October Report Cards, Part 1

Note: Records are prior to games on November 1st.

Anaheim Ducks (10-3-1)
Grade: B+
It's nothing short of a miracle that Anaheim has notched 21 of a possible 28 points with their special teams being this bad. They cannot sustain this streak if the power play and penalty kill continue to falter. I don't care how good their other metrics are, when you don't punish teams for committing penalties and don't bail yourself out when shorthanded, you're not going to see long-term success.

Boston Bruins (8-4-0)
Grade: B+
An uncharacteristically sloppy penalty kill is the story here. Boston is getting enough goal scoring and playing stellar defense as usual, but that PK needs a boost. Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand are off to slow starts, but the slack has been picked up by David Krejci (11 assists) and Milan Lucic (12 points) thus far. They suffered a tough loss to Pittsburgh the other night but rebounded nicely in a shootout win over Anaheim.

Buffalo Sabres (2-12-1)
Grade: F
I really didn't want to give this team an F simply because this is a rebuilding year and many correctly pegged this team to be the worst in hockey, but after scanning their stats I couldn't justify giving them a better score. If the PK were in the top ten I probably would've bumped them to a D- on the grounds that they were doing something right. However, 82%, while serviceable, isn't anything to celebrate. Trading Thomas Vanek for Matt Moulson was a complete fleece job by Darcy Regier as he continues to stockpile picks.

Calgary Flames (5-5-2)
Grade: B-
Was going to give them a higher grade until I saw the defense and special teams. Make no mistake, their record is still a surprise to me (hence the probably inflated B-), but it's a far cry from their hot start in the first few games. Sean Monahan has been the catalyst for this group, though he's disappeared a bit in their last few outings. They need to get him going again. They also need to figure out the goaltending situation, because the committee so far hasn't gotten it done.

Carolina Hurricanes (4-5-3)
Grade: D+
They should thank the rest of the Metropolitan Division (sans Pittsburgh) for being so putrid this season, because somehow the 4-5-3 Hurricanes are in second place. Nobody has reached double digit points yet and only four players have a plus rating. The goaltending has quite literally been a three-ring circus, with Cam Ward and Justin Peters faltering while Anton Khudobin has been sharp. Khudobin's on IR now though, so Ward and Peters have to play better... Ward especially, since he's the starter.

Chicago Blackhawks (8-2-3)
Grade: B+
They're scoring, they're converting on the power play, and they're getting a lot of pucks to the net. Defense has been an adventure so far, though, with the NHL's worst PK not helping matters. You can only mask bad defense with good offense for so long, but if the Hawks are driving possession and applying a solid forecheck, the penalty kill numbers will come up some.

Colorado Avalanche (10-1-0)
Grade: A
This team was doing everything right until Semyon Varlamov turned himself in to police amid charges of kidnapping and domestic violence. Backup Jean-Sebastien Giguere has been great so far, so it looks like the Avs will be alright for the time being in net. Who would've thought they'd be 10-1 through the first month and that it would be the defense that got them there? The trade that brought in Max Talbot will only help them continue to be solid in their own end.

Columbus Blue Jackets (5-6-0)
Grade: C
The Blue Jackets look like a team that is just trying to stem the tide right now. They're still without Nathan Horton for the foreseeable future so they will be missing a major offensive weapon going forward, but even at 5-6 they're right in the thick of it in the Metropolitan Division, where they sit in 4th place. They have to improve the special teams and find some more scoring, but if they're above .500 when Horton comes back, look out.

Dallas Stars (5-6-1)
Grade: D+
Given the fact that the Central Division has delivered in terms of being iffy in the middle, the last-place Stars don't deserve any better of a grade. They're 1-2-1 against their division rivals thus far and that will not get it done. They've been the model of mediocrity to this point in the NHL and have to improve in all areas of the game if they want to climb up the mountain. I believe it's an issue of depth with this team, as they simply don't have enough on the wings or on defense.

Detroit Red Wings (7-4-2)
Grade: C+
Let me put it this way: this team is not trending in the right direction. The offense has not produced, they've gotten almost nothing from Stephen Weiss so far, and the special teams have been meh. Defensively, they've been good enough to have a winning record, but again the scoring isn't there. Detroit has just 20 points from its defensemen so far, led by Niklas Kronwall with eight. They need more from the backend.

