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Showing posts with label Ducks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ducks. Show all posts

Saturday, November 2, 2013

October Report Cards, Part 1



Note: Records are prior to games on November 1st.

Anaheim Ducks (10-3-1)
Grade: B+
It's nothing short of a miracle that Anaheim has notched 21 of a possible 28 points with their special teams being this bad. They cannot sustain this streak if the power play and penalty kill continue to falter. I don't care how good their other metrics are, when you don't punish teams for committing penalties and don't bail yourself out when shorthanded, you're not going to see long-term success.

Boston Bruins (8-4-0)
Grade: B+
An uncharacteristically sloppy penalty kill is the story here. Boston is getting enough goal scoring and playing stellar defense as usual, but that PK needs a boost. Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand are off to slow starts, but the slack has been picked up by David Krejci (11 assists) and Milan Lucic (12 points) thus far. They suffered a tough loss to Pittsburgh the other night but rebounded nicely in a shootout win over Anaheim.

Buffalo Sabres (2-12-1)
Grade: F
I really didn't want to give this team an F simply because this is a rebuilding year and many correctly pegged this team to be the worst in hockey, but after scanning their stats I couldn't justify giving them a better score. If the PK were in the top ten I probably would've bumped them to a D- on the grounds that they were doing something right. However, 82%, while serviceable, isn't anything to celebrate. Trading Thomas Vanek for Matt Moulson was a complete fleece job by Darcy Regier as he continues to stockpile picks.

Calgary Flames (5-5-2)
Grade: B-
Was going to give them a higher grade until I saw the defense and special teams. Make no mistake, their record is still a surprise to me (hence the probably inflated B-), but it's a far cry from their hot start in the first few games. Sean Monahan has been the catalyst for this group, though he's disappeared a bit in their last few outings. They need to get him going again. They also need to figure out the goaltending situation, because the committee so far hasn't gotten it done.

Carolina Hurricanes (4-5-3)
Grade: D+
They should thank the rest of the Metropolitan Division (sans Pittsburgh) for being so putrid this season, because somehow the 4-5-3 Hurricanes are in second place. Nobody has reached double digit points yet and only four players have a plus rating. The goaltending has quite literally been a three-ring circus, with Cam Ward and Justin Peters faltering while Anton Khudobin has been sharp. Khudobin's on IR now though, so Ward and Peters have to play better... Ward especially, since he's the starter.

Chicago Blackhawks (8-2-3)
Grade: B+
They're scoring, they're converting on the power play, and they're getting a lot of pucks to the net. Defense has been an adventure so far, though, with the NHL's worst PK not helping matters. You can only mask bad defense with good offense for so long, but if the Hawks are driving possession and applying a solid forecheck, the penalty kill numbers will come up some.

Colorado Avalanche (10-1-0)
Grade: A
This team was doing everything right until Semyon Varlamov turned himself in to police amid charges of kidnapping and domestic violence. Backup Jean-Sebastien Giguere has been great so far, so it looks like the Avs will be alright for the time being in net. Who would've thought they'd be 10-1 through the first month and that it would be the defense that got them there? The trade that brought in Max Talbot will only help them continue to be solid in their own end.

Columbus Blue Jackets (5-6-0)
Grade: C
The Blue Jackets look like a team that is just trying to stem the tide right now. They're still without Nathan Horton for the foreseeable future so they will be missing a major offensive weapon going forward, but even at 5-6 they're right in the thick of it in the Metropolitan Division, where they sit in 4th place. They have to improve the special teams and find some more scoring, but if they're above .500 when Horton comes back, look out.

Dallas Stars (5-6-1)
Grade: D+
Given the fact that the Central Division has delivered in terms of being iffy in the middle, the last-place Stars don't deserve any better of a grade. They're 1-2-1 against their division rivals thus far and that will not get it done. They've been the model of mediocrity to this point in the NHL and have to improve in all areas of the game if they want to climb up the mountain. I believe it's an issue of depth with this team, as they simply don't have enough on the wings or on defense.

Detroit Red Wings (7-4-2)
Grade: C+
Let me put it this way: this team is not trending in the right direction. The offense has not produced, they've gotten almost nothing from Stephen Weiss so far, and the special teams have been meh. Defensively, they've been good enough to have a winning record, but again the scoring isn't there. Detroit has just 20 points from its defensemen so far, led by Niklas Kronwall with eight. They need more from the backend.

