October Report Cards, Part 2

Note: Records are prior to games on November 1st.

Nashville Predators (6-5-2)
Grade: C
Would it really be Nashville Predators hockey if we weren't talking about a sputtering offense and a pretty good defense? Seems like every year the Predators insist on trying to win every game 2-1 and all anyone ever talks about is how tough they are to play against. They need to work on maintaining leads in the next few games, as they blew a 3-0 first period lead in Phoenix the other night, losing 5-4 in a shootout.

New Jersey Devils (3-5-4)
Grade: D
Hard to make an argument for a group that's lost nine of 12 games so far and is towards the bottom of the NHL in scoring while also in the bottom half in defense. Given the dearth of offensive talent on this team, the power play has been pretty good, coupled with an average penalty kill. The signing of Ryane Clowe has not worked out for this team, as I expected.

New York Islanders (4-5-3)
Grade: C-
I still believe that the Islanders are a better team than their record indicates and what they've shown so far this season. They're putting the puck in the net and have been good on special teams so far, but last night's 57-shot effort in Ottawa aside they're not winning that battle and they haven't been able to keep the puck out of their net.

New York Rangers (5-7-0)
Grade: C-
They get a bit of a pass due to all the injuries they've sustained thus far, but they still haven't been playing good hockey. The offense hasn't hit its stride yet, though that's to be expected when it has yet to be at full strength. The special teams have been pretty good so far but the Rangers are the NHL's worst team at 5 on 5 this season.

Ottawa Senators (4-6-2)
Grade: D+
Yikes, there are a number of defensive issues with this team. They were already 28th in the NHL in shot differential before last night's -26 against the Islanders. Goal scoring hasn't been a problem for the Senators and they've also been pretty good 5 on 5 and on the penalty kill, so I expect them to turn it around soon. They just have to avoid the defensive breakdowns and sustain the forecheck better.

Philadelphia Flyers (3-8-0)
Grade: F-
Yes, the Flyers get an F-, the worst possible grade on this scale. Their grade is even worse than the Sabres, Panthers, and Oilers because Philadelphia was expected to have a bounce back year. They've been beaten soundly all over the ice and some of their best players haven't shown up yet this season. Not that it factors into their grade, but last night's 7-0 loss at home to Washington is a microcosm of the laughable failure this team has suffered.

Phoenix Coyotes (9-3-2)
Grade: B+
Phoenix is looking like a serious contender out west, and the shocking thing to me is that they're tied for third in the NHL in scoring. The defense hasn't been as sharp as we're used to seeing under head coach Dave Tippett, but aside from that they are firing on all cylinders. They have the most points by defensemen in the NHL, and the trio of Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Derek Morris, and Keith Yandle has combined for eight goals and 23 assists through the team's first 14 games.

Pittsburgh Penguins (9-4-0)
Grade: A-
Props to the Penguins for being the class of a bad division so far, because even with Evgeni Malkin's recent scoring drought they're still winning games. Jussi Jokinen has been on fire with six goals in October. Marc-Andre Fleury has been good, and it's really helped this team get settled in through the first month. The penalty kill has been a bit weak so far, but there's plenty of season left for that to improve.

San Jose Sharks (10-1-2)
Grade: A+
The Sharks are the NHL's best team through October, though fans in Colorado and St. Louis could easily make cases for their teams. Rookie Tomas Hertl has cooled off after his ridiculous start to the season, but now Joe Pavelski has the hot stick and it goes to show that their depth is their biggest weapon. Antti Niemi has been a brick wall in net, but I wonder if he's getting overused early on.

St. Louis Blues (7-1-2)
Grade: A
A light schedule in October has seen the Blues play just ten games (not including last night's win over Florida), but that hasn't stopped them from making quite an impression in the early going. If you haven't seen this team play yet, you need to fix that problem. Over the years I've never thought of the Blues as a particularly fun team to watch, but this season they are making me tune in regularly with their inspired play at both ends of the ice.

Tampa Bay Lightning (8-4-0)
Grade: B+
They've been impressive so far, but this is once again a stereotypical Lightning start to a season. They're always the team that comes out of the gate hot, but then as time goes on their defensive issues catch up to them and they fall back into the pack. All of their metrics look good except for the shot differential, where they've been outshot by 1.4 per game through the end of October. They need to get that number positive.

Toronto Maple Leafs (10-4-0)
Grade: A-
I had a feeling that the Leafs would be a solid team this season, but I didn't expect a 10-4 run through the first month of the season. There's a huge red flag with this team, though, and it's possession. The Leafs have been terrible in the faceoff circle and are 29th in the league in shot differential. However, they have won every game in which they outshot their opponent, and they are 4-2 in games that they have trailed after either the first or second period.

