30 Teams, 30 Days - New York Rangers

After the great success of the 2011-12 season, it's hard not to feel like last year was a bit of a disappointment. The Rangers struggled through their same old offensive and power play problems, got solid play from a defense that was without Marc Staal for a while, received the usual greatness from Henrik Lundqvist, and made the playoffs. After a thrilling seven-game series win in the first round against Washington, the Rangers looked outmatched and outcoached in the second round, losing in five to Boston. In the offseason, the Rangers weren't too busy. They decided not to buy out Brad Richards even though it probably would have been the smarter choice. They signed Benoit Pouliot and Dominic Moore, and made trades for Justin Falk and Danny Kristo. There's only one move left to make, and that's to get RFA Derek Stepan signed. Having a new coach in Alain Vigneault should bring a more offensive philosophy to this team and I'm excited to see what they can do this season.

Projected Forward Lines:

Carl Hagelin - Derek Stepan - Rick Nash
Chris Kreider - Derrick Brassard - Ryan Callahan
Mats Zuccarello - Brad Richards - Brian Boyle
Benoit Pouliot - Dominic Moore - Derek Dorsett
Taylor Pyatt - Arron Asham

Something that the Rangers lacked after trading for Rick Nash last offseason were energy players on the lower lines. The subsequent trade that sent Marian Gaborik to Columbus remedied that a bit, as Derek Dorsett has helped fill that role thus far. I'm still not sure they fully replaced what they lost, but they did get a faceoff specialist in Moore and Pouliot, who can do a little bit of everything. They still might need to make a trade to get Stepan signed, but for now Brassard looks like he can hold the fort down just fine. He was brilliant after coming over with Dorsett in the trade for Gaborik, and has looked strong so far in the preseason. Left wing is a bit weak overall, with only Kreider providing size and step up efforts needed from Hagelin and Zuccarello this year. Nash and Callahan will be called upon to score goals, and I think they'll do just fine there.

Projected Defensive Pairings:

Ryan McDonagh - Dan Girardi
Marc Staal - Anton Stralman
John Moore - Michael Del Zotto
Justin Falk

Assuming Staal is 100% and can play big minutes, this defensive unit should be fine. Though Stralman and Del Zotto are puck movers, the Rangers still lack a true power play general on the backend. Del Zotto was an adventure last year in his own end, and he needs to have a bounce back season in order to keep his roster spot. With a new coaching philosophy in place, I wonder if we're going to see the Rangers' defensemen sacrificing their bodies to block shots as often as they did under John Tortorella. Of course, when you have a guy like Lundqvist in net, I think the better option is to just let him do his job. John Moore should see more ice time this season and looks to improve on his performance from last year, which was impressive given his youth and inexperience.

Goaltending:

Henrik Lundqvist
Martin Biron

The NHL's best goaltender returns in a contract year with abundant uncertainty regarding his future in New York. I think that when all is said and done, a contract gets signed and he stays with the Rangers. As for what to expect this season, the more offensive approach should mean that the puck isn't in the Rangers' defensive zone as much, which can only mean good things for Lundqvist and backup Biron. Playing in the offensive zone means you can't get scored on. Hopefully Lundqvist won't have to play 70 games this season, as every year he's touched 70 he's either burned out in the playoffs or the Rangers failed to get there. I think that 65 would be the optimal number here, with Biron seeing the rest of the starts.

Special Teams:

I know that the Rangers don't possess the worst power play in the league, but man were they infuriating to watch under John Tortorella. Too much passing and cycling, not enough motion, not enough shooting, and not nearly enough scoring. The Rangers were 23rd in the NHL at 15.7% efficiency. That number should and must climb under Vigneault. Teams aren't afraid of taking penalties against the Rangers because they know they won't pay for it. The Rangers were also unusually average on the penalty kill, placing 15th at 81.1%. Having guys like Moore and Pouliot in the fold should help raise that number. Discipline was not an issue for the Rangers last year, as they were shorthanded the 8th-fewest times and were +5 on the differential.

X-Factor:

How will Vigneault's system work with this team? He doesn't have players like the Sedins in New York, but he does have a better version of Ryan Kesler in Nash. If there's suddenly a major offensive boost with the same level of play defensively, the Rangers might put themselves in the Stanley Cup discussion. Of course, they're going to need big seasons from Brassard, Nash, Callahan, basically the entire top six, but I believe they can thrive under Vigneault. The power play has to be better as well. They can't just whip the puck around on a cycle for two minutes and expect to succeed that way. It just won't work. As the old adage goes, good things happen when you get pucks to the net. The Rangers would do well to follow that advice.

The Rangers will make the playoffs if...

... the necessary improvements are made, the defense continues to be sturdy, and the best players play like the best players. The Rangers are a pretty safe bet to reach the postseason this year, not because they're so much better than last year but because the rest of their division didn't improve enough to surpass them. They have the best goalie in the league, a very solid defense, and enough skill players up front to make noise. This team is built from the net out, which hasn't necessarily been the Stanley Cup formula of recent years but with a guy like The King in net, you could be forgiven for structuring the team that way.

The Rangers will miss the playoffs if...

... Lundqvist doesn't get enough rest, the offense continues to struggle, and the bottom pairing regresses. I won't sit here and say that I think the Rangers will come out of the gate firing on all cylinders. They have a new coach, a new system to learn, and a nine-game road trip to start the year. They aren't going to be playing their best hockey early on. However, by season's end, I believe they'll be a force in the Metropolitan Division. They have the tools to make a deep playoff run, the only thing left to do now is put it all together.