Edmonton Oilers (3-9-2)
Grade: F
This team has been a complete trainwreck after such high hopes to begin the year. Taylor Hall is hurt, Nail Yakupov has been nonexistent, the defense has continued to suck as only they can, and the special teams continue to not produce. This squad is doing nothing well right now. Mark Arcobello is off to a nice start with 10 assists, but when he's tied for your team's lead in scoring, there are serious issues that need to be addressed.

Florida Panthers (3-7-2)
Grade: F
This grade is another case of me wanting to be soft on a team that everyone knew was bad preseason but being unable to justify it. The Panthers have been absolutely brutal so far. Tim Thomas has not been healthy and it's been clear that his body isn't in playing shape yet. Brad Boyes has slowed down, Jonathan Huberdeau hasn't gotten untracked yet and Shawn Matthias is struggling. They need more from their best players.

Los Angeles Kings (9-5-0)
Grade: B
They're currently sitting in fifth place in the stacked Pacific Division, but that's no reason to count the Kings out. Aside from their goal scoring, they've been solid overall. Anze Kopitar is off to a great start and the defense has both kept them in and won games. They'd like to see an increase across the board; these are not the numbers of a Stanley Cup contender. However, they don't need to be yet, that can wait until the playoffs.

Minnesota Wild (6-4-3)
Grade: B-
I can't figure this team out. They aren't scoring, but have a great power play. The defense has been stingy, but the penalty kill has been a sieve. Josh Harding has played admirably in net so far, but this team needs Nicklas Backstrom to be healthy and playing his best hockey if they're going to improve upon their success from a season ago. Also, where has Dany Heatley been? Has anyone seen him?

Montreal Canadiens (8-5-0)
Grade: B+
With the statistics that they've put up across the board, Montreal should probably have a better record than they do. They're trending in the right direction, but they need to get more pucks to the net. It's going to be tough to maintain such a low goals against average, so the more they can help out the goaltending by driving possession, the better off they'll be.

Sunday, September 1, 2013

30 Teams, 30 Days - Anaheim Ducks








Welcome to the very first installment of PFS's "30 Teams, 30 Days" tour. We're going to count down the days until the start of the regular season by bringing you an in-depth preview of each and every team in the NHL. To kick things off, we're taking a look at the Anaheim Ducks.

The Ducks had a fairly busy offseason, and they were part of a bombshell trade that sent Bobby Ryan to Ottawa in exchange for Jakob Silfverberg, Stefan Noesen, and a first-round pick. They also signed Mark Fistric to a one-year deal worth $900K in order to add depth to their sometimes erratic defense corps. Toni Lydman retired, Sheldon Souray is probably going to be out until January with a torn ligament in his wrist, and there aren't many other NHL-proven players on the backend, so getting Fistric may prove to be more beneficial than people think. The Ducks also brought Dustin Penner back, one of the pieces that won them a Cup in 2007. This new recipe for success hopes to build upon what was a fantastic regular season for the franchise, but also a first-round flameout.

And of course, the 800 pound gorilla in Southern California remains the fact that Teemu Selanne has not given the team a decision on whether he'll be back this upcoming season. It has long been speculated that Selanne will either come back to the Ducks or retire, and I believe that he is leaning towards coming back this year. He can still help this team; even though he turned 43 last month, he's two years removed from a 66-point campaign in 2011-12. There is still offense, and more importantly, mentoring left in him. With a young group that has now tasted the playoffs behind the top line, the usually boom-or-bust Ducks look to be more steady in 2013-14.

Projected Forward Lines:

Dustin Penner - Ryan Getzlaf - Corey Perry
Jakob Silfverberg - Nick Bonino - Teemu Selanne
Daniel Winnik - Saku Koivu - Andrew Cogliano
Emerson Etem - Peter Holland - Kyle Palmieri
Patrick Maroon - Matt Beleskey