Edmonton Oilers (3-9-2)
Grade: F
This team has been a complete trainwreck after such high hopes to begin the year. Taylor Hall is hurt, Nail Yakupov has been nonexistent, the defense has continued to suck as only they can, and the special teams continue to not produce. This squad is doing nothing well right now. Mark Arcobello is off to a nice start with 10 assists, but when he's tied for your team's lead in scoring, there are serious issues that need to be addressed.

Florida Panthers (3-7-2)
Grade: F
This grade is another case of me wanting to be soft on a team that everyone knew was bad preseason but being unable to justify it. The Panthers have been absolutely brutal so far. Tim Thomas has not been healthy and it's been clear that his body isn't in playing shape yet. Brad Boyes has slowed down, Jonathan Huberdeau hasn't gotten untracked yet and Shawn Matthias is struggling. They need more from their best players.

Los Angeles Kings (9-5-0)
Grade: B
They're currently sitting in fifth place in the stacked Pacific Division, but that's no reason to count the Kings out. Aside from their goal scoring, they've been solid overall. Anze Kopitar is off to a great start and the defense has both kept them in and won games. They'd like to see an increase across the board; these are not the numbers of a Stanley Cup contender. However, they don't need to be yet, that can wait until the playoffs.

Minnesota Wild (6-4-3)
Grade: B-
I can't figure this team out. They aren't scoring, but have a great power play. The defense has been stingy, but the penalty kill has been a sieve. Josh Harding has played admirably in net so far, but this team needs Nicklas Backstrom to be healthy and playing his best hockey if they're going to improve upon their success from a season ago. Also, where has Dany Heatley been? Has anyone seen him?

Montreal Canadiens (8-5-0)
Grade: B+
With the statistics that they've put up across the board, Montreal should probably have a better record than they do. They're trending in the right direction, but they need to get more pucks to the net. It's going to be tough to maintain such a low goals against average, so the more they can help out the goaltending by driving possession, the better off they'll be.

Parting Shots - Week 1

Every week, I'm going to bring you my thoughts and observations from the NHL action. I can't commit to a set number per week (though I'm going to aim for at least five), but I will say that quality over quantity will be the order of the day.

Without further ado, here's what I noticed this week:

- Going to start off with the big story today, the Flyers firing head coach Peter Laviolette and replacing him, at least on the interim, with assistant coach Craig Berube. The Flyers have stumbled out of the gate to an 0-3-0 start and have played poorly in doing so. They dropped their home opener to Toronto, then getting shelled at Montreal and last night losing to a rebuilding Carolina team. They have been outscored 9-3 in their outings this season and have been unable to sustain offensive pressure. The Flyers did hold the Hurricanes to two goals last night, but Carolina pretty much did whatever they wanted, outshooting Philadelphia 34-18 in the win. Neither Steve Mason nor Ray Emery has impressed in net so far, though there are still 79 games to go for the Flyers. Perhaps the coaching change is what they need to get fired up, we'll see tomorrow night when they host Florida.

- Two surprises in the Western Conference in the first week, with Colorado and Calgary getting through without a regulation loss. The Avs have looked impressive so far, spanking Anaheim and then playing a sound fundamental game in their win against Nashville. Both tilts were at home, so I can't be too sure until I've seen them play a good team on the road. The Flames are arguably the bigger surprise, picking up four points and sitting in a four-way tie for first in the Pacific Division. They went on the road and beat Columbus in a good game, and their two losses have come against Washington and Vancouver by way of shootout and overtime, respectively. The troubling situation with the Flames, however, is that they have not been able to hold leads. They blew a 3-0 lead against the Caps and a 3-1 lead against the Canucks, but luckily were still able to salvage a point from each.

