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Saturday, July 13, 2013

How Ilya Kovalchuk Screwed New Jersey

If you're like me, you were shocked to learn of Ilya Kovalchuk's sudden retirement from the NHL, at age 30. If you haven't heard about it yet... well, sorry for the lack of a spoiler alert, but yes, it's true. Kovalchuk left 12 years and $77 million out of his original 15-year, $102 million contract on the table because he simply wants to return home to Russia and play in the KHL. He turned down being "the guy" in Newark, just so he can go home and half ass his way to being one of, if not the best player that the KHL has ever seen. Don't get me wrong, the KHL has some talent, but let's be real, it's not on the NHL's level. There are many (the bulk being Devils fans, I would assume) who are sad to see him go. By most accounts, he's an exciting player to watch, always a threat to score, and has good offensive vision, but he's quite the liability in his own end. And I'll grant all of that. What's my reaction to Kovalchuk leaving for Mother Russia?

Good riddance.

Had this come about before free agency started, or right after the end of the season, I'd have understood. However, let's look at what New Jersey has done so far this offseason:

  • They inexplicably signed Marek Zidlicky to a 1-year deal worth $3 million. I heard plenty of Devils fans calling for Zidlicky's head by the end of this past season. He can still skate well and he moves the puck, but the Devils have a loaded defense corps in their farm system. In what's looking like a rebuilding year, it's time to give the kids a crack at the big show.
  • In what was undoubtedly their best move so far, the Devils picked up Michael Ryder for 2 years and $7 million total. Ryder only appeared in 27 games for Montreal this past season, but he was on pace for 30 goals and 63 points over an 82-game season. He'll be called upon to replace the possibly fluky season that David Clarkson had two seasons ago, when he scored 30 goals in 80 games (note: he did score 15 in 48 games this past season, but I'm not banking on another 30 from him... not on Toronto), and I think Ryder can do the job adequately. He's still a productive player.
  • They gave the following gem of a contract to Ryane Clowe: 5 years, $24.25 million. We're talking about a guy who had as many concussions (three) as he did goals this past season, and all three of his goals came after the trade deadline, when the Sharks dealt him to the Rangers. What boggles my mind is that they let Clarkson walk, I'm guessing because they didn't think he was worth the money that Toronto gave him (7 years at $5.25 million per), yet they hand Clowe a fat contract after the guy completely wasted his contract year.
  • They traded the #9 overall pick in the recent draft (which became Bo Horvat, a center out of the OHL) to Vancouver in exchange for Corey Schneider. Good on them to get their "goaltender of the future" situation sorted out, even though it cost them a top pick in one of the deepest drafts we've seen in a long time. There's also the issue of them not having a first round pick in next year's draft (more on that in a bit), but still, I believe it was a move they had to make. 
  • Not finished yet, the Devils inked the remarkably unspectacular Rostislav Olesz to a 1-year, $1 million contract. Olesz had his most productive campaign for Florida in the 2009-10 season, posting 29 points in 78 games. He hasn't played many meaningful minutes since then and has played in the AHL for the better part of the last two seasons. However, he should get a crack at making the team, since it's a one-way contract.
Given all of these occurrences, Kovalchuk's retirement coming about now, as opposed to a month ago, has to be considered a dagger to the Devils' hopes of contention next season and beyond. While it does free up $6.55 million in cap room per season, we're talking about the team that ranked 21st in attendance a season ago. The Devils have been in dire straits financially for a few years now, and with a volatile ownership situation to boot. They did turn a profit this year, but owner Jeff Vanderbeek missed a $3 million interest payment in April and the company that operates the Prudential Center, Devils Arena, owes $170 million to lenders. For the record, I can't see them moving out of New Jersey, but I digress. Kovalchuk puts asses in seats - that much is obvious. Without him, and Marty Brodeur likely done after next season, the cupboard's pretty bare in Newark. We're looking at a nucleus of Elias, Schneider, Zajac, Henrique (if he re-signs), Zubrus, Ryder, and Clowe, with more aging defensemen than I'd like to count. You could certainly do worse than that in terms of a roster, but that bunch doesn't exactly scream "playoffs".  Plus, and this is possibly the worst of all, the Devils don't have a first round pick in next year's draft. Why? Because they circumvented the salary cap when they tried to sign Kovalchuk the first time, and they deferred the league's penalty of docking a first rounder in any one draft from 2011-2014 until now. Not only that, but on paper, this roster might produce a pick in the top five. In the short-term, they're boned unless new investors come along or the team is sold outright.

However, if they can weather the storm, I believe that the Devils will be better off in the long run. They won't have to worry about Kovalchuk playing zero defense on a nightly basis, nor do they have to worry about him pulling any more dick moves like this. The extra cap space, theoretically, means that they can go out and get some free agent talent in the future, or make a trade for a big contract without worrying about having to dump salary the other way. Given the way GM Lou Lamoriello has spent money so far, though, I wouldn't count on much in the realm of intelligence on that front. They'll be able to build around Adam Henrique and their young defense, along with Schneider, and probably get back to playing the type of hockey that we're all used to seeing: gritty, defensive, and bend-but-don't-break. Even in the ludicrously-stacked Patrick Division (I'm calling the divisions by their old names until the NHL says otherwise), the Devils can still be competitive. It's going to be a few years before we can think about calling them contenders again, but the NHL has a flow to it, and the Devils will be back someday.

Let's hope that they learned a lesson from this, and that's to always be wary of signing and/or drafting Russian players. Between Radulov, the Kostitsyns, and now Kovalchuk, the threat of defection to the KHL is as prevalent as ever.

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