To all my friends who are reading this: I told you so. Prior to last season, I said that it would be the year that the Islanders would surprise and make the playoffs. They may not have advanced past the first round, but they put up one hell of a fight against the Penguins and took them to six games. The offseason brought some changes to the upstart Islanders. They traded disgruntled prospect Nino Niederreiter to Minnesota for forward Cal Clutterbuck and a pick, which they used to select goaltender Eamon McAdam of the USHL. They also signed Pierre-Marc Bouchard and Peter Regin to upgrade the forward unit. Brad Boyes was let go in free agency, as well as Marty Reasoner, who is believed to be retiring. They still have to make a decision on RFA David Ullstrom, too. With the NHL's lowest payroll, the Islanders believe in making the most of what they have. They'll have to repeat that performance to return to the playoffs.
Projected Forward Lines:
Matt Moulson - John Tavares - Pierre-Marc Bouchard
Josh Bailey - Frans Nielsen - Kyle Okposo
Michael Grabner - Ryan Strome - Colin McDonald
Matt Martin - Casey Cizikas - Cal Clutterbuck
Peter Regin - Anders Lee
Before I say anything else about this forward unit, I need to stress how much it annoys me that Grabner can't crack the top six on this team. He has all the offensive skills in the world, but his lack of endurance and less physical game are what keep him on the third line, I suppose. Anyway, Bouchard will immediately be the 1RW for the Islanders, and will be expected to fill the voids of Brad Boyes and P-A Parenteau before him. The second line was so good last year that I'm fully expecting head coach Jack Capuano to keep them together for opening night and beyond. Moving on down to the fourth line, it'll have three players who are probably better than their "fourth line" designation would suggest, but what it means is that Capuano can confidently roll four lines against most teams.
Projected Defensive Pairings:
Travis Hamonic - Andrew MacDonald
Lubomir Visnovsky - Bryan Strait
Matt Carkner - Thomas Hickey
Matt Donovan
Here's where things turn into an adventure for the Islanders. Hamonic just signed a fat contract this past offseason and Visnovsky is also well-paid, but the other five defensemen who are currently under contract make just over $4 million... combined. The 21st-ranked defense in the NHL has to play better this year if they're going to make progress. They lost Mark Streit this offseason when he signed with the Flyers, but that doesn't mean that all the offense from the backend is gone. Visnovsky is still around to quarterback the power play, and it's easy to forget that just three years ago he put up 50 assists with the Ducks. However, losing Streit does mean that there will be more pressure on the forwards to create their own chances, as many of the other D-men are not puck movers.
Goaltending:
Evgeni Nabokov
Kevin Poulin
Last year's playoff exit has led me to believe that Nabokov is done. He wasn't bad in the regular season, with a 2.50 GAA and a .910 save percentage, but man did he ever get shredded by the Penguins in the conference quarterfinals. He looked old, slow, and quite frankly washed up. I believe that Poulin will get more work than he did last year (he only appeared in five of 48 games for the Islanders), somewhere in the neighborhood of 20-25 games. Poulin had a poor regular season but played brilliantly off the bench in the playoffs. It is imperative that this area of the ice is no longer the biggest liability here, or else the Isles will be on the outside looking in come season's end.
Special Teams:
Last year was a good one for the Isles on the man advantage, as their 19.9% conversion rate was enough to keep other teams honest and conscious about taking penalties. The Islanders were also +14 on the differential, which is a number they should aspire to repeat this season. My question here is whether or not the loss of Streit will negatively affect the power play by more than a negligible amount. If it does, they'll have to rely more on their 5 on 5 play (which wasn't great last year) to win games. The penalty kill was iffy last year, finishing at 80.3%, good for 21st in the NHL. They also weren't as dangerous while shorthanded as we're used to seeing, only scoring twice. Clutterbuck will be a key penalty killer this year, as will Grabner. Grabner is something of a shorthanded specialist, as his presence on the ice always makes opposing power plays think twice about making those D-to-D passes.
X-Factor:
The X-Factor is whoever is in net on a given night. Nabokov and Poulin have to improve upon their outputs from a season ago. The realignment is bringing three new division rivals, all of whom have potent goal scorers. While it's true that the team defense has to be better in order to stop opportunities before they start, the men with the masks and the big pads can't be so porous again. I'm not sure this team is any better than they were last year, so it falls on them to remedy the weaknesses and turn them into strengths.
The Islanders will make the playoffs if...
... the goalies are better, the defense is better, the penalty kill is better... you get the idea. These guys can light the lamp all night long, but they have to do a better job at making sure the one behind their net stays off. The defensemen need to be more responsible. The forwards can't turn the puck over so much. The goalies have to stand tall and be a plus for this team. Their division was already tough before, but now with the additions of Washington and Columbus (not to shortchange Carolina but the Islanders have owned them lately) they're going to have an uphill battle to get back to the playoffs.
The Islanders will miss the playoffs if...
... we see the same or worse defensive numbers this year. It's weird, the more I think about this team the more I'm talking myself out of picking them to make the playoffs. Normally when I spend a long time mulling over what a team has and what I think they can do, I eventually say to myself "these guys are a darkhorse, nobody will see it coming, watch out for them." And maybe that'll be the case this year, who knows? Expectations are certainly higher out on the Island but they're not through the roof, not yet at least. This is a team that can keep themselves in games with their goal scoring but can take themselves out of them just as quickly with poor defense. I wonder which team shows up at the start of the season.
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