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Friday, September 6, 2013

30 Teams, 30 Days - Chicago Blackhawks








You can pretty much pick and choose what you thought was the one single highlight of the Chicago Blackhawks season and have a valid claim. You could choose their epic run of 24 games, which was half of the shortened season, without a regulation loss. You could pick their regular season record of 36-7-5, getting 77 of an available 96 points (80.2%). Maybe it was their 11-point cushion on the rest of the conference, 17 on their division, and the Presidents' Trophy. Or perhaps their comeback from being down 3-1 against Detroit in the Conference Semifinals. What most people would say, including the players, coach Joel Quenneville, and the team personnel, is of course the Stanley Cup they won. Chicago defeated Boston in a thrilling six games, including their furious comeback in the third period of Game 6, scoring twice in a span of 17 seconds to win it all. Just like they did in 2010, the Blackhawks parted ways with several role players this offseason, and what's left is the same core with different supporting parts trying to repeat.

Projected Forward Lines:

Patrick Sharp - Jonathan Toews - Patrick Kane
Bryan Bickell - Brandon Pirri - Marian Hossa
Brandon Saad - Andrew Shaw - Jeremy Morin
Marcus Kruger - Michal Handzus - Brandon Bollig
Jimmy Hayes - Ben Smith

With Viktor Stalberg, Dave Bolland, Michael Frolik, and Daniel Carcillo gone, the opportunity is there for some of the younger players to step in and make an impact this season. Enter Brandon Pirri, who scored 75 points in 76 games for Rockford of the AHL. He appears ready to step into a top six role and should center Marian Hossa, so he'll have chances to fill the stat sheet on a nightly basis. The top line remains the most dangerous, though perhaps they swap Sharp and Bickell to balance them a bit better. The third line will serve as the energy line, with three kids leading the charge, and the fourth is a traditional checking line. The Blackhawks are one of the few teams that can roll four lines against any team, at any time, in any situation, and that is quite possibly the best luxury to have in hockey. The #2 ranked offense in the NHL will yet again be a force to be reckoned with.

Projected Defensive Pairings:

Duncan Keith - Brent Seabrook
Niklas Hjalmarsson - Johnny Oduya
Nick Leddy - Michal Rozsival
Sheldon Brookbank

No changes on the backend to report, and that's for the best, since they allowed the fewest goals in the league last year. Nick Leddy is a guy who has greatly improved since he came into the league. Once a liability in his own end, he has now become a responsible puck mover. Hjalmarsson just inked himself a new five-year extension worth $20.5 million. It's a small raise over what he was already making ($600K more per year), but it's well deserved for the man called "Hammer" by Chicago fans. Keith and Seabrook are the best top pair in the NHL, bar none. They got it done in their own zone every night and were impressive offensively as well. The duo combined for 47 points (11G-36A), a +28 rating, and five power play goals. They're ready to do it again, so I think it's fair to say that the rest of the league is on notice.

Goaltending:

Corey Crawford
Nikolai Khabibulin

Not to be forgotten on the extension talk, Corey Crawford recently signed a 6-year, $36 million contract that kicks in next year. He had a stellar campaign, going 19-5-5 in 30 games while putting up a 1.94 GAA and a .926 save percentage (16-7, 1.84/.932 in the playoffs). With Ray Emery now in Philadelphia, Crawford will get a bigger share of the starts. I'm expecting him to play about 65 games, with veteran backup Khabibulin getting the rest of the calls. Crawford was helped greatly by the defense last year, as the Blackhawks finished 4th in the NHL in shots against. The only question here is how the short summer will affect him and if it will cause a slow start. Either way, the Blackhawks should be fine in net.

Special Teams:

Chicago will definitely look to improve its success on the power play this season. They were 19th in the NHL last year, which means they definitely underachieved, given the talent level present. I honestly don't see a scenario where the Blackhawks aren't better on the man advantage. With Kane, Toews, Sharp, Hossa, Keith, Seabrook, Saad, Pirri, Bickell, Leddy, and whoever else they decided to roll out there, this group is too good to fail again on these opportunities. The penalty kill was a much different and better story last year. Chicago finished 3rd and with the entire defense corps coming back this season, they are poised to remain in the top five. The forward units are a bit cloudy with the departures, but they should be able to figure out who will be on the PK in training camp and the preseason. They say that your best penalty killer needs to be your goalie, and Crawford is about as good as anyone to have back there. Expect to see a good number of kills credited to his play in net.

X-Factor:

I think the X-Factor for Chicago is Bickell. He scored 17 goals in his first full season for Chicago, but that number has dipped to nine in each of the past two campaigns. He has an elevated role this year in the top six, and he has to step it up offensively and provide them with reliable secondary scoring and depth. Of course, when you want your scoring numbers to increase, you can't do much better than Kane, Toews, and Hossa as potential linemates. If his sets new career highs, then there's no doubt in my mind that the Blackhawks are the favorites to win the Western Conference.

The Blackhawks will make the playoffs if...

... they don't go down in a plane crash. Chicago is the best team in a weak division, and they along with St. Louis will have a healthy cushion on the rest of the field. As I was writing this post, I sat here and thought of possibilities that would cause Chicago to miss the playoffs... I'm coming up empty. They get to play everyone in their division not named the St. Louis Blues 24 times this year. To say they're going to fatten up on the Central Division is an understatement. Chicago is going to lay waste to the competition and win the division, and potentially more.

The Blackhawks will miss the playoffs if...

... every single star player on this team and most of the depth players gets injured, the aforementioned plane crash happens, or both... can't be too careful. Chicago is easily the biggest mortal lock to make the postseason in the NHL. I'd bet the farm on it.

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