Training Camp!! Start of the 2013/14 Season!

Today marked the 1st day of training camp for NHL teams. The teams went through their physicals today and will begin on-ice portion of training camp tomorrow. With a number of players still unsigned, both UFA and RFA, some key players on teams are missing the beginning of their teams camp. A few key players that are missing the start of training camp include Derek Stepan (Rangers), Cody Franson (Leafs), Alex Pietrangelo (Blues), and Jared Cowen (Senatrors). Restricted Free Agents Cody Hodgson and Nazem Kadri both signed contracts earlier today and was able to participate in the physical portion of training camp.

A number of UFA's who did not sign with any teams are participating in PTO (professional try outs). Some of these players include Mason Raymond who will be in Toronto's training camp, Johan Hedburg in the Rangers training camp, Radek Martinek and Justin Johnson in the Islanders camp, and Brad Boyes in the Panthers training camp. There's others who have been invited and will be participating in teams camps on a PTO basis.

The Puck Drops Tomorrow for Switzerland, Finland; KHL Results for the Week of 9/4-9/11

Tomorrow marks the beginning of hockey in two European nations, as the Swiss National League A and Finland's SM-Liiga drop the puck on their 2013-14 seasons. Germany's DEL and the Czech Extraliga begin on Friday, and Sweden's SHL begins on Saturday. The KHL is already underway though, starting a week ago. Here are the results so far:

September 4, 2013

Dynamo Moscow 5, Traktor Chelyabinsk 1

September 5, 2013

Dinamo Riga 2, Dinamo Minsk 1

Spartak Moscow 2, Atlant Moscow Oblast 0

Metallurg Novokuznetsk 3, Sibir Novosibirsk 2

September 6, 2013

Vityaz Podolsk 5, Traktor Chelyabinsk 3

Admiral Vladivostok 4, Amur Khabarovsk 3 (SO)

Yugra Khanty-Mansiysk 2, Lokomotiv Yaroslavl 1

Severstal Cherepovets 2, Avtomobilist Yekaterinburg 1 (SO)

Medvescak Zagreb 7, CSKA Moscow 1

Dynamo Moscow 3, Metallurg Magnitogorsk 1

SKA St. Petersburg 5, Avangard Omsk 1

Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk 3, Ak Bars Kazan 1

Donbas Donetsk 4, Slovan Bratislava 2

Salavat Yulaev Ufa 3, Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod 2 (SO)

September 8, 2013

Ak Bars Kazan 4, Salavat Yulaev Ufa 3 (SO)

Barys Astana 10, Severstal Cherepovets 1

Metallurg Magnitogorsk 5, Vityaz Podolsk 4

Avangard Omsk 5, Lokomotiv Yaroslavl 2

Yugra Khanty-Mansiysk 4, Atlant Moscow Oblast 1

SKA St. Petersburg 6, Avtomobilist Yekateringburg 4

Dynamo Moscow 4, Neftekhimik Nizhnekasmk 0

Spartak Moscow 5, Slovan Bratislava 0

CSKA Moscow 2, Dinamo Minsk 1 (OT)

Donbas Donetsk 3, Lev Praha 2 (OT)

Dinamo Riga 5, Madvescak Zagreb 1

Traktor Chelyabinsk 4, Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod 3

September 9, 2013

Metallurg Novokuznetsk 3, Amur Khabarovsk 1

Sibir Novosibirsk 3, Admiral Vladivostok 2

September 10, 2013

Lev Praha 3, Medvescak Zagreb 1

Dinamo Minsk 2, Slovan Bratislava 0

CSKA Moscow 4, Donbas Donetsk 1

Dinamo Riga 3, Spartak Moscow 1

Dynamo Moscow 4, Salavat Yulaev Ufa 1

Vityaz Podolsk 1, Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk 0

Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod 5, Metallurg Magnitogorsk 0

Ak Bars Kazan 3, Traktor Chelyabinsk 2 (OT)

Barys Astana 5, Lokomotiv Yaroslavl 3

Avtomobilist Yekaterinburg 3, Atlant Moscow Oblast 2 (SO)
SKA St. Petersburg 5, Yugra Khanty-Mansiysk 1

Avangard Omsk 4, Severstal Cherepovets 3 (SO)

September 11, 2013

Admiral Vladivostok 2, Metallurg Novokuznetsk 1 (OT)