I have a feeling that these lines are going to be moved around a bunch by Bruce Boudreau and his staff this season. Dustin Penner will have the first crack at getting top line minutes with Getzlaf and Perry, but the hands of time won't be turning back to 2006-07 this time around. I think Penner begins the season on the top line but as the kids develop he'll drop down the depth chart. Anaheim brings a good mix of speed and skill along with enough veterans who know how to win. If there were an All-Star Game this year, Emerson Etem would probably be my early favorite to win the fastest skater contest at the skills challenge. He's definitely a player to watch this season, though he may begin the year playing in the AHL with Norfolk. Nick Bonino will step into a bigger role in the top six, and I think he'll flourish as the #2 centerman. As always in Anaheim, scoring depth is a question - especially now that Bobby Ryan is gone. Size and toughness on the depth lines is another significant issue with Anaheim up front. They lack an enforcer and they are also thin on guys who get into the dirty areas and win battles consistently. One thing is for sure, though; it will be up to the young blood on the Ducks' roster to step up (or in Silfverberg's case, step in) and be consistent contributors. Their season will ultimately depend on it.

Projected Defensive Pairings:

Sheldon Souray - Francois Beauchemin
Cam Fowler - Ben Lovejoy
Luca Sbisa - Bryan Allen
Mark Fistric

Note: Since Souray might miss half the regular season, Fistric will likely start over Sami Vatanen for his experience. Vatanen should be in the lineup by the end of the season, though.

If you watched the Ducks at all last season, you'd probably agree with my sentiment that Francois Beauchemin should have been nominated for the Norris Trophy. He was brilliant in his own zone and led the backend in scoring with 24 points (good enough to tie him for 20th in the NHL among blueliners). I'm of the belief that the Norris should be given to the best all-around defenseman, and you could make the argument for Beauchemin being that man. This is not to say that Erik Karlsson didn't deserve it in 2011-12; he absolutely did, but that's another debate for another day. Anyway, Souray might be out until January, so his power play prowess and booming slapper will need to be replaced by somebody on the depth chart. Fowler will be first in line, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Ducks turn to Sami Vatanen. He came up late in the season last year and scored twice in eight games. Oh, and don't sleep on this kid's shot, either (see below). My biggest question with the Ducks' defense is speed. Having a slow backend can oftentimes be made up for by playing a sound positional game, though, and that's something that the Ducks do well. As long as this group limits the turnovers and stays out of the penalty box, they should be adequate.



Goaltending:

Jonas Hiller
Viktor Fasth

The immediate question that pops up when looking at Anaheim's goalie situation is "how secure is Jonas Hiller's job?" Hiller appeared in 26 of Anaheim's 48 games a season ago, as well as starting every playoff game for the Ducks. Hiller's health has been a concern for the last few years, as he has suffered through vertigo and battled lower body injuries last season. I don't think we're going to see anything like what St. Louis has done with its netminders, but I expect Viktor Fasth to see about 25 games this season, between spelling Hiller and the chance that he'll be forced in due to an injury to Hiller. The Ducks' defense did a pretty good job keeping pucks away from the net, finishing 9th in the NHL in shots against, but Hiller and Fasth will need to stop more of them, as the Ducks were 14th in save percentage.

Special Teams:

Anaheim was lethal on the power play a season ago, finishing 4th as they converted 21.5% of man advantage chances last year. Losing Souray is going to cause that number to drop, unless of course somebody else steps up and replaces him. Again, Fowler will have the first crack on the top unit, with Lovejoy and Sbisa helping out as well. If I'm Anaheim, I'm taking Beauchemin off of the power play when Souray returns, as they need to keep him fresh for late-game minutes. With Ryan gone, there will be a battle to see who replaces him on the top unit. I think it will be either Silfverberg or Bonino; probably Bonino to balance the two lines with snipers. A second unit consisting of Silfverberg, Penner, and Koivu has to sound good to Ducks fans. Penner could also be swapped out for Palmieri if more shooting ability is desired. The key is going to be getting more chances. Anaheim was second to last in the NHL with just 135 opportunities, an average of 2.81 per game. On the penalty kill, the Ducks tied for 13th in the league with an 81.5% kill rate. They did better at staying out of the box than they have in the past, but they were still -27 in special teams opportunities. The PK has a chance to be nasty this year, as there are a number of players who can fill spots when the Ducks are a man down. I don't think it will be PK-by-committee in Anaheim, but the Ducks do have options to keep their players from tiring.

