October Report Cards, Part 2

Note: Records are prior to games on November 1st.

Nashville Predators (6-5-2)
Grade: C
Would it really be Nashville Predators hockey if we weren't talking about a sputtering offense and a pretty good defense? Seems like every year the Predators insist on trying to win every game 2-1 and all anyone ever talks about is how tough they are to play against. They need to work on maintaining leads in the next few games, as they blew a 3-0 first period lead in Phoenix the other night, losing 5-4 in a shootout.

New Jersey Devils (3-5-4)
Grade: D
Hard to make an argument for a group that's lost nine of 12 games so far and is towards the bottom of the NHL in scoring while also in the bottom half in defense. Given the dearth of offensive talent on this team, the power play has been pretty good, coupled with an average penalty kill. The signing of Ryane Clowe has not worked out for this team, as I expected.

New York Islanders (4-5-3)
Grade: C-
I still believe that the Islanders are a better team than their record indicates and what they've shown so far this season. They're putting the puck in the net and have been good on special teams so far, but last night's 57-shot effort in Ottawa aside they're not winning that battle and they haven't been able to keep the puck out of their net.

New York Rangers (5-7-0)
Grade: C-
They get a bit of a pass due to all the injuries they've sustained thus far, but they still haven't been playing good hockey. The offense hasn't hit its stride yet, though that's to be expected when it has yet to be at full strength. The special teams have been pretty good so far but the Rangers are the NHL's worst team at 5 on 5 this season.

Ottawa Senators (4-6-2)
Grade: D+
Yikes, there are a number of defensive issues with this team. They were already 28th in the NHL in shot differential before last night's -26 against the Islanders. Goal scoring hasn't been a problem for the Senators and they've also been pretty good 5 on 5 and on the penalty kill, so I expect them to turn it around soon. They just have to avoid the defensive breakdowns and sustain the forecheck better.

Philadelphia Flyers (3-8-0)
Grade: F-
Yes, the Flyers get an F-, the worst possible grade on this scale. Their grade is even worse than the Sabres, Panthers, and Oilers because Philadelphia was expected to have a bounce back year. They've been beaten soundly all over the ice and some of their best players haven't shown up yet this season. Not that it factors into their grade, but last night's 7-0 loss at home to Washington is a microcosm of the laughable failure this team has suffered.

Phoenix Coyotes (9-3-2)
Grade: B+
Phoenix is looking like a serious contender out west, and the shocking thing to me is that they're tied for third in the NHL in scoring. The defense hasn't been as sharp as we're used to seeing under head coach Dave Tippett, but aside from that they are firing on all cylinders. They have the most points by defensemen in the NHL, and the trio of Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Derek Morris, and Keith Yandle has combined for eight goals and 23 assists through the team's first 14 games.

Pittsburgh Penguins (9-4-0)
Grade: A-
Props to the Penguins for being the class of a bad division so far, because even with Evgeni Malkin's recent scoring drought they're still winning games. Jussi Jokinen has been on fire with six goals in October. Marc-Andre Fleury has been good, and it's really helped this team get settled in through the first month. The penalty kill has been a bit weak so far, but there's plenty of season left for that to improve.

San Jose Sharks (10-1-2)
Grade: A+
The Sharks are the NHL's best team through October, though fans in Colorado and St. Louis could easily make cases for their teams. Rookie Tomas Hertl has cooled off after his ridiculous start to the season, but now Joe Pavelski has the hot stick and it goes to show that their depth is their biggest weapon. Antti Niemi has been a brick wall in net, but I wonder if he's getting overused early on.

St. Louis Blues (7-1-2)
Grade: A
A light schedule in October has seen the Blues play just ten games (not including last night's win over Florida), but that hasn't stopped them from making quite an impression in the early going. If you haven't seen this team play yet, you need to fix that problem. Over the years I've never thought of the Blues as a particularly fun team to watch, but this season they are making me tune in regularly with their inspired play at both ends of the ice.

