Montreal was something of a surprise last year, riding a stout defense and timely scoring to a Northeast Division title. Unfortunately, they were unceremoniously destroyed by Ottawa in the first round of the playoffs in what was one of the more heated playoff series in recent memory. They find themselves in the new Atlantic Division, their old rivals being joined by the Florida teams and Detroit. Montreal was quiet this offseason, not making many moves. They're hoping that the addition of Danny Briere will add enough offense and veteran leadership to push them over the top this year. The Habs also brought in George Parros for his enforcer talents. This is a team that evaluated its regular season and thinks it's good enough to win this year with largely the same roster, so it'll be interesting to see how they do.
Projected Forward Lines:
Max Pacioretty - Tomas Plekanec - Alex Galchenyuk
Danny Briere - David Desharnais - Brian Gionta
Rene Bourque - Lars Eller - Brendan Gallagher
Travis Moen - Ryan White - Brandon Prust
George Parros - Louis LeBlanc
The addition of Briere plus the fact that Galchenyuk now has a year of NHL experience under his belt means that the Canadiens actually have a highly formidable top nine. This is a group that will use its finesse to score goals, as they lack a true power forward in the lineup. The offense was very good for the Habs last year, as they finished tied for 4th in the NHL in scoring and were one of only six teams to average greater than three goals per game. The centermen are the facilitators of the attack, setting up teammates and letting them put the puck in the net. There was also a lot of balance last year, with eight players scoring ten or more goals.
Projected Defensive Pairings:
Andrei Markov - P.K. Subban
Josh Gorges - Alexei Emelin
Francis Bouillon - Rafael Diaz
Jarred Tinordi
Markov and Subban make one of the most offensively gifted pairings in the NHL. Emelin can also light up the scoreboard when given the chance, and this year he looks to come back strong from a knee injury suffered last season. Diaz has displayed solid passing abilities and he too can fill the scoresheet for Montreal. Gorges and Bouillon are the best positional defensemen that they have, with their stay at home styles providing balance to an otherwise attack-happy blueline. It'll be interesting to see if Tinordi sticks this year, as he'll be fighting for a spot on the team all throughout camp.
Goaltending:
Carey Price
Peter Budaj
Something that strikes me as odd, or even amazing, is how much success Montreal had in the regular season even though Price's numbers took a significant dip. His save percentage was down 11 points and his GAA rose by .16 last year, and if the Canadiens want to make the next step this season he has to improve. Price is still only 26 years old and has plenty of good hockey left in him, but on a team where there is no one superstar or big-time scoring threat, he has to stand out in goal, and in a good way. Budaj had a solid regular season but got beat badly in the playoffs by the Senators on two occasions. He can be an adventure in net sometimes but he continues to play well enough overall to keep his job.
Special Teams:
Montreal was the 5th-best man advantage unit last year, putting up a solid 20.7% conversion rate. With bombers like Markov and Subban on the points, it's easy to see why they were so deadly when opponents took penalties. They were also the team with the most power play chances in the league last year, and it wasn't close. Their 203 chances were 18 more than the next team, Detroit. Part of the reason why I think the Habs take a step back this year is my opinion that they can't put up that high of a number again this year, be it their 4.23 power plays per game or their +30 special teams differential. The penalty kill needs to be better too. At just 79.8% last year (23rd in the NHL), they weren't very effective defensively and part of that can be attributed to Price's down year.
X-Factor:
Can Montreal find a breakout star? No one on the team was on pace to score 30 goals last year. While it's nice to have balance and the ability to get production from as many as nine guys on the forward unit, the downside is that there isn't really anyone on the roster who I'd have more than token confidence in during a clutch situation. They might have seven or eight players score 20 goals this year, and that's great, but is there a superstar here? I don't think so. Contrary to what people might believe, there IS such a thing as being too balanced.
The Canadiens will make the playoffs if...
... Price gets back to the form he showed in 2011-12, someone in the forward group emerges as a go-to guy, and the penalty kill improves. Montreal already has a good group of players in place, the challenge for the coaching staff and the players themselves is making the most of it. Ultimately, there are a bunch of small improvements to be made this season, and provided they get the same level of play from last year coupled with an improved Galchenyuk and Price, they'll be just fine.
The Canadiens will miss the playoffs if...
... they don't draw as many penalties, remain a largely undisciplined team, and the offensive production regresses. Look, Montreal is going to be hard-pressed to go +30 on special teams chances again. A number like that, while fantastic and speaking to their ability to agitate opponents, isn't sustainable. Even with that sparkling +30, they still were shorthanded 173 times, which is too many over a shortened season. They need to keep that number in the low 3s per game. I think something like 250 would be a good number to shoot for this season, while hopefully getting 270+ power plays. They'll contend for a spot this year, but I think they're a less safe pick than those I feel will rise to the top of the Atlantic Division.
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