October Report Cards, Part 1

Note: Records are prior to games on November 1st.

Anaheim Ducks (10-3-1)
Grade: B+
It's nothing short of a miracle that Anaheim has notched 21 of a possible 28 points with their special teams being this bad. They cannot sustain this streak if the power play and penalty kill continue to falter. I don't care how good their other metrics are, when you don't punish teams for committing penalties and don't bail yourself out when shorthanded, you're not going to see long-term success.

Boston Bruins (8-4-0)
Grade: B+
An uncharacteristically sloppy penalty kill is the story here. Boston is getting enough goal scoring and playing stellar defense as usual, but that PK needs a boost. Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand are off to slow starts, but the slack has been picked up by David Krejci (11 assists) and Milan Lucic (12 points) thus far. They suffered a tough loss to Pittsburgh the other night but rebounded nicely in a shootout win over Anaheim.

Buffalo Sabres (2-12-1)
Grade: F
I really didn't want to give this team an F simply because this is a rebuilding year and many correctly pegged this team to be the worst in hockey, but after scanning their stats I couldn't justify giving them a better score. If the PK were in the top ten I probably would've bumped them to a D- on the grounds that they were doing something right. However, 82%, while serviceable, isn't anything to celebrate. Trading Thomas Vanek for Matt Moulson was a complete fleece job by Darcy Regier as he continues to stockpile picks.

Calgary Flames (5-5-2)
Grade: B-
Was going to give them a higher grade until I saw the defense and special teams. Make no mistake, their record is still a surprise to me (hence the probably inflated B-), but it's a far cry from their hot start in the first few games. Sean Monahan has been the catalyst for this group, though he's disappeared a bit in their last few outings. They need to get him going again. They also need to figure out the goaltending situation, because the committee so far hasn't gotten it done.

Carolina Hurricanes (4-5-3)
Grade: D+
They should thank the rest of the Metropolitan Division (sans Pittsburgh) for being so putrid this season, because somehow the 4-5-3 Hurricanes are in second place. Nobody has reached double digit points yet and only four players have a plus rating. The goaltending has quite literally been a three-ring circus, with Cam Ward and Justin Peters faltering while Anton Khudobin has been sharp. Khudobin's on IR now though, so Ward and Peters have to play better... Ward especially, since he's the starter.

Chicago Blackhawks (8-2-3)
Grade: B+
They're scoring, they're converting on the power play, and they're getting a lot of pucks to the net. Defense has been an adventure so far, though, with the NHL's worst PK not helping matters. You can only mask bad defense with good offense for so long, but if the Hawks are driving possession and applying a solid forecheck, the penalty kill numbers will come up some.

Colorado Avalanche (10-1-0)
Grade: A
This team was doing everything right until Semyon Varlamov turned himself in to police amid charges of kidnapping and domestic violence. Backup Jean-Sebastien Giguere has been great so far, so it looks like the Avs will be alright for the time being in net. Who would've thought they'd be 10-1 through the first month and that it would be the defense that got them there? The trade that brought in Max Talbot will only help them continue to be solid in their own end.

Columbus Blue Jackets (5-6-0)
Grade: C
The Blue Jackets look like a team that is just trying to stem the tide right now. They're still without Nathan Horton for the foreseeable future so they will be missing a major offensive weapon going forward, but even at 5-6 they're right in the thick of it in the Metropolitan Division, where they sit in 4th place. They have to improve the special teams and find some more scoring, but if they're above .500 when Horton comes back, look out.

Dallas Stars (5-6-1)
Grade: D+
Given the fact that the Central Division has delivered in terms of being iffy in the middle, the last-place Stars don't deserve any better of a grade. They're 1-2-1 against their division rivals thus far and that will not get it done. They've been the model of mediocrity to this point in the NHL and have to improve in all areas of the game if they want to climb up the mountain. I believe it's an issue of depth with this team, as they simply don't have enough on the wings or on defense.

Detroit Red Wings (7-4-2)
Grade: C+
Let me put it this way: this team is not trending in the right direction. The offense has not produced, they've gotten almost nothing from Stephen Weiss so far, and the special teams have been meh. Defensively, they've been good enough to have a winning record, but again the scoring isn't there. Detroit has just 20 points from its defensemen so far, led by Niklas Kronwall with eight. They need more from the backend.

Edmonton Oilers (3-9-2)
Grade: F
This team has been a complete trainwreck after such high hopes to begin the year. Taylor Hall is hurt, Nail Yakupov has been nonexistent, the defense has continued to suck as only they can, and the special teams continue to not produce. This squad is doing nothing well right now. Mark Arcobello is off to a nice start with 10 assists, but when he's tied for your team's lead in scoring, there are serious issues that need to be addressed.

