fares when he returns from injury. If Bobrovsky gets a little more help in the form of shot blocking, a better flow of play from the offense, and a more sustained attack by the Jacket's forwards (they were outshot by 3.2 per game last year), he can succeed again this year. Horton is another story, as shoulder injuries are tough in hockey. If his recovery and therapy go well and he's ready to contribute, then obviously the sooner the better for his return. However, if he struggles at first, I wonder how long the coaching staff goes before they consider juggling the lines. Horton must also show that he's earned his $5.3 million annual salary and to do that he'll have to play like one of the star players on this team, which he is practically by default.
The Blue Jackets will make the playoffs if...
... the defense is up to the challenge of stopping the high-scoring offenses in the Metropolitan Division, the offense gets more pucks to the net, and Bobrovsky has another banner year. Their new division rivals are quite good at putting the puck in the net. Of the seven other teams in the Metropolitan Division, only New Jersey finished in the bottom half of the league in scoring last year. The Jackets' defenders have to be up to the task night in and night out for this team to succeed. Of course, the offense must also improve, as they didn't get enough shots (26.7 per game) to really test opposing defenses and didn't score enough goals. Another thing they must avoid is using their incredible play when entering the third with a lead (13-0-0) as an excuse to park the bus, if you will. Only one other team was undefeated when leading after two, the Rangers at 16-0-0. Bobrovsky was stellar late in games last year but this is a team that absolutely cannot go into the turtle if they have a late lead, because there isn't enough talent and depth to just turn it back on if the game becomes tied.
The Blue Jackets will miss the playoffs if...
... they can't hang with the better teams in the Metropolitan Division, Bobrovsky comes back down to earth, the offense doesn't improve or Gaborik gets injured. One look at the Blue Jackets' roster screams "bubble team" to me. They're going to be a tough team to peg when I'm trying to come up with my season predictions, as I believe they can finish anywhere from 3rd to 7th this season. It's nice to see this franchise look like it's finally turning the corner, but there is still a lot that has to go right for the Blue Jackets to both make the playoffs and win a playoff game, something they have never done in their 13-year history.
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