30 Teams, 30 Days - New York Islanders

To all my friends who are reading this: I told you so. Prior to last season, I said that it would be the year that the Islanders would surprise and make the playoffs. They may not have advanced past the first round, but they put up one hell of a fight against the Penguins and took them to six games. The offseason brought some changes to the upstart Islanders. They traded disgruntled prospect Nino Niederreiter to Minnesota for forward Cal Clutterbuck and a pick, which they used to select goaltender Eamon McAdam of the USHL. They also signed Pierre-Marc Bouchard and Peter Regin to upgrade the forward unit. Brad Boyes was let go in free agency, as well as Marty Reasoner, who is believed to be retiring. They still have to make a decision on RFA David Ullstrom, too. With the NHL's lowest payroll, the Islanders believe in making the most of what they have. They'll have to repeat that performance to return to the playoffs.

Projected Forward Lines:

Matt Moulson - John Tavares - Pierre-Marc Bouchard
Josh Bailey - Frans Nielsen - Kyle Okposo
Michael Grabner - Ryan Strome - Colin McDonald
Matt Martin - Casey Cizikas - Cal Clutterbuck
Peter Regin - Anders Lee

Before I say anything else about this forward unit, I need to stress how much it annoys me that Grabner can't crack the top six on this team. He has all the offensive skills in the world, but his lack of endurance and less physical game are what keep him on the third line, I suppose. Anyway, Bouchard will immediately be the 1RW for the Islanders, and will be expected to fill the voids of Brad Boyes and P-A Parenteau before him. The second line was so good last year that I'm fully expecting head coach Jack Capuano to keep them together for opening night and beyond. Moving on down to the fourth line, it'll have three players who are probably better than their "fourth line" designation would suggest, but what it means is that Capuano can confidently roll four lines against most teams.

Projected Defensive Pairings:

Travis Hamonic - Andrew MacDonald
Lubomir Visnovsky - Bryan Strait
Matt Carkner - Thomas Hickey
Matt Donovan

Here's where things turn into an adventure for the Islanders. Hamonic just signed a fat contract this past offseason and Visnovsky is also well-paid, but the other five defensemen who are currently under contract make just over $4 million... combined. The 21st-ranked defense in the NHL has to play better this year if they're going to make progress. They lost Mark Streit this offseason when he signed with the Flyers, but that doesn't mean that all the offense from the backend is gone. Visnovsky is still around to quarterback the power play, and it's easy to forget that just three years ago he put up 50 assists with the Ducks. However, losing Streit does mean that there will be more pressure on the forwards to create their own chances, as many of the other D-men are not puck movers.

Goaltending:

Evgeni Nabokov
Kevin Poulin

Last year's playoff exit has led me to believe that Nabokov is done. He wasn't bad in the regular season, with a 2.50 GAA and a .910 save percentage, but man did he ever get shredded by the Penguins in the conference quarterfinals. He looked old, slow, and quite frankly washed up. I believe that Poulin will get more work than he did last year (he only appeared in five of 48 games for the Islanders), somewhere in the neighborhood of 20-25 games. Poulin had a poor regular season but played brilliantly off the bench in the playoffs. It is imperative that this area of the ice is no longer the biggest liability here, or else the Isles will be on the outside looking in come season's end.

Special Teams:

Last year was a good one for the Isles on the man advantage, as their 19.9% conversion rate was enough to keep other teams honest and conscious about taking penalties. The Islanders were also +14 on the differential, which is a number they should aspire to repeat this season. My question here is whether or not the loss of Streit will negatively affect the power play by more than a negligible amount. If it does, they'll have to rely more on their 5 on 5 play (which wasn't great last year) to win games. The penalty kill was iffy last year, finishing at 80.3%, good for 21st in the NHL. They also weren't as dangerous while shorthanded as we're used to seeing, only scoring twice. Clutterbuck will be a key penalty killer this year, as will Grabner. Grabner is something of a shorthanded specialist, as his presence on the ice always makes opposing power plays think twice about making those D-to-D passes.

X-Factor:

The X-Factor is whoever is in net on a given night. Nabokov and Poulin have to improve upon their outputs from a season ago. The realignment is bringing three new division rivals, all of whom have potent goal scorers. While it's true that the team defense has to be better in order to stop opportunities before they start, the men with the masks and the big pads can't be so porous again. I'm not sure this team is any better than they were last year, so it falls on them to remedy the weaknesses and turn them into strengths.

The Islanders will make the playoffs if...

... the goalies are better, the defense is better, the penalty kill is better... you get the idea. These guys can light the lamp all night long, but they have to do a better job at making sure the one behind their net stays off. The defensemen need to be more responsible. The forwards can't turn the puck over so much. The goalies have to stand tall and be a plus for this team. Their division was already tough before, but now with the additions of Washington and Columbus (not to shortchange Carolina but the Islanders have owned them lately) they're going to have an uphill battle to get back to the playoffs.

The Islanders will miss the playoffs if...

... we see the same or worse defensive numbers this year. It's weird, the more I think about this team the more I'm talking myself out of picking them to make the playoffs. Normally when I spend a long time mulling over what a team has and what I think they can do, I eventually say to myself "these guys are a darkhorse, nobody will see it coming, watch out for them." And maybe that'll be the case this year, who knows? Expectations are certainly higher out on the Island but they're not through the roof, not yet at least. This is a team that can keep themselves in games with their goal scoring but can take themselves out of them just as quickly with poor defense. I wonder which team shows up at the start of the season.