Nashville enters this season carrying a ton of players who would be depth forwards on most teams, but instead are forced into top or second line duties due to the rest of the roster. They were quite busy this offseason, signing Matt Cullen, Viktor Stalberg, Matt Hendricks, and Eric Nystrom to contracts. They were also fortunate at the draft; consensus #1 prospect Seth Jones fell right into their laps with the 4th pick after Colorado, Florida, and Tampa Bay -- teams that could all use help on the backend -- passed on him in favor of forwards. Given the state of the team, there will be a mostly open competition for all the forward lines as well as the backup goalie spot behind Pekka Rinne. In a year where their path to the postseason is open, this patchwork forward group and stout defense might be enough to carry them into the playoffs.
Projected Forward Lines:
Viktor Stalberg - Mike Fisher - Patric Hornqvist
Colin Wilson - David Legwand - Filip Forsberg
Nick Spaling - Matt Cullen - Craig Smith
Eric Nystrom - Paul Gaustad - Matt Hendricks
Gabriel Bourque - Richard Clune
Nashville remains a team that has good forward depth in terms of two-way players, but not scoring. The Predators were tied with Florida for the fewest goals scored last season, netting only 109 in 48 games. I for one am not expecting substantial improvement in that category, but the potential is there. It's not like this is a bad group of forwards, I don't think anyone could argue that point. It's just that they lack a big time sniper, a big time playmaker, and a true power forward. Forsberg was acquired at the deadline last year from Washington for Martin Erat, and even though Forsberg has only 5 games of NHL experience, talk amongst scouts is that he's going to be a solid player in the NHL. While they did fill holes in free agency, I can't help feeling like this team would've been better served trying to get a guy like Mike Ribeiro, Mikhali Grabovski, or Michael Ryder. Quality over quantity, I suppose.
Projected Defensive Pairings:
Roman Josi - Shea Weber
Seth Jones - Kevin Klein
Ryan Ellis - Mattias Ekholm
Victor Bartley
The defense, however, is still very stingy. Bit of a down year in their first without Ryan Suter, but they should return to form this year. Josi had a stellar showing at the World Championships, scoring nine points in ten games en route to being named the tournament MVP, even though his Swiss team lost in the gold medal game to Sweden 5-1. Weber is a dangerous two-way defenseman who leads the hit parade as well as launch bombs second only to Zdeno Chara from the point. Jones should step in right away on the second pairing, and having a responsible partner like Klein will help his development. There will be a battle for the 6th slot between Ekholm and Bartley, and that'll be the one to watch in camp.
Goaltending:
Pekka Rinne
Carter Hutton
Rinne was solid yet again in net last year. There had been concerns about how he would perform after the lockout ended because he got lit up in the KHL. A 2.43 GAA and a .910 save percentage are both inferior to his NHL totals, but with an improved defense and a forward corps full of two-way players, his productivity should come back to the mean. The search for a viable backup in Nashville continues, with this season being Hutton's turn to try. I picked him over Hellberg (awesome name, by the way) to make the team because Hellberg is on an entry level contract and wouldn't have to clear waivers.
Special Teams:
Nashville wheeled out a middle of the road power play unit last year, hitting 17.1% of the time and finishing 17th in the NHL for their efforts. Their problem was that they didn't get the man advantage enough, finishing with the third-lowest opportunities (140) in the league. I have a feeling that it's going to be power play by committee this year for the Predators. As stated earlier, they lack big time threats up front. For the lack of chances the power play got, they were still +1 on the differential because they had the third-fewest number of times shorthanded. The penalty kill, however, was awful last year. A 75.5% success rate placed them 29th in the NHL, ahead of only Florida. They added enough speed up front to remedy this, and a better defense will also improve their numbers.
X-Factor:
Oddly enough, I think the biggest X-Factor this team has is one of the two pieces that has been there since the beginning. No, I'm not talking about their career leader in almost every important stat, David Legwand. I'm talking about head coach Barry Trotz. He's the only coach in Nashville's 15-year history, and while I'm not sure that he's on the hot seat this year, the poor performance last season can't be sitting well with him. However, if anyone can get the most out of this team, it's Trotz. Back in the 1993-94 season, the AHL's Portland Pirates were in their inaugural season, and Trotz coached them to a Calder Cup championship. He and Dave Tippett (Phoenix) are the best coaches that nobody has heard of.
The Predators will make the playoffs if...
... someone steps up as a go-to guy, the penalty kill is leaps and bounds better than last year, and Rinne has another Vezina-quality year. Nashville is in the Central Division, where anything can happen this year. Out of the five teams in that group who I don't consider to be playoff locks, Nashville is the most "sneaky good" team there. Allow me to explain. Dallas and Minnesota have star power at the top, with Seguin/Benn and Koivu/Parise, respectively, leading the charge. Colorado is a team who we kind of know what to expect -- good offense, terrible defense, probably not playoff-caliber yet, but they have a chance. Then there's Winnipeg, who shed some dead weight this offseason from a team that had stretches of brilliance last year but fizzled out down the stretch and missed the playoffs, so we can expect another season where they're fantastic at home but below average on the road. So that brings me back to the Predators. I'm going to be honest, I can't peg this team yet. Expectations are low but their grit and determination are what makes me apply the "sneaky good" label to them.
The Predators will miss the playoffs if...
... the defense doesn't improve, nobody emerges from the forward group, and the penalty killing woes continue. Barry Trotz's teams in Nashville rarely beat themselves, but last year was a case study in that exact practice. They were disciplined, as usual, but couldn't get big kills when they needed to and were inept on the offensive side of things. Losing guys like Sergei Kostitsyn (who was bad for the locker room, but he was the most gifted offensive talent on the roster) and Erat hurt, but if Hornqvist comes back healthy and they can major contributions from new acquisitions like Stalberg and Cullen, there's hope. Nashville's front office has assembled a veteran group here, but I'm not sure that mixing their core with multiple teams' spare parts is the right answer.
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