Vancouver Canucks (9-5-1)
Grade: B
This grade would be higher if John Tortorella hadn't already made their power play as horrible as he did the Rangers' during his tenure in New York. They're getting scoring from many sources, but not all at once and it has left them in the middle of the NHL in scoring. The penalty kill has been very stingy so far and Roberto Luongo is off to a nice start. They're headed in the right direction.

Washington Capitals (5-7-0)
Grade: C-
They don't deserve a higher grade than this for their play in October, but they get an A++ for their 7-0 win in Philadelphia last night (and it was without Ovechkin too). The problem for the Caps is even strength play; they're a minus in that department and it's led to their sub-.500 record even though their power play and penalty kill rank third and second, respectively.

Winnipeg Jets (5-7-2)
Grade: D
I think it's time to end things with Ondrej Pavelec. He's a bad goalie, and Al Montoya has played wonderfully in his limited playing time so far. Stands to reason that they should give Montoya more starts, right? The offense has not produced so far, the new acquisitions have not fit into the lineup well and the power play has been punchless. Their 44.1% on faceoffs is the second-worst in the league, only ahead of Calgary.

30 Teams, 30 Days - New York Islanders

To all my friends who are reading this: I told you so. Prior to last season, I said that it would be the year that the Islanders would surprise and make the playoffs. They may not have advanced past the first round, but they put up one hell of a fight against the Penguins and took them to six games. The offseason brought some changes to the upstart Islanders. They traded disgruntled prospect Nino Niederreiter to Minnesota for forward Cal Clutterbuck and a pick, which they used to select goaltender Eamon McAdam of the USHL. They also signed Pierre-Marc Bouchard and Peter Regin to upgrade the forward unit. Brad Boyes was let go in free agency, as well as Marty Reasoner, who is believed to be retiring. They still have to make a decision on RFA David Ullstrom, too. With the NHL's lowest payroll, the Islanders believe in making the most of what they have. They'll have to repeat that performance to return to the playoffs.

Projected Forward Lines:

Matt Moulson - John Tavares - Pierre-Marc Bouchard
Josh Bailey - Frans Nielsen - Kyle Okposo
Michael Grabner - Ryan Strome - Colin McDonald
Matt Martin - Casey Cizikas - Cal Clutterbuck
Peter Regin - Anders Lee

Before I say anything else about this forward unit, I need to stress how much it annoys me that Grabner can't crack the top six on this team. He has all the offensive skills in the world, but his lack of endurance and less physical game are what keep him on the third line, I suppose. Anyway, Bouchard will immediately be the 1RW for the Islanders, and will be expected to fill the voids of Brad Boyes and P-A Parenteau before him. The second line was so good last year that I'm fully expecting head coach Jack Capuano to keep them together for opening night and beyond. Moving on down to the fourth line, it'll have three players who are probably better than their "fourth line" designation would suggest, but what it means is that Capuano can confidently roll four lines against most teams.

Projected Defensive Pairings:

Travis Hamonic - Andrew MacDonald
Lubomir Visnovsky - Bryan Strait
Matt Carkner - Thomas Hickey
Matt Donovan

Here's where things turn into an adventure for the Islanders. Hamonic just signed a fat contract this past offseason and Visnovsky is also well-paid, but the other five defensemen who are currently under contract make just over $4 million... combined. The 21st-ranked defense in the NHL has to play better this year if they're going to make progress. They lost Mark Streit this offseason when he signed with the Flyers, but that doesn't mean that all the offense from the backend is gone. Visnovsky is still around to quarterback the power play, and it's easy to forget that just three years ago he put up 50 assists with the Ducks. However, losing Streit does mean that there will be more pressure on the forwards to create their own chances, as many of the other D-men are not puck movers.

Goaltending:

Evgeni Nabokov
Kevin Poulin

Last year's playoff exit has led me to believe that Nabokov is done. He wasn't bad in the regular season, with a 2.50 GAA and a .910 save percentage, but man did he ever get shredded by the Penguins in the conference quarterfinals. He looked old, slow, and quite frankly washed up. I believe that Poulin will get more work than he did last year (he only appeared in five of 48 games for the Islanders), somewhere in the neighborhood of 20-25 games. Poulin had a poor regular season but played brilliantly off the bench in the playoffs. It is imperative that this area of the ice is no longer the biggest liability here, or else the Isles will be on the outside looking in come season's end.