X-Factor:

It may be a bit unfair to call such a young player the "X-Factor" for a team with Stanley Cup aspirations, but Jakob Silfverberg is going to be that guy. Out of everyone on this roster, he will have the biggest burden to bear in terms of replacing Bobby Ryan, and not just because he was the major piece that came to Anaheim in the trade. In terms of talent and upside, Silfverberg could potentially become the Ducks' biggest offensive threat; and he might have to be, since there isn't much proven depth behind Getzlaf and Perry. The Ducks need him to produce immediately to kick start their offense.

The Ducks will make the playoffs if...

... the young guys take their elevated roles by the horns and become point producers for this team. They have to find a way to replace Bobby Ryan's production (62.7 points per 82 games over the course of his career thus far), especially Silfverberg, who needs to have at least a 50-point season to warrant top line minutes. They will also need a breakout performance from Bonino. He was impressive in the playoffs last year, scoring three goals and adding an assist in seven games. One strength that the Ducks have is their loaded farm system that appears ready to make in impact in 2013-14. It will allow them to be aggressive when making trades and it gives them options for replacements if certain players aren't producing. The other benefit to having so many young and promising players is that a few of them will stick; it's highly unlikely that all of these guys will be unproductive this year.

The Ducks will miss the playoffs if...

... they can't find secondary scoring, there are more injuries to Hiller and on the blue line, or worse yet, both. Look, it's no secret that Getzlaf and Perry are easily the two best players on the team right now. Other coaches around the league will look to stop them and as a result, they are going to play a lot of minutes against shutdown opponents. Anaheim needs to find some scoring depth, and the sooner the better. Hiller needs to stay healthy this season. This is not to say that Fasth is incapable of filling the starter role if needed; he proved that he can do it last season, going 15-6-2 with a 2.18 GAA and .921 save percentage. It speaks to the fact that the Ducks' options in net after Fasth are unproven and not ready to compete at the NHL level. The defensemen must avoid the injury bug as well. With Souray out and Toni Lydman retired, the Ducks are already pretty thin on the blue line. An injury to Beauchemin or Fowler could be this team's undoing. Sami Vatanen appears to be close, but after him the next best option is Hampus Lindholm, who has never played an NHL game and only a half season in the AHL.

Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Off-Season Update












Here is a list of recent Offseason signings and some thoughts on each of them.

-  Dustin Penner has returned to the Anahiem Ducks with a 1 year deal worth 2 Million. I feel that this was a good signing for the Ducks as they added a top 6 forward with good size at 6'4" and 240 lbs. In the shorten season, he had 14 points in 33 games but he was mostly on the 3rd line and the 2nd Power Play unit for the Kings. I feel that with the Ducks, he could be on the 1st or 2nd line and we could see about 45-60 points this upcoming season. He was with the Ducks when they won the cup in 06-07 and he will fit in nicely on either the top line line Getzlaf and Perry or the second line with Selanne (still an UFA).

-  Detroit has resigned Brendan Smith to a 2 year deal worth 2.525 million per year. Brendan Smith was the 1st round pick of the Red Wings in 2007 and is a top 4 defenceman for the Wings. I feel that the Wings gave a little bit too much money for the young Dman but at 24 and only 2 years of NHL experience, he still has a lot of potential to be solid on the blue-line.

-  Islanders resign Josh Bailey to a 5 year deal worth 16.5 million. I feel that this is a great signing for the Islanders. Bailey, 9th overall in the 2008 draft, is only 23 and has become a solid 2nd line center for the Islanders.  He plays on both the PK and the PP and was an important piece in the Islanders reaching the playoffs. In the shorten season, he was able to accumulate 19 points in 38 games and I can see him getting around 40-50 points in a full season.

- Alec Martinez has been resigned by the Los Angeles Kings to a 2 year deal. Terms have not been released yet. Since the terms of the deal has not been released, it's a bit difficult to put a full review on this signing. That being said, I feel the Kings have resigned an important part of their team. Martinez is a 3rd line defenceman on a team that is build around Drew Doughty. Based on his first deal, I feel that the terms of the deal will be about 1.3 million or so. If it is, I feel that the Kings were able to re-sign a key part of their defensive unit.

- Jacob Markstrom signs a 2 year deal with Panthers. Terms have yet to be released. Markstrom is the future goalie of the Florida Panthers but its taking a bit longer than thought. He plays for a rebuilding Panthers team that will be better with the addition of 2nd overall Aleksander Barkov. I feel that Markstrom will be a solid starting goalie but he is only 23 and the Panthers will still be at the bottom of the Eastern Conference for a few more years.