Florida Panthers (3-7-2)
Grade: F
This grade is another case of me wanting to be soft on a team that everyone knew was bad preseason but being unable to justify it. The Panthers have been absolutely brutal so far. Tim Thomas has not been healthy and it's been clear that his body isn't in playing shape yet. Brad Boyes has slowed down, Jonathan Huberdeau hasn't gotten untracked yet and Shawn Matthias is struggling. They need more from their best players.

Los Angeles Kings (9-5-0)
Grade: B
They're currently sitting in fifth place in the stacked Pacific Division, but that's no reason to count the Kings out. Aside from their goal scoring, they've been solid overall. Anze Kopitar is off to a great start and the defense has both kept them in and won games. They'd like to see an increase across the board; these are not the numbers of a Stanley Cup contender. However, they don't need to be yet, that can wait until the playoffs.

Minnesota Wild (6-4-3)
Grade: B-
I can't figure this team out. They aren't scoring, but have a great power play. The defense has been stingy, but the penalty kill has been a sieve. Josh Harding has played admirably in net so far, but this team needs Nicklas Backstrom to be healthy and playing his best hockey if they're going to improve upon their success from a season ago. Also, where has Dany Heatley been? Has anyone seen him?

Montreal Canadiens (8-5-0)
Grade: B+
With the statistics that they've put up across the board, Montreal should probably have a better record than they do. They're trending in the right direction, but they need to get more pucks to the net. It's going to be tough to maintain such a low goals against average, so the more they can help out the goaltending by driving possession, the better off they'll be.

Buffalo Sabres Release New Alternate Jersey

The long-awaited Buffalo Sabres third jersey came out today, and, well... here are the pics. Source is icethetics.info:

Steve Ott doing the modeling work here. My reaction: Not a fan. Or rather, to be more specific, I'm not a fan of the front of the jersey. I think the back is actually pretty well done. It's a nice shade of navy, the font and number looks cool (silver is a good choice for the numbers), and I actually don't hate the yellow sleeve/underarm/sides on the back, and I'm usually against going with different colors under the arms. However, the front is pretty terrible, so I can't give it my blessing overall. I dislike the "BUFFALO" going across it, the two-tone yellow is a bit awkward, and so is the yoke extending past the collar. Kudos to the Sabres for going outside the box, though.

What do you think?

30 Teams, 30 Days - Buffalo Sabres

Last season was an overall struggle for the Buffalo Sabres. Finishing in the bottom third of the NHL in scoring, defense, power play, and penalty kill, it's fair to say that they were a bad team in 2012-13. The Sabres were quiet this offseason, opting to make small changes to their roster. They traded Andrej Sekera to Carolina for Jamie McBain and a second round pick, which became centerman J.T. Compher. Scouts say he's a leader on the ice and has solid playmaking ability, but won't fill the net himself. It is unlikely that he'll be a factor this season, but keep an eye out down the road. Buffalo also signed defenseman Henrik Tallinder, who played for New Jersey last year. This looks like it's going to be a transition year for the Sabres, but we're also going to get a look at what the future of this franchise brings to the table.

Projected Forward Lines:

Thomas Vanek - Cody Hodgson - Drew Stafford
Tyler Ennis - Mikhail Grigorenko - Ville Leino
Marcus Foligno - Johan Larsson - Steve Ott
Patrick Kaleta - Kevin Porter - Brian Flynn
John Scott - Cody McCormick

The theme in Buffalo this year is youth down the middle. The four centers listed as being in the lineup have a combined 359 games between them, with Grigorenko and Larsson combining for just 26 of those games. Their experience on the wings is considerably better, and it behooves the Sabres' pivots to make smart decisions with the puck when they have it. Buffalo has wingers who can score, but that task will go incomplete unless the largely unproven centers can mesh with their linemates and make plays. There will no doubt be growing pains with this bunch, but all the same the scoring must improve; Scoring less than 2.5 goals per game isn't going to get it done this season. Steve Ott needs to be more of a factor as well. He agitates, draws penalties, takes a lot of penalties, and plays a good power game, but he needs to get back to the scoring form he showed in Dallas. He scored a career-high 22 goals in 2009-10 but hasn't come close to that number since. If he manages to stay on the ice more often this season, it could happen for him. The obvious drawback to having so many young players, of course, is that they can be mistake-prone. Keeping the turnovers down will be key for Buffalo.

