They'll never admit it, but the Calgary Flames are very clearly taking a page from the playbook of their fiercest rival, the Edmonton Oilers. The Flames have finally decided that the old guard couldn't get it done, and they have now blown some of it up and look to rebuild through the draft. They got younger at the deadline, sending Jarome Iginla to Pittsburgh for two college prospects and the #28 pick in the recent draft, which became Morgan Klimchuk, who plays for the Regina Pats. The more intriguing pick they made was at the top of the board, selecting Sean Monahan 6th overall. He scored 78 points in 58 games last year for the Ottawa 67's of the OHL and appears to be an NHL-ready prospect. The Flames again went with younger skaters during the offseason, trading Alex Tanguay and Cory Sarich to Colorado for David Jones and Shane O'Brien. They also brought in Kris Russell to help on defense and T.J. Galiardi for added wing depth. The main question for this season is life without longtime starting goaltender Miikka Kiprusoff. Karri Ramo will get the first crack at replacing him and should see the lion's share of the work.
Projected Forward Lines:
Curtis Glencross - Mikael Backlund - Mike Cammalleri
Sven Baertschi - Sean Monahan - David Jones
Jiri Hudler - Matt Stajan - Lee Stempniak
T.J. Galiardi - Roman Horak - Brian McGrattan
Corban Knight - Tim Jackman
One thing that jumps out at you with this forward group is speed. Aside from Jones, this is a fast top six, and that speed continues down to the third and checking lines. Speed (usually) kills in hockey, so the Flames can get into up and down games with teams if they choose. Most of the veteran players here are defensively responsible and will allow the burners like Baertschi and Hudler to take chances. I expect the depth chart to change frequently, possibly on a game-by-game basis or even with some line juggling in-game by head coach Bob Hartley. A general lack of NHL-proven depth is an issue for this team, especially down the middle. Stajan led the team in +/- last year but the remaining centers on the roster have not yet produced the way the front office thinks they can and should. How this group is playing at the end of the season will be telling, as it will show progress made towards the future.
Projected Defensive Pairings:
Mark Giordano - Chris Butler
Dennis Wideman - T.J. Brodie
Shane O'Brien - Kris Russell
Mark Cundari
The Flames are younger and more offensively skilled on the blueline this season. Giordano and Wideman have been producers from the point in recent seasons, and the addition of Russell should aid the power play. He was nearly a point per game player overseas during the lockout, putting up 14 points in 15 games for Turku TPS in Finland's SM-liiga. Every defenseman in the top six has had at least one season of 20+ points, so the potential is there for this group to be a considerable contributor on offense. However, with a new starter in net for the first time in ten years, they would do well to play a more stay-at-home game in the early going; they did not do well in the turnover battle and ranked 27th in the NHL in hits. This group has to play better on the road as well, as the team was outscored by 29 goals on the road last year. O'Brien gives them size and responsibility, which never hurt on defense.
Goaltending:
Karri Ramo
Joey MacDonald
Ramo will get the call on opening night for the Flames, and my has he been impressive in the KHL the last few seasons. It's taken him a few years to find his game, but whatever the coaches in Omsk did while he was there, it worked. In four KHL seasons, Ramo posted a 99-48-22 record, with a 2.01 GAA and a .923 save percentage to go along with 18 shutouts. In 50 playoff games in Russia, he is 25-23, with a 1.91 GAA, .924 save percentage, and three shutouts. He hasn't fared nearly that well in his short stints with Tampa Bay, but I expect his numbers to be closer to his KHL totals than what he posted back then. Joey MacDonald was solid after being claimed off waivers by the Flames, going 8-5-1 with a 2.16 GAA and .912 save percentage. He'll begin the season as the backup, but if Ramo struggles expect to see more of him. The Flames also have an interesting prospect on the way up in Reto Berra, who has played in his native Switzerland for his entire career. Berra will likely start the year with the Abbotsford Heat, Calgary's AHL affiliate.
Special Teams:
Calgary's power play was good enough last year to make teams wary of taking penalties, finishing 9th in the NHL at 20%. Cammalleri and Hudler tied for the team lead with five power play goals apiece, and Cammalleri added ten assists to lead the team with 15 power play points. The backend made its presence known with the man advantage as well. Wideman was second on the team with 13 power play points, Brodie chipped in six, and Giordano added three. Expect those three to take the extra minutes of ice time on the power play, along with Russell. The added pieces up front mean that the Flames can mix and match the power play units. They now have a guy who can clog the net area in Jones, as well as the young Monahan to distribute the puck to the scorers. They'll be an exciting team to watch when a man up. The penalty kill was also pretty good, coming in at 14th with an 81.5% success rate. They'd like to see that number increase a bit, and the offseason moves should help. Galiardi saw some time on the PK for the Sharks and he's going to fill holes on the shorthanded units left by guys like Blake Comeau (now with Columbus), Steve Begin (AHL), and Tanguay (Colorado). Stajan and Stempniak will remain on the top unit, with Galiardi and either Jones or Glencross pulling second-team duties.
X-Factor:
The million dollar question for Calgary is whether or not Ramo can replicate his KHL success at the NHL level. He's going to be tested frequently by the talented offenses in the Pacific Division and the Flames did not play well defensively last year (28th overall, 29th at 5 on 5). Again, he won't post the exact same statline that he did in Russia; that just isn't feasible. This is a league with greater talent in all areas of the ice and it may take him some time to readjust to the NHL pace. If he proves to be a serviceable to good starter this season, he'll be a fixture in Calgary for the next few years. He won't make people forget about Kiprusoff, but the fanbase won't be calling for his head, either.
The Flames will make the playoffs if...
... everything comes together perfectly; the younger players put up nice numbers a year or two ahead of schedule, Monahan proves that he's not only NHL-ready but capable of being the 1C of the future, the offseason moves pay big dividends and Ramo has a stellar year. The Flames are definitely a team in transition right now and their playoff chances appear dim, but then again, anything can happen in this league. There are a lot of factors and variables at play for this team and come October 1st, they have just as good a chance as anyone to make the postseason because everybody starts with a 0-0-0 record.
The Flames will miss the playoffs if...
... nothing overly unexpected happens. This team is being picked to finish last in the Pacific by just about everybody this year, and it's almost by process of elimination now that the Oilers are suddenly a trendy choice to make the playoffs and the Coyotes have retooled their roster for another deep run. It's going to be fun watching the position battles play out over the course of training camp and the early part of the season. They'll even be enjoyable while the special teams are on the ice. However, this roster as it is currently constructed is not a playoff team. I expect some trades in-season to stockpile picks and prospects. Calgary is a few years away from playoff contention.
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