The rebuilding project has been going on for what seems like forever now in Edmonton, who hasn't made the playoffs since their run to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2006. Their seven year drought is the longest in the NHL, and with the new Pacific Division comes difficult opponents on a nightly basis. Seeing more of the Kings, Sharks, Ducks, and Coyotes isn't good for your playoff hopes when you don't have much of a defense. Not all is bad for the Oilers, who have a top six that can compete with anyone and a decent netminder in Devan Dubnyk. I think this season will be a good litmus test of where this team is and what we can expect them to be like in 2-3 years.
Projected Forward Lines:
Taylor Hall - Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - Jordan Eberle
David Perron - Sam Gagner - Nail Yakupov
Ryan Smyth - Boyd Gordon - Ales Hemsky
Ryan Jones - Anton Lander - Jesse Joensuu
Mike Brown - Andrew Miller
Look at all that talent and goal scoring stacked up front. RNH will be out for roughly the first 15 games, possibly more if his recovery from a torn labrum is slow. That's why I predicted the Oilers will carry 14 forwards and 7 defensemen instead of 13 and 8. They'll have to look to the farm system early on to find another center to fill the void. Gagner will move up to the 1C spot in RNH's absence. The Oilers play in Rexall Place, home to the fastest ice in the NHL (fun fact: it's also the only "upside down" rink in the NHL, where the benches are on the bottom of the screen for broadcasts instead of the top), and the great ice has benefited their skaters tremendously over the years. This is a top-heavy group that will score a ton of goals, but are they good enough on the other end of the ice to keep the puck out of their own net? I don't think so. They're just not responsible enough defensively yet. Bringing in Gordon will help them win faceoffs and the trade for Perron gives them even more speed (as if they needed it), so yet again the forward group in Edmonton will be fun to watch.
Projected Defensive Pairings:
Jeff Petry - Ladislav Smid
Justin Schultz - Andrew Ference
Nick Schultz - Denis Grebeshkov
Philip Larsen
To say that this team is "zero defense" probably isn't fair to them, but this is about as non-defensive as a blueline can be. Recognizing this, the front office went out and signed Ference, who has spent the last seven years in Boston. He's still pretty good, but he's up there in age and hasn't had the easiest time staying healthy. Last year was just the second time in his career that he appeared in every game. As far as improving the defense goes, it's difficult to do that when your top nine ties up $38.4 million out of the $64.3 cap and your top three defensemen account for a little less than $11 million. Add in the fourth liners ($3.3 million total), Ference ($3.25 million) and Dubnyk ($3.5 million), and you have a cash-strapped franchise that really hasn't been smart about its money. Allowing 2.73 goals per game isn't going to get it done this year. You can't start an offensive rush if you can't get the puck out of your own end, and that's the biggest thing this unit has to improve on.
Goaltending:
Devan Dubnyk
Jason LaBarbera
Continuing the lack of defensiveness theme, Dubnyk saw almost 30 shots per game last season. It got worse when former backup Nikolai Khabibulin was in net, because the Oilers averaged 32.8 shots against a year ago, which was the second highest total in the NHL. His .920 save percentage in 2012-13 is a good number, but due to all the rubber he faced it came at the expense of a 2.57 GAA. Look at the other goalies in this division: Jonas Hiller, Jonathan Quick, Mike Smith, Antti Niemi, Roberto Luongo, and Karri Ramo. The jury's out on Ramo until we see him perform this year, so is there anyone else on this list who you could say that Dubnyk is going to outperform? I'd like to see him on a team that plays good defense, like Detroit, St. Louis, or Columbus. He's never going to put up impressive numbers in Edmonton. Not the way this team is currently constructed.
Special Teams:
At 20.1%, the Oilers were tied for the 7th-best power play in the NHL last year. It's easy to see why, with all the offense they have. It's feasible that their success rate climbs this year, because of the addition of Perron to the mix. The biggest question mark of the early season will be who centers the second unit. Gordon could suffice in that role, though I'm sure the Oilers would love to save him for penalty kills due to his faceoff and shot blocking prowess (see below for the latter). Amazingly, they were 9th on the penalty kill as well. It's uncommon that a team finishes in the top ten in both PP and PK and winds up missing the playoffs, but the Oilers are not a good 5 on 5 team. Discipline was a bit of an issue too, as they were -6 on the special teams differential.
X-Factor:
The obvious choice here is the health of Nugent-Hopkins. As stated earlier, he's out until at least the beginning of November while recovering from his torn labrum. If he comes back and regains his scoring touch (I know he prefers to set up his teammates, but he only had 4 goals in 40 games last year), then the Oilers might be able to surprise this year. Another key factor for this team is how Ference affects the rest of the defense. If he mentors the younger defensemen in the lineup and takes on a leadership role, there might be progress here.
The Oilers will make the playoffs if...
... RNH comes back hot, they get better when playing 5 on 5 (-9 last year), and the defense stops hanging Dubnyk out to dry. Offense starts with responsible defense, and the Oilers got hemmed in their own zone far too often last year. I think they need to cycle more in the offensive zone too. The one thing I took from the Oilers games I watched last year is that they're much more likely to shoot off the rush and go one and done than work the puck around for a better opportunity. There's also the small matter of having five teams in their division who all have the chops to make deep playoff runs this season. If one of them severely falters, the Oilers might become a factor in the wild card race, but that's as far as I think they'll get this season.
The Oilers will miss the playoffs if...
... this team continues to look like it's on the rebuild, the majority of the chances are for the other team, and the team can't stay healthy. Edmonton was outshot in 35 of its 48 games last year. That has to change if they want to go anywhere this season. The proof is in the pudding: when they were even or outshooting their opponents, they were 8-3-2. They can't afford to get stuck in their own zone and wind up taking bad penalties or giving up goals. They need to play better in front of Dubnyk and they need better offensive tactics than run-and-gun. Playing at Rexall Place is no excuse for getting into track meets with opposing teams. I don't like the way the front office has been spending, either. They're basically forced to make a trade or two at the deadline if the team goes south, that is if they want to improve their defense for the future.
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