The Maple Leafs were only a couple of short minutes away from completely changing the complexion of last year's playoffs. They led Boston 4-2 late in the third period of their Game 7, at TD Garden, but blew the lead before losing in overtime. Toronto would have played the Rangers next, so who knows how far they might have gone? A fixture in the playoffs during the 1990s, the Leafs had fallen on hard times in recent years. Last year's playoff berth was their first since before the 2004-05 lockout canceled that entire season. This year, they're out to prove that it wasn't a fluke and reach the postseason for a second straight year.
Projected Forward Pairings:
Joffrey Lupul - Nazem Kadri - Phil Kessel
James van Riemsdyk - Tyler Bozak - David Clarkson
Mason Raymond - Dave Bolland - Nikolai Kulemin
Joe Colborne - Jay McClement - Colton Orr
Trevor Smith - Frazer McLaren
Gone are Mikhail Grabovski (bought out) and Matt Frattin (traded to the Kings), in are Bolland, Raymond, and Clarkson. Overall, Toronto's forward unit should have more offensive punch, while keeping the literal punch with Orr in the fold. I believe that Kadri is their best center, and potentially best player overall, so I've slotted him on the first line. The recent signing of Raymond was a nice get for this club; he had been sitting on the free agent market for far too long. Bolland, who was the hero of Chicago's frenzied comeback against Boston in Game 6 to clinch the Cup, should see time on special teams as well as providing depth scoring and physical play.
Projected Defensive Pairings:
Dion Phaneuf - Carl Gunnarsson
Jake Gardiner - Cody Franson
John-Michael Liles - Korbinain Holzer
Paul Ranger
You won't hear many people talking about it, but Toronto has assembled themselves a nice defensive corps. Of course, they need to improve on last year's 17th place finish in goals against, but I think they'll do better than last year, especially because Gardiner has a year of NHL experience under his belt. He's already made some highlight reel plays in this league and it's nice to seek out Toronto highlights for a reason other than "holy crap, Phaneuf just laid somebody out." Holzer is a steady player who should fit in nicely on the bottom pair.
Goaltending:
James Reimer
Jonathan Bernier
This situation simply baffles me. Reimer had a very good season and got this team to the playoffs for the first time in nine years, and so the Leafs made the obvious logical choice and traded for a backup goaltender who everyone seems to think should be a starter. I'm not sure about the rationale there. Did they want to motivate Reimer in camp to maybe get him to reach new heights? Are they that fickle with the goalie position? Do they really believe that Bernier is the better keeper? Whatever the case, get ready for a roller coaster ride in Toronto. Both are worth picking up in fantasy, but I hope that for the team's sake and for his own that Reimer wins the job and keeps it. He's earned it.
Special Teams:
Toronto was respectable on the power play last year, finishing 14th in the NHL at 18.7%. They have enough talent up front to be at least as good this season, but I wonder if there's someone to run the second unit. I have to figure that Liles will quarterback the first, as he's probably the best offensive defenseman they have, but who takes the second? Gardiner? Should be interesting to watch as the season progresses. Their +9 differential was also a nice number from last year, but here's a better one: 87.9%. That was their penalty kill percentage from last year, good enough to put them 2nd in the league, behind Ottawa. While it's tough to expect that high of a percentage again, they should still be stingy while shorthanded.
X-Factor:
How hungry is this team? Sometimes when teams end a long playoff drought, they get a bit complacent and miss the next season. For this reason, I think the roster shakeup was the best thing for this team. It brings in fresh faces, like someone who just won a Cup (Bolland), someone who played for a Cup two years ago (Clarkson), and someone whose team was a perennial upper seed entering the playoffs but couldn't get it done (Raymond). It'll be important for coach Randy Carlyle to get to the younger players and tell them that last year was good, but don't be satisfied because they didn't reach the ultimate prize.
The Maple Leafs will make the playoffs if...
... they play as well as they did last year at all positions, the newcomers mesh well with the established group, and there isn't a goaltending controversy at some point during the season. This is a critical season for Toronto. They have to prove to the doubters and naysayers out there that last year was no fluke and that they're here to stay. All of the big contributors from last season's run are back, and the new additions give them extra depth and offensive ability. It's something that they were already good at last year, as they finished 6th in the NHL in scoring, but more goals can't hurt. I don't think they'll ever separate themselves from the pack this season, but they'll be right there in the hunt.
The Maple Leafs will miss the playoffs if...
... they crumble under higher expectations, the goaltending becomes a circus, and we have more incidents like Kessel trying to chop John Scott's leg off. Steadiness is the key word for Toronto this season. They can't afford to get off-kilter and descend into chaos, because that's a recipe for failure. You can't expect the offense to go out there and score over three goals per game like they did last year, so the defense has to step it up if they're going to return to the playoffs. I like their chances of a top-four finish in the Atlantic, but whether that will be enough for a playoff berth depends on what happens in the Metropolitan Division.
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