Special Teams:

Last year was a good one for the Isles on the man advantage, as their 19.9% conversion rate was enough to keep other teams honest and conscious about taking penalties. The Islanders were also +14 on the differential, which is a number they should aspire to repeat this season. My question here is whether or not the loss of Streit will negatively affect the power play by more than a negligible amount. If it does, they'll have to rely more on their 5 on 5 play (which wasn't great last year) to win games. The penalty kill was iffy last year, finishing at 80.3%, good for 21st in the NHL. They also weren't as dangerous while shorthanded as we're used to seeing, only scoring twice. Clutterbuck will be a key penalty killer this year, as will Grabner. Grabner is something of a shorthanded specialist, as his presence on the ice always makes opposing power plays think twice about making those D-to-D passes.

X-Factor:

The X-Factor is whoever is in net on a given night. Nabokov and Poulin have to improve upon their outputs from a season ago. The realignment is bringing three new division rivals, all of whom have potent goal scorers. While it's true that the team defense has to be better in order to stop opportunities before they start, the men with the masks and the big pads can't be so porous again. I'm not sure this team is any better than they were last year, so it falls on them to remedy the weaknesses and turn them into strengths.

The Islanders will make the playoffs if...

... the goalies are better, the defense is better, the penalty kill is better... you get the idea. These guys can light the lamp all night long, but they have to do a better job at making sure the one behind their net stays off. The defensemen need to be more responsible. The forwards can't turn the puck over so much. The goalies have to stand tall and be a plus for this team. Their division was already tough before, but now with the additions of Washington and Columbus (not to shortchange Carolina but the Islanders have owned them lately) they're going to have an uphill battle to get back to the playoffs.

The Islanders will miss the playoffs if...

... we see the same or worse defensive numbers this year. It's weird, the more I think about this team the more I'm talking myself out of picking them to make the playoffs. Normally when I spend a long time mulling over what a team has and what I think they can do, I eventually say to myself "these guys are a darkhorse, nobody will see it coming, watch out for them." And maybe that'll be the case this year, who knows? Expectations are certainly higher out on the Island but they're not through the roof, not yet at least. This is a team that can keep themselves in games with their goal scoring but can take themselves out of them just as quickly with poor defense. I wonder which team shows up at the start of the season.

Off-Season Update

Here is a list of recent Offseason signings and some thoughts on each of them.

-  Dustin Penner has returned to the Anahiem Ducks with a 1 year deal worth 2 Million. I feel that this was a good signing for the Ducks as they added a top 6 forward with good size at 6'4" and 240 lbs. In the shorten season, he had 14 points in 33 games but he was mostly on the 3rd line and the 2nd Power Play unit for the Kings. I feel that with the Ducks, he could be on the 1st or 2nd line and we could see about 45-60 points this upcoming season. He was with the Ducks when they won the cup in 06-07 and he will fit in nicely on either the top line line Getzlaf and Perry or the second line with Selanne (still an UFA).

-  Detroit has resigned Brendan Smith to a 2 year deal worth 2.525 million per year. Brendan Smith was the 1st round pick of the Red Wings in 2007 and is a top 4 defenceman for the Wings. I feel that the Wings gave a little bit too much money for the young Dman but at 24 and only 2 years of NHL experience, he still has a lot of potential to be solid on the blue-line.

-  Islanders resign Josh Bailey to a 5 year deal worth 16.5 million. I feel that this is a great signing for the Islanders. Bailey, 9th overall in the 2008 draft, is only 23 and has become a solid 2nd line center for the Islanders.  He plays on both the PK and the PP and was an important piece in the Islanders reaching the playoffs. In the shorten season, he was able to accumulate 19 points in 38 games and I can see him getting around 40-50 points in a full season.

- Alec Martinez has been resigned by the Los Angeles Kings to a 2 year deal. Terms have not been released yet. Since the terms of the deal has not been released, it's a bit difficult to put a full review on this signing. That being said, I feel the Kings have resigned an important part of their team. Martinez is a 3rd line defenceman on a team that is build around Drew Doughty. Based on his first deal, I feel that the terms of the deal will be about 1.3 million or so. If it is, I feel that the Kings were able to re-sign a key part of their defensive unit.

- Jacob Markstrom signs a 2 year deal with Panthers. Terms have yet to be released. Markstrom is the future goalie of the Florida Panthers but its taking a bit longer than thought. He plays for a rebuilding Panthers team that will be better with the addition of 2nd overall Aleksander Barkov. I feel that Markstrom will be a solid starting goalie but he is only 23 and the Panthers will still be at the bottom of the Eastern Conference for a few more years.