Tampa Bay Lightning (8-4-0)
Grade: B+
They've been impressive so far, but this is once again a stereotypical Lightning start to a season. They're always the team that comes out of the gate hot, but then as time goes on their defensive issues catch up to them and they fall back into the pack. All of their metrics look good except for the shot differential, where they've been outshot by 1.4 per game through the end of October. They need to get that number positive.

Toronto Maple Leafs (10-4-0)
Grade: A-
I had a feeling that the Leafs would be a solid team this season, but I didn't expect a 10-4 run through the first month of the season. There's a huge red flag with this team, though, and it's possession. The Leafs have been terrible in the faceoff circle and are 29th in the league in shot differential. However, they have won every game in which they outshot their opponent, and they are 4-2 in games that they have trailed after either the first or second period.

Vancouver Canucks (9-5-1)
Grade: B
This grade would be higher if John Tortorella hadn't already made their power play as horrible as he did the Rangers' during his tenure in New York. They're getting scoring from many sources, but not all at once and it has left them in the middle of the NHL in scoring. The penalty kill has been very stingy so far and Roberto Luongo is off to a nice start. They're headed in the right direction.

Washington Capitals (5-7-0)
Grade: C-
They don't deserve a higher grade than this for their play in October, but they get an A++ for their 7-0 win in Philadelphia last night (and it was without Ovechkin too). The problem for the Caps is even strength play; they're a minus in that department and it's led to their sub-.500 record even though their power play and penalty kill rank third and second, respectively.

Winnipeg Jets (5-7-2)
Grade: D
I think it's time to end things with Ondrej Pavelec. He's a bad goalie, and Al Montoya has played wonderfully in his limited playing time so far. Stands to reason that they should give Montoya more starts, right? The offense has not produced so far, the new acquisitions have not fit into the lineup well and the power play has been punchless. Their 44.1% on faceoffs is the second-worst in the league, only ahead of Calgary.

30 Teams, 30 Days - Nashville Predators

Nashville enters this season carrying a ton of players who would be depth forwards on most teams, but instead are forced into top or second line duties due to the rest of the roster. They were quite busy this offseason, signing Matt Cullen, Viktor Stalberg, Matt Hendricks, and Eric Nystrom to contracts. They were also fortunate at the draft; consensus #1 prospect Seth Jones fell right into their laps with the 4th pick after Colorado, Florida, and Tampa Bay -- teams that could all use help on the backend -- passed on him in favor of forwards. Given the state of the team, there will be a mostly open competition for all the forward lines as well as the backup goalie spot behind Pekka Rinne. In a year where their path to the postseason is open, this patchwork forward group and stout defense might be enough to carry them into the playoffs.

Projected Forward Lines:

Viktor Stalberg - Mike Fisher - Patric Hornqvist
Colin Wilson - David Legwand - Filip Forsberg
Nick Spaling - Matt Cullen - Craig Smith
Eric Nystrom - Paul Gaustad - Matt Hendricks
Gabriel Bourque - Richard Clune

Nashville remains a team that has good forward depth in terms of two-way players, but not scoring. The Predators were tied with Florida for the fewest goals scored last season, netting only 109 in 48 games. I for one am not expecting substantial improvement in that category, but the potential is there. It's not like this is a bad group of forwards, I don't think anyone could argue that point. It's just that they lack a big time sniper, a big time playmaker, and a true power forward. Forsberg was acquired at the deadline last year from Washington for Martin Erat, and even though Forsberg has only 5 games of NHL experience, talk amongst scouts is that he's going to be a solid player in the NHL. While they did fill holes in free agency, I can't help feeling like this team would've been better served trying to get a guy like Mike Ribeiro, Mikhali Grabovski, or Michael Ryder. Quality over quantity, I suppose.