- I know that Toronto's 3-0-0 start probably isn't what everyone expected considering the teams they beat (Montreal, Philadelphia, Ottawa), but I'm here to tell you that you shouldn't be surprised; this is a good hockey team. They've had the right mixture of scoring, toughness, and timely goaltending thus far and I have to think that it'll only improve once David Clarkson returns from his suspension. Mark Fraser is going to be out for a while with a knee injury and now we should see the NHL debut of Morgan Rielly. I'm interested to see how he fits into the dynamic of this team and what skills he brings to the table.

- I feel like I'm the only one who looks at the Oilers' 0-2-0 start, in which they've allowed 11 goals, and says "par for the course." I didn't jump on the bandwagon before the season started, and I haven't been given a reason to change my mind yet. Quick, who leads Edmonton in goals? If you guessed Boyd Gordon, you're correct, and you've either watched their first two games or you're a hell of a guesser. Gordon's a good player, don't get me wrong, but he isn't a goal scorer. He's a third or fourth line center who provides tough minutes, excellent faceoff skills, and shot blocking. Having him lead your team in goals is not a sustainable system. It's also a problem when your fourth line is the only one with a +/- above zero. Edmonton has continued to be terrible defensively (against Winnipeg and the John Tortorella-led Canucks, no less) and they're going to make their home at the bottom of the standings until that changes.

- Has any team looked more impressive than the St. Louis Blues so far? I say no. They chased Pekka Rinne in the opener against Nashville with three first period goals en route to a 4-2 win, and then shellacked the Panthers 7-0. Everyone is doing their part for the Blues. The forwards are driving possession, they're getting contributions from the backend on the scoresheet, and Jaroslav Halak has been solid in net. I think the key for St. Louis is that no one player is carrying the group; this is a team effort, through and through. Just look at the stats that the Blues' players have put up in their first two games. They're also 3-for-8 on the man advantage so far and their penalty kill has been perfect.

- I'd be remiss if I didn't include some notes from the Pucks for Schmucks fantasy league. We here at PfS are proud to say that the two writers on this blog won this past week, and we went 1-2 in points as well. I wasn't very happy with the team I got at the draft (which I missed because I was at work), but thanks to strong play on the waiver wire I've constructed a roster that I feel much more confident in. George's team got a big week from Marc-Andre Fleury, who has allowed only one goal so far for the Penguins. You can view our league here.

30 Teams, 30 Days - Edmonton Oilers

The rebuilding project has been going on for what seems like forever now in Edmonton, who hasn't made the playoffs since their run to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2006. Their seven year drought is the longest in the NHL, and with the new Pacific Division comes difficult opponents on a nightly basis. Seeing more of the Kings, Sharks, Ducks, and Coyotes isn't good for your playoff hopes when you don't have much of a defense. Not all is bad for the Oilers, who have a top six that can compete with anyone and a decent netminder in Devan Dubnyk. I think this season will be a good litmus test of where this team is and what we can expect them to be like in 2-3 years.

Projected Forward Lines:

Taylor Hall - Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - Jordan Eberle
David Perron - Sam Gagner - Nail Yakupov
Ryan Smyth - Boyd Gordon - Ales Hemsky
Ryan Jones - Anton Lander - Jesse Joensuu
Mike Brown - Andrew Miller

Look at all that talent and goal scoring stacked up front. RNH will be out for roughly the first 15 games, possibly more if his recovery from a torn labrum is slow. That's why I predicted the Oilers will carry 14 forwards and 7 defensemen instead of 13 and 8. They'll have to look to the farm system early on to find another center to fill the void. Gagner will move up to the 1C spot in RNH's absence. The Oilers play in Rexall Place, home to the fastest ice in the NHL (fun fact: it's also the only "upside down" rink in the NHL, where the benches are on the bottom of the screen for broadcasts instead of the top), and the great ice has benefited their skaters tremendously over the years. This is a top-heavy group that will score a ton of goals, but are they good enough on the other end of the ice to keep the puck out of their own net? I don't think so. They're just not responsible enough defensively yet. Bringing in Gordon will help them win faceoffs and the trade for Perron gives them even more speed (as if they needed it), so yet again the forward group in Edmonton will be fun to watch.