Sibir Novosibirsk 3, Amur Khabarovsk 2 (SO)

30 Teams, 30 Days - Edmonton Oilers

The rebuilding project has been going on for what seems like forever now in Edmonton, who hasn't made the playoffs since their run to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2006. Their seven year drought is the longest in the NHL, and with the new Pacific Division comes difficult opponents on a nightly basis. Seeing more of the Kings, Sharks, Ducks, and Coyotes isn't good for your playoff hopes when you don't have much of a defense. Not all is bad for the Oilers, who have a top six that can compete with anyone and a decent netminder in Devan Dubnyk. I think this season will be a good litmus test of where this team is and what we can expect them to be like in 2-3 years.

Projected Forward Lines:

Taylor Hall - Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - Jordan Eberle
David Perron - Sam Gagner - Nail Yakupov
Ryan Smyth - Boyd Gordon - Ales Hemsky
Ryan Jones - Anton Lander - Jesse Joensuu
Mike Brown - Andrew Miller

Look at all that talent and goal scoring stacked up front. RNH will be out for roughly the first 15 games, possibly more if his recovery from a torn labrum is slow. That's why I predicted the Oilers will carry 14 forwards and 7 defensemen instead of 13 and 8. They'll have to look to the farm system early on to find another center to fill the void. Gagner will move up to the 1C spot in RNH's absence. The Oilers play in Rexall Place, home to the fastest ice in the NHL (fun fact: it's also the only "upside down" rink in the NHL, where the benches are on the bottom of the screen for broadcasts instead of the top), and the great ice has benefited their skaters tremendously over the years. This is a top-heavy group that will score a ton of goals, but are they good enough on the other end of the ice to keep the puck out of their own net? I don't think so. They're just not responsible enough defensively yet. Bringing in Gordon will help them win faceoffs and the trade for Perron gives them even more speed (as if they needed it), so yet again the forward group in Edmonton will be fun to watch.

Projected Defensive Pairings:

Jeff Petry - Ladislav Smid
Justin Schultz - Andrew Ference
Nick Schultz - Denis Grebeshkov
Philip Larsen

To say that this team is "zero defense" probably isn't fair to them, but this is about as non-defensive as a blueline can be. Recognizing this, the front office went out and signed Ference, who has spent the last seven years in Boston. He's still pretty good, but he's up there in age and hasn't had the easiest time staying healthy. Last year was just the second time in his career that he appeared in every game. As far as improving the defense goes, it's difficult to do that when your top nine ties up $38.4 million out of the $64.3 cap and your top three defensemen account for a little less than $11 million. Add in the fourth liners ($3.3 million total), Ference ($3.25 million) and Dubnyk ($3.5 million), and you have a cash-strapped franchise that really hasn't been smart about its money. Allowing 2.73 goals per game isn't going to get it done this year. You can't start an offensive rush if you can't get the puck out of your own end, and that's the biggest thing this unit has to improve on.

Goaltending:

Devan Dubnyk
Jason LaBarbera

Continuing the lack of defensiveness theme, Dubnyk saw almost 30 shots per game last season. It got worse when former backup Nikolai Khabibulin was in net, because the Oilers averaged 32.8 shots against a year ago, which was the second highest total in the NHL. His .920 save percentage in 2012-13 is a good number, but due to all the rubber he faced it came at the expense of a 2.57 GAA. Look at the other goalies in this division: Jonas Hiller, Jonathan Quick, Mike Smith, Antti Niemi, Roberto Luongo, and Karri Ramo. The jury's out on Ramo until we see him perform this year, so is there anyone else on this list who you could say that Dubnyk is going to outperform? I'd like to see him on a team that plays good defense, like Detroit, St. Louis, or Columbus. He's never going to put up impressive numbers in Edmonton. Not the way this team is currently constructed.

Special Teams:

At 20.1%, the Oilers were tied for the 7th-best power play in the NHL last year. It's easy to see why, with all the offense they have. It's feasible that their success rate climbs this year, because of the addition of Perron to the mix. The biggest question mark of the early season will be who centers the second unit. Gordon could suffice in that role, though I'm sure the Oilers would love to save him for penalty kills due to his faceoff and shot blocking prowess (see below for the latter). Amazingly, they were 9th on the penalty kill as well. It's uncommon that a team finishes in the top ten in both PP and PK and winds up missing the playoffs, but the Oilers are not a good 5 on 5 team. Discipline was a bit of an issue too, as they were -6 on the special teams differential.