Projected Defensive Pairings:

Roman Josi - Shea Weber
Seth Jones - Kevin Klein
Ryan Ellis - Mattias Ekholm
Victor Bartley

The defense, however, is still very stingy. Bit of a down year in their first without Ryan Suter, but they should return to form this year. Josi had a stellar showing at the World Championships, scoring nine points in ten games en route to being named the tournament MVP, even though his Swiss team lost in the gold medal game to Sweden 5-1. Weber is a dangerous two-way defenseman who leads the hit parade as well as launch bombs second only to Zdeno Chara from the point. Jones should step in right away on the second pairing, and having a responsible partner like Klein will help his development. There will be a battle for the 6th slot between Ekholm and Bartley, and that'll be the one to watch in camp.

Goaltending:

Pekka Rinne
Carter Hutton

Rinne was solid yet again in net last year. There had been concerns about how he would perform after the lockout ended because he got lit up in the KHL. A 2.43 GAA and a .910 save percentage are both inferior to his NHL totals, but with an improved defense and a forward corps full of two-way players, his productivity should come back to the mean. The search for a viable backup in Nashville continues, with this season being Hutton's turn to try. I picked him over Hellberg (awesome name, by the way) to make the team because Hellberg is on an entry level contract and wouldn't have to clear waivers.

Special Teams:

Nashville wheeled out a middle of the road power play unit last year, hitting 17.1% of the time and finishing 17th in the NHL for their efforts. Their problem was that they didn't get the man advantage enough, finishing with the third-lowest opportunities (140) in the league. I have a feeling that it's going to be power play by committee this year for the Predators. As stated earlier, they lack big time threats up front. For the lack of chances the power play got, they were still +1 on the differential because they had the third-fewest number of times shorthanded. The penalty kill, however, was awful last year. A 75.5% success rate placed them 29th in the NHL, ahead of only Florida. They added enough speed up front to remedy this, and a better defense will also improve their numbers.

X-Factor:

Oddly enough, I think the biggest X-Factor this team has is one of the two pieces that has been there since the beginning. No, I'm not talking about their career leader in almost every important stat, David Legwand. I'm talking about head coach Barry Trotz. He's the only coach in Nashville's 15-year history, and while I'm not sure that he's on the hot seat this year, the poor performance last season can't be sitting well with him. However, if anyone can get the most out of this team, it's Trotz. Back in the 1993-94 season, the AHL's Portland Pirates were in their inaugural season, and Trotz coached them to a Calder Cup championship. He and Dave Tippett (Phoenix) are the best coaches that nobody has heard of.

The Predators will make the playoffs if...

... someone steps up as a go-to guy, the penalty kill is leaps and bounds better than last year, and Rinne has another Vezina-quality year. Nashville is in the Central Division, where anything can happen this year. Out of the five teams in that group who I don't consider to be playoff locks, Nashville is the most "sneaky good" team there. Allow me to explain. Dallas and Minnesota have star power at the top, with Seguin/Benn and Koivu/Parise, respectively, leading the charge. Colorado is a team who we kind of know what to expect -- good offense, terrible defense, probably not playoff-caliber yet, but they have a chance. Then there's Winnipeg, who shed some dead weight this offseason from a team that had stretches of brilliance last year but fizzled out down the stretch and missed the playoffs, so we can expect another season where they're fantastic at home but below average on the road. So that brings me back to the Predators. I'm going to be honest, I can't peg this team yet. Expectations are low but their grit and determination are what makes me apply the "sneaky good" label to them.

The Predators will miss the playoffs if...

... the defense doesn't improve, nobody emerges from the forward group, and the penalty killing woes continue. Barry Trotz's teams in Nashville rarely beat themselves, but last year was a case study in that exact practice. They were disciplined, as usual, but couldn't get big kills when they needed to and were inept on the offensive side of things. Losing guys like Sergei Kostitsyn (who was bad for the locker room, but he was the most gifted offensive talent on the roster) and Erat hurt, but if Hornqvist comes back healthy and they can major contributions from new acquisitions like Stalberg and Cullen, there's hope. Nashville's front office has assembled a veteran group here, but I'm not sure that mixing their core with multiple teams' spare parts is the right answer.