Projected Defensive Pairings:

Jeff Petry - Ladislav Smid
Justin Schultz - Andrew Ference
Nick Schultz - Denis Grebeshkov
Philip Larsen

To say that this team is "zero defense" probably isn't fair to them, but this is about as non-defensive as a blueline can be. Recognizing this, the front office went out and signed Ference, who has spent the last seven years in Boston. He's still pretty good, but he's up there in age and hasn't had the easiest time staying healthy. Last year was just the second time in his career that he appeared in every game. As far as improving the defense goes, it's difficult to do that when your top nine ties up $38.4 million out of the $64.3 cap and your top three defensemen account for a little less than $11 million. Add in the fourth liners ($3.3 million total), Ference ($3.25 million) and Dubnyk ($3.5 million), and you have a cash-strapped franchise that really hasn't been smart about its money. Allowing 2.73 goals per game isn't going to get it done this year. You can't start an offensive rush if you can't get the puck out of your own end, and that's the biggest thing this unit has to improve on.

Goaltending:

Devan Dubnyk
Jason LaBarbera

Continuing the lack of defensiveness theme, Dubnyk saw almost 30 shots per game last season. It got worse when former backup Nikolai Khabibulin was in net, because the Oilers averaged 32.8 shots against a year ago, which was the second highest total in the NHL. His .920 save percentage in 2012-13 is a good number, but due to all the rubber he faced it came at the expense of a 2.57 GAA. Look at the other goalies in this division: Jonas Hiller, Jonathan Quick, Mike Smith, Antti Niemi, Roberto Luongo, and Karri Ramo. The jury's out on Ramo until we see him perform this year, so is there anyone else on this list who you could say that Dubnyk is going to outperform? I'd like to see him on a team that plays good defense, like Detroit, St. Louis, or Columbus. He's never going to put up impressive numbers in Edmonton. Not the way this team is currently constructed.

Special Teams:

At 20.1%, the Oilers were tied for the 7th-best power play in the NHL last year. It's easy to see why, with all the offense they have. It's feasible that their success rate climbs this year, because of the addition of Perron to the mix. The biggest question mark of the early season will be who centers the second unit. Gordon could suffice in that role, though I'm sure the Oilers would love to save him for penalty kills due to his faceoff and shot blocking prowess (see below for the latter). Amazingly, they were 9th on the penalty kill as well. It's uncommon that a team finishes in the top ten in both PP and PK and winds up missing the playoffs, but the Oilers are not a good 5 on 5 team. Discipline was a bit of an issue too, as they were -6 on the special teams differential.

X-Factor:

The obvious choice here is the health of Nugent-Hopkins. As stated earlier, he's out until at least the beginning of November while recovering from his torn labrum. If he comes back and regains his scoring touch (I know he prefers to set up his teammates, but he only had 4 goals in 40 games last year), then the Oilers might be able to surprise this year. Another key factor for this team is how Ference affects the rest of the defense. If he mentors the younger defensemen in the lineup and takes on a leadership role, there might be progress here.

The Oilers will make the playoffs if...

... RNH comes back hot, they get better when playing 5 on 5 (-9 last year), and the defense stops hanging Dubnyk out to dry. Offense starts with responsible defense, and the Oilers got hemmed in their own zone far too often last year. I think they need to cycle more in the offensive zone too. The one thing I took from the Oilers games I watched last year is that they're much more likely to shoot off the rush and go one and done than work the puck around for a better opportunity. There's also the small matter of having five teams in their division who all have the chops to make deep playoff runs this season. If one of them severely falters, the Oilers might become a factor in the wild card race, but that's as far as I think they'll get this season.

The Oilers will miss the playoffs if...

... this team continues to look like it's on the rebuild, the majority of the chances are for the other team, and the team can't stay healthy. Edmonton was outshot in 35 of its 48 games last year. That has to change if they want to go anywhere this season. The proof is in the pudding: when they were even or outshooting their opponents, they were 8-3-2. They can't afford to get stuck in their own zone and wind up taking bad penalties or giving up goals. They need to play better in front of Dubnyk and they need better offensive tactics than run-and-gun. Playing at Rexall Place is no excuse for getting into track meets with opposing teams. I don't like the way the front office has been spending, either. They're basically forced to make a trade or two at the deadline if the team goes south, that is if they want to improve their defense for the future.