X-Factor:

The obvious choice here is the health of Nugent-Hopkins. As stated earlier, he's out until at least the beginning of November while recovering from his torn labrum. If he comes back and regains his scoring touch (I know he prefers to set up his teammates, but he only had 4 goals in 40 games last year), then the Oilers might be able to surprise this year. Another key factor for this team is how Ference affects the rest of the defense. If he mentors the younger defensemen in the lineup and takes on a leadership role, there might be progress here.

The Oilers will make the playoffs if...

... RNH comes back hot, they get better when playing 5 on 5 (-9 last year), and the defense stops hanging Dubnyk out to dry. Offense starts with responsible defense, and the Oilers got hemmed in their own zone far too often last year. I think they need to cycle more in the offensive zone too. The one thing I took from the Oilers games I watched last year is that they're much more likely to shoot off the rush and go one and done than work the puck around for a better opportunity. There's also the small matter of having five teams in their division who all have the chops to make deep playoff runs this season. If one of them severely falters, the Oilers might become a factor in the wild card race, but that's as far as I think they'll get this season.

The Oilers will miss the playoffs if...

... this team continues to look like it's on the rebuild, the majority of the chances are for the other team, and the team can't stay healthy. Edmonton was outshot in 35 of its 48 games last year. That has to change if they want to go anywhere this season. The proof is in the pudding: when they were even or outshooting their opponents, they were 8-3-2. They can't afford to get stuck in their own zone and wind up taking bad penalties or giving up goals. They need to play better in front of Dubnyk and they need better offensive tactics than run-and-gun. Playing at Rexall Place is no excuse for getting into track meets with opposing teams. I don't like the way the front office has been spending, either. They're basically forced to make a trade or two at the deadline if the team goes south, that is if they want to improve their defense for the future.

30 Teams, 30 Days - Detroit Red Wings

Oh, how the Red Wings wish they could go back to the Conference Semifinals. They had a 3-1 series lead on the eventual champion Blackhawks, they were playing over their heads, and they appeared poised to battle for a shot at the Cup... but then the wheels fell off, they lost the final three games of the series, and the Wings were left to lick their wounds. They wasted little time this offseason, signing Daniel Alfreddson and Stephen Weiss to bolster their forward depth. They are, however, currently over the salary cap, though that can be remedied by sending either Tomas Tatar or Danny DeKeyser down to the minors (DeKeyser would save them more money). The move to the Eastern Conference puts them with the old Northeast teams and the Florida teams in what is now known as the Atlantic Division (there's just about nothing Atlantic about it except Boston), and I think they'll do quite nicely there. These may not be your father's Red Wings anymore, but they're still a potent team whose incredible run of 22 straight years with a playoff berth should continue.

Projected Forward Lines:

Henrik Zetterberg - Pavel Datsyuk - Daniel Alfredsson
Johan Franzen - Stephen Weiss - Gustav Nyquist
Tomas Tatar - Darren Helm - Todd Bertuzzi
Justin Abdelkader - Joakim Andersson - Drew Miller
Jordin Tootoo - Mikael Samuelsson

This depth chart assumes that the Wings shed some money through burying people in the minors, making a trade, or trying to bury contracts only to have the players not clear waivers. The top forwards on this team are up there in age, but the Red Wings front office has already begun shaping this roster for the future. Nyquist and Tatar are future top line players, and they have some of the best in the business to learn under. Zetterberg and Datsyuk are still a deadly duo, and with Alfredsson now joining them, this is a line that will outwit and undress opposing defenses. Weiss comes over from the Panthers and will center the second line, alongside Franzen and Nyquist, giving them a good balance of power, finesse, and shooting ability. Abdelkader will continue to punish opponents, but I believe that he needs to assert himself in other areas of the game in order to become a better player.