Projected Defensive Pairings:

Christian Ehrhoff - Jamie McBain
Tyler Myers - Henrik Tallinder
Mike Weber - Alexander Sulzer
Mark Pysyk

Buffalo has opted to go a bit more offensive this year on the backend. The Sekera-McBain trade will no doubt improve the offensive potential of this group (Sekera has never scored more than four goals in a season), and Henrik Tallinder adds size to an already big blue line. Weber and Sulzer make up the third pair, and if nothing else the duo will be balanced. Weber stays at home, and Sulzer is a puck mover. He should see significant power play time for the Sabres and could see greatly improved offensive numbers by season's end. Overall, the defense should be more of a risk-reward group, but they'll also be more fun to watch. With a veteran-laden core and three players who are in contract years, effort should not be a question in Buffalo. Expect a blue collar performance from the defense night in, and night out.

Goaltending:

Ryan Miller
Jhonas Enroth

Exactly how long will Miller remain in Buffalo? His contract is up after this season and one would have to believe that he won't be back in a Sabres uniform in 2014-15. The question is, how long will GM Darcy Regier wait to deal him? Even if the Sabres surprise and are in contention this season, does he trade Miller anyway to try and get something back for him? Starting goalies rarely get traded at the deadline, so it would have to be to a team that might be in the thick of the playoff race but needs help in net. I'm thinking Philadelphia, Winnipeg, or even the Islanders. Jhonas Enroth is a capable backup who should see at least 20 games, and if Miller gets traded that number will rise over 30 and perhaps 35. If Miller sticks around the whole season, expect another solid year where he outperforms the team playing in front of him. If he doesn't, the team is in the hands of Enroth, and you can do a lot worse than having him as your backup.

Special Teams:

Buffalo was dreadful on both the power play and penalty kill last season, finishing 29th with the man advantage and 26th while a man down. It goes without saying that both of those figures need to improve for this team to have more success. Adding McBain gives them another puck mover who can run the power play, and the forward group has enough size to cause traffic jams in front of the net and win loose pucks. This is a power play unit that should be better than it is, but it just hasn't clicked for them yet. Playing in the Northeast Division last season, they saw talented goalies often in Carey Price, Tuukka Rask, Craig Anderson, and James Reimer. If the top six plays more consistently, the man advantage should be better. As for the PK, it's definitely a work in progress. Steve Ott is their best penalty killer, when he isn't in the box himself. The Tallinder signing gives them another responsible defenseman who should be a factor on the kill. The Sabres are not a very fast team, so they're going to have to survive by maintaining proper positioning and not taking too many chances when shorthanded. Drawing more penalties will help, as they were -15 in special teams chances last year.

X-Factor:

The biggest X-Factor on this team is the development of Grigorenko. He had five points in 25 games last year and will now be slotted in a top-six role. He has to essentially learn on the job because quite frankly, Buffalo has no better options. He will benefit from playing alongside Tyler Ennis, who has been productive for the Sabres even though his numbers have taken a dip the last couple of years. On the other side is Ville Leino, who has a long list of prior injuries and does not play a physical game. It all adds up to Buffalo having a soft second line, which could mean poor possession numbers. Grigorenko needs to be on the top line to have the greatest chance of success, but until he proves he can be the 1C for this group he's going to be behind Hodgson on the depth chart.

The Sabres will make the playoffs if...

... Ryan Miller turns in a Vezina-winning season, somebody else up front has a breakout season to take pressure off of Vanek, and they finish near the top of the league in puck possession. This is not a team that will win 5-4, and instead they'll want to grind out 2-1 wins. Dump and chase, slow the pace of the game down, and do just enough offensively to get two points every night. In addition to all the tough teams that the Sabres already see a lot of, now Detroit is in their division too. It's going to look like David against Goliath out on the ice on some nights, but this group just might have enough rocks to make some noise. The best players need to be the best players on a nightly basis and they have to find secondary scoring; these are the two biggest keys to Buffalo's chances.

The Sabres will miss the playoffs if...

... this team continues to play like it's on the rebuild, which is to be expected because that's exactly what they're doing. Buffalo allowed 33.5 shots on goal per game last year (they also blocked about 15 per game), which was the most in the NHL. It's attributed to mistakes, poor positioning, and an inability to maintain possession. Averaging 8 giveaways per game is too many. Miller, who is in a contract year and probably an audition for contending teams, has to be much better. The defense has to be better as well. Getting outshot so badly indicates that the Sabres were not very good in the neutral zone and they also were ineffective at clearing their defensive zone, whether by flipping it out, passing, or skating it clear. Finally, the forwards have to convert chances when they come. Buffalo only had four players who scored above a 50-point pace last season. I'm not sure we can expect Vanek to put up 88 points this year, which is what he projected to over an 82-game schedule, so the other guys who produced (Hodgson, Ennis, and Stafford) need to be either the same or better than they were last year to make up that difference.