Take away the fact that the Lightning had the first and second highest scorers in the league last year, and their season was pretty terrible. Martin St. Louis took home the Art Ross trophy with 60 points in the shortened season (a 102.5 point pace over a full 82 games) and Steven Stamkos was not far behind, registering 57 points. This offseason, Tampa shocked its fanbase when it bought out captain Vincent Lecavalier and replaced him with... Valterri Filppula. They also allowed backup goalie Mathieu Garon and depth forward Benoit Pouliot to walk in free agency. In a new division that will prove to be much tougher than the old Southeast was, the Lightning face an uphill battle this year. The offense can keep them in games, but they can't stop anyone, either.
Projected Forward Lines:
Ryan Malone - Steven Stamkos - Martin St. Louis
Jonathan Drouin - Valterri Filppula - Teddy Purcell
Alex Killorn - Nate Thompson - Richard Panik
Tom Pyatt - Dana Tyrell - B.J. Crombeen
Tyler Johnson - Pierre-Cedric Labrie
If Drouin winds up on the top line, it'll be a scary one for opponents to face. As it stands, I like Malone there for now due to his experience. Purcell gives the Lightning another 60-point scorer that other teams will have to respect, and pairing him with a distributor like Filppula could cause a rise in goals for him. The bottom six is sort of a work in progress, but the team likes the way Killorn is progressing and so do I. Panik begins his first full season in the NHL with raised expectations, and if nothing else his name must be fun to say for broadcast teams (I really should do an all-name team for the NHL). Crombeen and Labrie provide protection for the top guys with their toughness and readiness to drop the gloves.
Projected Defensive Pairings:
Victor Hedman - Sami Salo
Matthew Carle - Radko Gudas
Eric Brewer - Keith Aulie
Andrej Sustr
I wonder if this defense will ever get better. When your "fix" to a defense that is only that in name is to bring in more offensive defensemen like Salo and Carle in recent years, you aren't going to see improvement in the stats that matter. Tampa Bay finished 26th in the NHL in goals against per game (3.06) and 20th in shots against per game (30.2), so this defense needs to make dramatic improvements this year if they're going to have a chance to be in the playoff picture. However, this is also a work in progress, and we'll probably wind up seeing the same porous "defense" we're used to seeing from Tampa Bay.
Goaltending:
Ben Bishop
Anders Lindback
Well, at least they have two goaltenders who cover a lot of net! Bishop is 6'7", and Lindback is 6'6". Lindback didn't play very well as the starter last season, prompting the trade for Bishop that sent Cory Conacher and a 4th-round pick to Ottawa. Bishop stepped in and performed nicely, so he probably has the inside track on the starting job at the time of this post. I'm guessing we're going to see a 1A and 1B situation here, but that doesn't mean you should draft either of them in fantasy. The team in front of these guys is not nearly responsible enough defensively to provide significant help. It's going to take a Herculean effort from one or both of them to get this team into the playoff chase.
Special Teams:
The Lightning finished with a respectable 19% power play success rate, good for 13th in the NHL and that might improve with Drouin in tow. Expect Salo to shoulder much of the load when it comes to being the field general out there, and with Stamkos, St. Louis, Drouin, Purcell, Malone, and Killorn likely comprising the power play units, he has scorers to feed the puck to. The Lightning were +8 on the differential last year but were not successful on the penalty kill, finishing 19th in the NHL at 80.6%. The lower percentage can easily be attributed to a general lack of defensive skill, but we'll see if it can improve.
X-Factor:
Can one of the goalies put the team on his back and steal games? That's the burning question surrounding the Lightning. We know they'll score goals. We know they'll be awful defensively. We don't know if either Bishop or Lindback are good enough to stand on their heads when called upon. If one or both can get their numbers in line with the upper-tier goalies (not even talking about Lundqvist, more like Elliott or Hiller), then I'd consider it a success. Whether that translates to wins remains to be seen.
The Lightning will make the playoffs if...
... they discover how to play defense, the top line posts outrageous scoring totals, and the goalies play like brick walls. It's going to take a lot for this team to make the playoffs. Too many teams to climb over and there's a large gap between where I believe they'll finish and the team one spot above them. They don't have the luxury of beating up on weak Southeast Division anymore (well, they can still do that to Florida) and so they're going to have to play up to the competition on most nights. For a team that looks like it's a year or two away, this is the reality.
The Lightning will miss the playoffs if...
... their level of play is the same or close to what it was last year. It really is that simple. Too many mistakes, too many shots against, too many pucks in their net. While it would be nice to see them surprise and factor into the playoff race, I don't see it happening this year. They would be better served spending time on seeing what works and shaping their roster for the future.
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