Projected Defensive Pairings:

Niklas Kronwall - Jonathan Ericsson
Jakub Kindl - Kyle Quincey
Brendan Smith - Danny DeKeyser
Brian Lashoff

I feel as though there will be multiple new household names from this bunch after the season ends. Kindl played very well in the playoffs last season and is developing into a solid two-way defenseman. You probably never hear about Ericsson because his partner spends most of his time gaining headlines for his crushing hits on opposing players. Quincey has bounced around a bit in his career, but he's been an adequate player everywhere he's been. I'd like to see him regain his offensive touch that he had in his only season in Los Angeles, when he put up 34 assists. DeKeyser is a responsible player who has good positioning, which will allow Smith to join the rush more often. Overall, the players on the blueline complement each other well and should succeed this year.

Goaltending:

Jimmy Howard
Jonas Gustavsson

Howard has been excellent the past two seasons yet never seems to get the recognition he deserves. Perhaps it's because the NHL is full of great goaltenders right now, but normally a season with a 2.13 GAA and a .923 save percentage warrants at least a nomination for the Vezina trophy. However, in a world where seemingly every year a handful of goalies are playing out of their minds, Howard gets left out in the cold (heh... cold... ice hockey... ice is cold... I'm funny). Anyway, expect another good year from Howard. Gustavsson returns as the backup to Howard, and the man known as "The Monster" should see 20 games this year.

Special Teams:

Detroit's power play was slightly above the league average last season, hitting on 18.4% of their chances, good for 15th in the NHL. Adding Weiss and Alfredsson to that group should help, but as always you worry about chemistry when adding new pieces to a roster that has found previous success. They also did just fine at getting their power play on the ice, finishing second in the league with 185 opportunities. They finished +21 in the penalty battle a season ago, which was one of the best differentials in the league. The penalty kill was no slouch either, finishing 12th and scoring three shorthanded goals. The PKers in Detroit are fast and unafraid to play aggressively, which can cause chaos for opponents.

X-Factor:

This is the most talent up front that the Red Wings have assembled since their 2009 iteration lost to Pittsburgh in the Stanley Cup Finals. The biggest variable for this team is whether they can put it all together in a new division and conference. They won't be the fastest, biggest, youngest, or most dangerous team in the league, but this might be the smartest team you'll find, and oftentimes that's enough to win a lot of games. They may have a lot of miles on them, but they know how to win games and will even invent new ways to win.

The Red Wings will make the playoffs if...

... the established veterans play the way they're supposed to, the younger guys make strides, and the defense asserts itself. This is a very good hockey team that should thrive in the new Atlantic Division. They have solid opponents in Boston, Toronto, Ottawa, and Montreal, but even still a division title is not out of the question for this group. Detroit believes that they have added the right pieces to make another run at the Cup while the window's still open, and while that remains to be seen I think they're better now than they were at the end of last season.

The Red Wings will miss the playoffs if...

... the defense regresses severely and Weiss and Alfredsson don't click with the rest of the team. It almost sounds like sacrilege that anyone would even consider the possibilities that could cause this team to miss the playoffs. However, after last year's scare it has to at least be touched upon. Their 22-year run is by far the longest active streak in the NHL (second place: San Jose, 9 years) and it is also the longest active streak in any of the four major North American sports. This team has the chops to make it 23, but as always in the NHL, it will not be easy.

30 Teams, 30 Days - Dallas Stars

The recent memory of Stars fans is not currently a good one. Dallas has missed the playoffs for five straight seasons now, and they have also undergone an ownership change, a general manager change, and two coaching changes in that time period. The Stars recently rebranded, dropping what were without a doubt the most boring and ugly jerseys in the league in favor of some sharp looking sweaters (see logo above, it's the new one), and they are certainly hoping that with a new look comes a new winning attitude. They were busy in the offseason, addressing their biggest need by bringing in centermen Tyler Seguin and Rich Peverley in a trade with Boston that sent Loui Eriksson to the Bruins, and signing former Oilers captain Shawn Horcoff. They are now, however, not so deep on the wings, but centers are a more valuable commodity.The Stars will be a better team than they were last year.

