Last season was an overall struggle for the Buffalo Sabres. Finishing in the bottom third of the NHL in scoring, defense, power play, and penalty kill, it's fair to say that they were a bad team in 2012-13. The Sabres were quiet this offseason, opting to make small changes to their roster. They traded Andrej Sekera to Carolina for Jamie McBain and a second round pick, which became centerman J.T. Compher. Scouts say he's a leader on the ice and has solid playmaking ability, but won't fill the net himself. It is unlikely that he'll be a factor this season, but keep an eye out down the road. Buffalo also signed defenseman Henrik Tallinder, who played for New Jersey last year. This looks like it's going to be a transition year for the Sabres, but we're also going to get a look at what the future of this franchise brings to the table.
Projected Forward Lines:
Thomas Vanek - Cody Hodgson - Drew Stafford
Tyler Ennis - Mikhail Grigorenko - Ville Leino
Marcus Foligno - Johan Larsson - Steve Ott
Patrick Kaleta - Kevin Porter - Brian Flynn
John Scott - Cody McCormick
The theme in Buffalo this year is youth down the middle. The four centers listed as being in the lineup have a combined 359 games between them, with Grigorenko and Larsson combining for just 26 of those games. Their experience on the wings is considerably better, and it behooves the Sabres' pivots to make smart decisions with the puck when they have it. Buffalo has wingers who can score, but that task will go incomplete unless the largely unproven centers can mesh with their linemates and make plays. There will no doubt be growing pains with this bunch, but all the same the scoring must improve; Scoring less than 2.5 goals per game isn't going to get it done this season. Steve Ott needs to be more of a factor as well. He agitates, draws penalties, takes a lot of penalties, and plays a good power game, but he needs to get back to the scoring form he showed in Dallas. He scored a career-high 22 goals in 2009-10 but hasn't come close to that number since. If he manages to stay on the ice more often this season, it could happen for him. The obvious drawback to having so many young players, of course, is that they can be mistake-prone. Keeping the turnovers down will be key for Buffalo.
Projected Defensive Pairings:
Christian Ehrhoff - Jamie McBain
Tyler Myers - Henrik Tallinder
Mike Weber - Alexander Sulzer
Mark Pysyk
Buffalo has opted to go a bit more offensive this year on the backend. The Sekera-McBain trade will no doubt improve the offensive potential of this group (Sekera has never scored more than four goals in a season), and Henrik Tallinder adds size to an already big blue line. Weber and Sulzer make up the third pair, and if nothing else the duo will be balanced. Weber stays at home, and Sulzer is a puck mover. He should see significant power play time for the Sabres and could see greatly improved offensive numbers by season's end. Overall, the defense should be more of a risk-reward group, but they'll also be more fun to watch. With a veteran-laden core and three players who are in contract years, effort should not be a question in Buffalo. Expect a blue collar performance from the defense night in, and night out.
Goaltending:
Ryan Miller
Jhonas Enroth
Exactly how long will Miller remain in Buffalo? His contract is up after this season and one would have to believe that he won't be back in a Sabres uniform in 2014-15. The question is, how long will GM Darcy Regier wait to deal him? Even if the Sabres surprise and are in contention this season, does he trade Miller anyway to try and get something back for him? Starting goalies rarely get traded at the deadline, so it would have to be to a team that might be in the thick of the playoff race but needs help in net. I'm thinking Philadelphia, Winnipeg, or even the Islanders. Jhonas Enroth is a capable backup who should see at least 20 games, and if Miller gets traded that number will rise over 30 and perhaps 35. If Miller sticks around the whole season, expect another solid year where he outperforms the team playing in front of him. If he doesn't, the team is in the hands of Enroth, and you can do a lot worse than having him as your backup.
Special Teams:
Buffalo was dreadful on both the power play and penalty kill last season, finishing 29th with the man advantage and 26th while a man down. It goes without saying that both of those figures need to improve for this team to have more success. Adding McBain gives them another puck mover who can run the power play, and the forward group has enough size to cause traffic jams in front of the net and win loose pucks. This is a power play unit that should be better than it is, but it just hasn't clicked for them yet. Playing in the Northeast Division last season, they saw talented goalies often in Carey Price, Tuukka Rask, Craig Anderson, and James Reimer. If the top six plays more consistently, the man advantage should be better. As for the PK, it's definitely a work in progress. Steve Ott is their best penalty killer, when he isn't in the box himself. The Tallinder signing gives them another responsible defenseman who should be a factor on the kill. The Sabres are not a very fast team, so they're going to have to survive by maintaining proper positioning and not taking too many chances when shorthanded. Drawing more penalties will help, as they were -15 in special teams chances last year.
X-Factor:
The biggest X-Factor on this team is the development of Grigorenko. He had five points in 25 games last year and will now be slotted in a top-six role. He has to essentially learn on the job because quite frankly, Buffalo has no better options. He will benefit from playing alongside Tyler Ennis, who has been productive for the Sabres even though his numbers have taken a dip the last couple of years. On the other side is Ville Leino, who has a long list of prior injuries and does not play a physical game. It all adds up to Buffalo having a soft second line, which could mean poor possession numbers. Grigorenko needs to be on the top line to have the greatest chance of success, but until he proves he can be the 1C for this group he's going to be behind Hodgson on the depth chart.
The Sabres will make the playoffs if...
... Ryan Miller turns in a Vezina-winning season, somebody else up front has a breakout season to take pressure off of Vanek, and they finish near the top of the league in puck possession. This is not a team that will win 5-4, and instead they'll want to grind out 2-1 wins. Dump and chase, slow the pace of the game down, and do just enough offensively to get two points every night. In addition to all the tough teams that the Sabres already see a lot of, now Detroit is in their division too. It's going to look like David against Goliath out on the ice on some nights, but this group just might have enough rocks to make some noise. The best players need to be the best players on a nightly basis and they have to find secondary scoring; these are the two biggest keys to Buffalo's chances.
The Sabres will miss the playoffs if...
... this team continues to play like it's on the rebuild, which is to be expected because that's exactly what they're doing. Buffalo allowed 33.5 shots on goal per game last year (they also blocked about 15 per game), which was the most in the NHL. It's attributed to mistakes, poor positioning, and an inability to maintain possession. Averaging 8 giveaways per game is too many. Miller, who is in a contract year and probably an audition for contending teams, has to be much better. The defense has to be better as well. Getting outshot so badly indicates that the Sabres were not very good in the neutral zone and they also were ineffective at clearing their defensive zone, whether by flipping it out, passing, or skating it clear. Finally, the forwards have to convert chances when they come. Buffalo only had four players who scored above a 50-point pace last season. I'm not sure we can expect Vanek to put up 88 points this year, which is what he projected to over an 82-game schedule, so the other guys who produced (Hodgson, Ennis, and Stafford) need to be either the same or better than they were last year to make up that difference.
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