Last offseason, the Wild made two huge moves by signing Zach Parise and Ryan Suter to identical 14-year, $100 million contracts. The signings were expected to make them into a contender overnight, and the Wild nearly won the Northwest Division, finishing four points behind champion Vancouver. Their playoff run was almost over before it began. They lost to Chicago in five games in the first round, and didn't have starting goalie Niklas Backstrom after he injured himself during the Game 1 warmups. He underwent surgery for a sports hernia back in May and after signing a new contract, he appears ready to return to form. Minnesota added more offense by trading Cal Clutterbuck and a third round pick (which became goalie Eamon McAdam) to the Islanders for Nino Niederreiter. They also allowed Pierre-Marc Bouchard to walk in free agency, and he joined Clutterbuck on Long Island. Matt Cullen also left, he is now in Nashville. There will be younger players in elevated roles this season, and they might make the difference between a second straight trip to the playoffs and a spring spent golfing.
Projected Forward Lines:
Zach Parise - Mikko Koivu - Jason Pominville
Dany Heatley - Kyle Brodziak - Charlie Coyle
Matt Cooke - Mikael Granlund - Jason Zucker
Torrey Mitchell - Zenon Konopka - Mike Rupp
Jake Dowell - Nino Niederreiter
I know, I know. Coyle and Granlund are more offensively talented players than Brodziak. Granlund will probably be the 2C by season's end. I like Brodziak there for his experience, at least in the early going. The top line could potentially be one of the best in the NHL, and there's a lot of pressure on them to be just that. Minnesota has the defense of a serious contender, but if they can't find enough goals then they're going to struggle. Minnesota has never been a high scoring team and has always been built around keeping the puck out of their net. They could really use a resurgence from Heatley this season, and I'm talking in the neighborhood of 40 goals. He has just 61 goals combined in the last three years, so he absolutely must step it up if the Wild are going to progress this season.
Projected Defensive Pairings:
Ryan Suter - Jonas Brodin
Clayton Stoner - Jared Spurgeon
Keith Ballard - Jonathon Blum
Marco Scandella
Minnesota has one of the better defense corps in the NHL. Brodin's coming out party last year was vital to their success, as he played huge minutes for them down the stretch and helped get them into the playoffs. Not much scoring from him, but that's the theme of this defense. This is not a backend that will put up gaudy offensive totals. They're all responsible in their own end, rarely get caught out of position, and pride themselves on their bend-but-don't-break philosophy. Minnesota finished 6th last year in shots against at 27.1 per game. The Wild were near the bottom of the league in hits, takeaways, and blocked shots last season, so there are three areas to improve on for this defense. They have to be more physical and help the goalies out more.
Goaltending:
Niklas Backstrom
Josh Harding
Backstrom signed a three-year deal this offseason for what was effectively a hometown discount ($10.25 million) and he looks to come back healthy and improve upon his iffy .909 save percentage from a year ago. He displayed Vezina-caliber form in his earlier years in the NHL, but at 35 he's likely on his last contract. Josh Harding is an incredible story, winning the Bill Masterton trophy for perseverance after being diagnosed with multiple sclerosis during last season. He stepped in for the injured Backstrom in last year's first round loss and played admirably, earning praise league-wide for his grit and determination. Harding has made it clear that he isn't going to let his ailment beat him and that he will continue to play in the NHL for as long as he can.
Special Teams:
Minnesota finished 16th in the NHL on the power play, putting up a 17.9% efficiency rate. To me, the major hole on the power play is the blueline. They don't have a true power play quarterback, or even one defenseman who they can count on to produce offensively. They're going to have to find someone, whether it's Suter, Brodin, Scandella, or Spurgeon, who they can count on in those situations to score goals and set teammates up. It helped that the Wild were +16 on special teams differential and were shorthanded the fewest times (135) in the NHL last year. It helped hide their below average penalty kill, which was 18th in the league at 80.7%. Someone will have to emerge as a solid penalty killer for that unit to improve this season.
X-Factor:
The special teams are the key to success for the Wild this season. They were mediocre last year and that can't happen again if they're going to return to the playoffs. They have talented offensive players at the top and eager youth elsewhere in the lineup, but somehow it just hasn't clicked on the power play. Granlund, Coyle, and Zucker will have to make an impact with the man advantage this year. On the penalty kill, the fourth line plus Cooke should make up the forward lines, and if they can get it together this season then they should see significant gains in their kill rate. The blueline isn't to blame for the low PK percentage at all, they just need to maintain the status quo.
The Wild will make the playoffs if...
... secondary scoring is found, the special teams improve, the top line stays healthy, and Backstrom plays closer to the level he was at when he first entered the NHL. I'm going to beat this to death in every Central team's preview, but the race for the third and final automatic playoff spot is wide open. There isn't much separating this team from the likes of Dallas, Nashville, Winnipeg, or even Colorado. The Wild are one of the safer picks out of the remaining five Central clubs to make the playoffs this year, but this team is an injury to Koivu or Parise away from getting a lottery pick. They're already thin offensively and cannot afford to lose anyone from their top line.
The Wild will miss the playoffs if...
... the offense continues to struggle, there are injuries to the top six, and Backstrom can't recapture the glory days. We know that the top line of Parise, Koivu, and Pominville will produce. That's a given. However, from the second line on down the depth chart are a lot of question marks. Can Heatley revive his career this season? How much can Granlund, Coyle, and Zucker improve in their first full seasons? Will someone on the blueline emerge as an offensive threat? Can Cooke stay on the ice without playing dirty? Will Brodin have a sophomore slump? I'm excited to find out about all of these things, and you should be too.
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