Projected Forward Lines:

Jamie Benn - Tyler Seguin - Rich Peverley
Ray Whitney - Cody Eakin - Valeri Nichushkin
Erik Cole - Shawn Horcoff - Alex Chiasson
Ryan Garbutt - Vernon Fiddler - Antoine Roussel
Chris Mueller - Lane MacDermid

For the first time since their last playoff appearance, Dallas looks like they're strong down the middle. Seguin will get the 1C role he so desperately coveted in Boston but could not get because of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci, who were far too good to drop on their depth chart. He'll play alongside captain Benn and his teammate from Boston, Peverley. Youth abounds on the right side, with rookies Nichushkin and Chiasson likely to see big roles in their first full seasons. Each one is playing with veterans on his line, so mentoring will be key for guys like Whitney, Horcoff, Cole, and Fiddler. You probably won't see more than Benn and Seguin top the 60-point mark, but there will be plenty of depth scoring with this group. This is a forward group that will find ways to win games, and it will probably be different heroes each time. The most obvious flaw here is consistency, because they can't simply rely on the top line to win games.

Projected Defensive Pairings:

Alex Goligoski - Brenden Dillon
Sergei Gonchar - Stephane Robidas
Kevin Connauton - Trevor Daley
Aaron Rome

This defense will be a factor in the offensive zone for sure. Goligoski and Gonchar are the bombers from the point, and they will each score their fair share of goals. The top pair is pretty well set in stone, but past that it's a toss up. Gonchar will be on the second pairing, but I wonder who he'll wind up playing with. My (complete) guess is Robidas, as he is a good two-way defenseman that will complement Gonchar's more offensive style. Connauton appears ready to step up and make the team as well. He'll be competing with Rome and Jamie Oleksiak for a spot on the team and playing time. Daley provides both a veteran presence and surprising scoring touch to the group, and he'll find a home on the third pair.

Goaltending:

Kari Lehtonen
Dan Ellis

Lehtonen, when healthy, can be one of the best goalies in the NHL. It's great for Dallas, then, that he's been relatively injury-free for the last three years. Ellis was brought in to be the backup, a spot previously held by Richard Bachman, who is now in Edmonton. Lehtonen saw a drop in his stat totals last season, going 16-15-3 with a 2.66 GAA and a .916 save percentage. He should have better offensive support this season, and if he puts up numbers like the ones above again the Stars will need to score plenty to win games. Lehtonen is now the highest-paid player on the team after signing a five-year, $29.5 million contract, and he needs to play like he's deserving of that contract for this team to snap the playoff drought.

Special Teams:

With greater forward depth and Gonchar quarterbacking the power play, their 17% success rate will go up. The Stars were inconsistent with the man advantage last year and in today's NHL you have to be able to punish teams when they take penalties. What makes Dallas a potentially dangerous team with the man advantage this year is that they might be able to wheel out two full units where every player can score. One thing that Dallas has to get better at is discipline. They had the third-most penalty kills (179) in the NHL and were -8 on total special teams chances a season ago. The penalty kill was decent with an 81% success rate, but it's tough to keep your guys fresh when you're killing almost four penalties per game. Having a deeper group of centers should help in this area, with Fiddler and Horcoff getting the bulk of the work.

X-Factor:

Seguin's displeasure with being the 3rd line center is what got him traded out of Boston. Now that he's the man in Dallas, he has to prove that he's capable of being a #1 at this level. He's getting paid to be the best player on this team, and anything less than a career year from him has to be seen as a disappointment. He and Benn have to be the best players for the Stars on a nightly basis if they're going to contend for a playoff spot. They might both have to be point-per-game players this year, especially early on while the kids are still getting up to speed.

The Stars will make the playoffs if...

... the defense and Lehtonen can shoulder the load on nights that the offense doesn't produce, the right wing position doesn't prove to be a liability, and Seguin plays up to his contract. With the move to the Central Division comes all-new opponents for the Stars, and aside from Chicago and St. Louis they have very beatable opponents. It's going to be a race for third involving everyone else in that division, and winning that battle will be huge because I believe that the Pacific will get both wild cards and therefore five teams into the playoffs. If guys like Chiasson and Nichushkin stick and put up 40-45 points, the Stars will have a much better chance of ending their playoff drought.

The Stars will miss the playoffs if...

... Lehtonen gets injured, they fail to find secondary scoring, and Benn or Seguin gets injured. Dallas has a ton of uncertainties heading into this season, and they will not be consistent in the early going. They cannot afford injuries to the forwards or Lehtonen this season. Losing a defenseman wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, as it is their deepest position. Healthy or not, Dallas has to improve their discipline, the power play, and get the rookies up to speed as soon as possible in order to get where they want to be.

30 Teams, 30 Days - Columbus Blue Jackets

Quick, who would you say is the team with the most momentum heading into the 2013-14 season? Chicago and Boston would both be perfectly valid answers, but I'm going to go with Columbus. Last year, the Blue Jackets proved that a bad start can kill your season; so much so that their 4-12-4 start could not be saved, even by a torrid 20-5-3 finish. Columbus finished tied for the final playoff spot in the West, but lost out to Minnesota on the non-shootout wins tiebreaker. This season marks a couple of new beginnings for Columbus in terms of a new conference (Eastern) and a new division (Metropolitan). They'll find the level of play to be roughly even with their old Central rivals, so the Jackets shouldn't suffer much, if at all, due to competition. They made a big splash this offseason when they signed Nathan Horton to a seven year deal worth $37.1 million, though Horton is out for a while after undergoing shoulder surgery in June. Columbus will once again be backstopped by defending Vezina winner Sergei Bobrovsky, and folks around the league are anxious to see if he can duplicate last year's performance.

Projected Forward Lines:

R.J. Umberger - Artem Anisimov - Marian Gaborik
Cam Atkinson - Ryan Johansen - Nathan Norton
Matt Calvert - Brandon Dubinsky - Nick Foligno
Blake Comeau - Mark Letestu - Jared Boll
Derek MacKenzie - Jack Skille

Unless you live in New York or Columbus, there are not a lot of household names on this roster. Off the top of my head, I can name seven players listed in this article who have played for either the Rangers or the Islanders: Anisimov, Gaborik, Dubinsky, Comeau, Wisniewski, Tyutin, and Erixon. I used to jokingly refer to the Jackets' forward group as "Rangers West", but now that the two teams play in the same division the moniker has become obsolete. Looking at this team, they have a number of talented forwards up top, and they're backed by bruisers at the bottom. Dubinsky, Boll, and Foligno are all heavy hitters, and the Jackets can always dress Skille and/or MacKenzie for some added punch. It'll be interesting to see who fills the right wing spot occupied by Horton in his absence. I'm going to go with Calvert, because he has sick hands and can create his own shot.

Projected Defensive Pairings:

Jack Johnson - James Wisniewski
Fedor Tyutin - Nikita Nikitin
Tim Erixon - Dalton Prout
Cody Goloubef

No changes from the end of last season to report here. This is the same group that played well down the stretch, en route to finishing in a three-way tie for 9th in goals allowed. There is a good combination of puck movers and stay-at-home guys here, but they all get involved when in the offensive zone. This solid two-way play on the blueline is something that many teams lack, so it alone proves to be an edge for the Jackets on some nights. There has also been a lot of talk about whether top prospect Ryan Murray will make the team out of training camp; I think he'd be better served playing a full season in the AHL first. Make him a top pairing guy for Springfield so that he learns how to play in that role, then send him up to the big club next year and let him run wild.

Goaltending:

Sergei Bobrovsky
Curtis McElhinney

How do you improve on a Vezina-winning campaign? By silencing the doubters and haters who are all saying that it was a fluke. That is what Bobrovsky hopes to do this season, and he might have to in order to see the playoffs this season. Columbus was ranked 25th in goal scoring last season, so if the offense doesn't make strides this year he's going to have to duplicate his success. The fact that he put up such great numbers (21-11-6, 2.00 GAA, .932 save %) while the Blue Jackets allowed roughly 30 shots on goal per game makes it all the more amazing. The man could use some help from the team in front of him is all I'm saying. McElhinney will be the backup for Columbus, and this will be his first time playing in a Jackets uniform, having spent last season in Springfield.

Special Teams:

One area of the game that the Jackets must look to for improvement is the power play. They were 28th a season ago, and once Horton returns from injury I think that they'll be a more productive unit. The problem for Columbus is that you could say their power play is a poor man's version of Washington's, in that everybody knows where the puck is going for the shot (in this case, Gaborik) and there aren't many other options besides that. They will have to find other outlets for shots and goals to keep opposing PK units honest. The Jackets were good at staying out of the penalty box, as they were shorthanded three times per game on average. They were also +11 in the special teams chances battle, and were the 11th-best team on the penalty kill last season. They should be strong on the kill again this year, with their entire defense returning giving continuity.

X-Factor:

There are two, in my mind: whether or not Bobrovsky can continue his elite level of play and how Horton fares when he returns from injury. If Bobrovsky gets a little more help in the form of shot blocking, a better flow of play from the offense, and a more sustained attack by the Jacket's forwards (they were outshot by 3.2 per game last year), he can succeed again this year. Horton is another story, as shoulder injuries are tough in hockey. If his recovery and therapy go well and he's ready to contribute, then obviously the sooner the better for his return. However, if he struggles at first, I wonder how long the coaching staff goes before they consider juggling the lines. Horton must also show that he's earned his $5.3 million annual salary and to do that he'll have to play like one of the star players on this team, which he is practically by default.

The Blue Jackets will make the playoffs if...

... the defense is up to the challenge of stopping the high-scoring offenses in the Metropolitan Division, the offense gets more pucks to the net, and Bobrovsky has another banner year. Their new division rivals are quite good at putting the puck in the net. Of the seven other teams in the Metropolitan Division, only New Jersey finished in the bottom half of the league in scoring last year. The Jackets' defenders have to be up to the task night in and night out for this team to succeed. Of course, the offense must also improve, as they didn't get enough shots (26.7 per game) to really test opposing defenses and didn't score enough goals. Another thing they must avoid is using their incredible play when entering the third with a lead (13-0-0) as an excuse to park the bus, if you will. Only one other team was undefeated when leading after two, the Rangers at 16-0-0. Bobrovsky was stellar late in games last year but this is a team that absolutely cannot go into the turtle if they have a late lead, because there isn't enough talent and depth to just turn it back on if the game becomes tied.

The Blue Jackets will miss the playoffs if...

... they can't hang with the better teams in the Metropolitan Division, Bobrovsky comes back down to earth, the offense doesn't improve or Gaborik gets injured. One look at the Blue Jackets' roster screams "bubble team" to me. They're going to be a tough team to peg when I'm trying to come up with my season predictions, as I believe they can finish anywhere from 3rd to 7th this season. It's nice to see this franchise look like it's finally turning the corner, but there is still a lot that has to go right for the Blue Jackets to both make the playoffs and win a playoff game, something they have never done in their 13-year history.

30 Teams, 30 Days - Colorado Avalanche

Very little went right for the Avalanche last year, as they were only able to manage 39 points, putting them in last place in the Western Conference. The Draft Lottery was kind to them, however, granting them the #1 pick. However, instead of fulfilling a need by drafting Seth Jones, they went with more offense and picked center Nathan MacKinnon. It was a truly puzzling move that may prove to pay off, but until then the jury is out on Colorado's draft strategy, opting to use five of its seven picks on defensemen but not taking Jones at #1. Colorado brought back an old friend in Alex Tanguay when they received him and Cory Sarich from Calgary in exchange for David Jones and Shane O'Brien. They also signed Andre Benoit for defensive depth. Aside from that, last year's roster is largely unchanged, save for the big hole left by the departure of Milan Hejduk, who may or may not be retiring.

Project Forward Lines:

Ryan O'Reilly - Matt Duchene - Gabriel Landeskog

Alex Tanguay - Paul Stastny - P-A Parenteau

Jamie McGinn - Nathan MacKinnon - Steve Downie

Cody McLeod - John Mitchell - Mark Olver

Patrick Bordeleau - Brad Malone

Goals will not be a problem for the Colorado forwards this season. This is a loaded top nine when healthy, but health has not been the Avs' strong suit lately. Downie only appeared in two games last season before suffering a torn ACL. The now-departed Hejduk missed 19 games. Stastny missed eight. Landeskog missed 12. Colorado has to avoid the injury bug this year if they want to succeed. Barring injuries, there is a huge amount of potential in this group and I expect to see marked improvement in the offensive numbers this season. They are deep down the middle and have a variety of skills on the wings. Parenteau will be a distributor and should figure big time on the power play. Duchene can do a little bit of everything. The rest of the forwards have to step up, though. Parenteau and Duchene each had 43 points last season, but no one else had more than 24 (Stastny, McGinn was next with 22). The work in the offensive end combined with the talent level needs to show results, or else it might be time to blow it up and rebuild around Landeskog, Duchene, and MacKinnon.

Projected Defensive Pairings:

Jan Hejda - Tyson Barrie

Ryan Wilson - Erik Johnson

Matt Hunwick - Cory Sarich

Andre Benoit

It's no secret that bad defense negatively impacts the offense, and Colorado was pretty terrible without the puck last year. Colorado only made small changes to the lower pairings, acquiring Sarich and signing Benoit while trading O'Brien and letting Greg Zanon walk in free agency. Looking at the group they plan to send out on opening night, it's really only marginally better than it was last year. There isn't much reason to expect improvement from the defense this year. Who quarterbacks the power play? Who kills penalties? Who can be relied on for big third period minutes? Seth Jones could have done one or more of those things if Colorado had drafted him first overall, but instead they passed and went with MacKinnon. This group has to be better at getting out of their own zone and not allowing chances; giving up over 31 shots per game is not going to get the job done.

Goaltending:

Semyon Varlamov

Jean-Sebastien Giguere

In all fairness, Varlamov was hung out to dry a bunch last year, but he did regress badly and he still hasn't come close to playing at the level he was showing in Washington. His goals against was above 3 (ouch), his save percentage was only .903 (double ouch), and he was 11-21-3 (somebody call a doctor) in 35 starts. The blame falls equally on him and the defense, in my estimation. At 36 years old, Giguere is beginning to approach the end of his career, but he's definitely one of the best backups in the league. I'm sure if you asked him, he'd say he still thinks he can be a starter in the NHL. Then again, if you ask him after a loss you might get a response similar to this tirade that occurred late last season following a 3-1 loss to Calgary at the Pepsi Center (it's well worth the read). I think his words struck the correct chords, but sometimes work ethic just isn't enough and I think in this case the defense's problem is talent.

Special Teams:

Colorado was not the most disciplined team last year, taking 12.5 PIM per game (22nd). Furthermore, they were -43 in total special teams opportunities, which was the worst in the NHL. The conversion rates of their power play (24th) and their PK (T-20th) didn't help matters either. That has to get cleaned up as soon as possible. They're another one of those teams that on paper look like they should have a top 5 power play, but said result simply hasn't happened yet. They were, however, tied for 9th in 2011-12. They can plug almost anyone in on the power play, but the penalty kill is concerning. Mitchell and McGinn will be killing, but past that I'm not sure who the Avs put in on their second unit. The same goes for the defense, where it should be Hejda and Sarich on the first team, but an unknown on the second. Wilson and Hunwick? I'm not sure. It would seem that training camp and the preseason will deliver answers to my questions, so we'll have to wait and see.

X-Factor:

The biggest variable in Colorado's formula for success is mistakes. Can they play well enough in their own end to cut the number down drastically? Based on the lineup changes, I say they'll be better, but not good enough. When I watched them play last season, I saw a team that was disjointed, even discombobulated in its own zone. I refuse to call them lazy or unmotivated or whatever word you would attribute to this sort of thing, but they didn't make the right plays often last year. Having a new coach will hopefully bring about positive change, and the fact that it's Patrick Roy can't hurt. I suppose that he's the X-Factor here. How quickly can he bring about a new mentality and a new culture for this team?

The Avalanche will make the playoffs if...

... the defense bails out the front office's idiotic decision to pass on Jones, Varlamov plays like he did in Washington and the forwards stay healthy. Make no mistake; this division is definitely weak enough for Colorado to make a move. After Chicago and St. Louis, it's wide open in the Central. The rest of the field has their strengths, but they also have damning flaws. Colorado is not without theirs, but if they score enough goals and play responsibly, a surprise playoff berth is not completely out of the question. Having a new coach and likely a new system will help, as the defense would be hard pressed to do worse than last year. If it all comes together, they could be a bubble team.

The Avalanche will miss the playoffs if...

... there are more growing pains than expected in Roy's first year behind the bench, the defense continues to make grievous errors in their own end, and Varlamov can't find his form again. It's difficult for me to say that Colorado is anything more than slightly better this year, based on their relative lack of changes to the lineup. However, if this front office feels they can win with this group of forwards (they absolutely can) and this defense (they definitely cannot), then let's see what happens. It all adds up to a team that will be breathtaking to watch on offense, but utterly infuriating in their own end. I hope Colorado fans have good health insurance, because this is the NHL's version of the Cardiac Kids.